Sammy Watkins has been a polarizing player for fantasy owners since he entered the league.
His lack of size was a point of contention during the draft. Watkins was a productive college receiver but he played in a Clemson offense that didn't ask him to repeatedly run routes downfield. As such, he was a raw prospect. Being a raw prospect typically means being a great athlete. These days, great athletes are generally expected to come with size advantages.
Therefore, when Watkins measured in at 6'1" and 211 lbs at the combine, his 'touchdown output' came under scrutiny for those who believe size leads to scoring.
After his first season in the league, it would have been easy to affirm that initial skepticism. Watkins caught 65 passes for 982 yards and six touchdowns in 16 starts. He dealt with injury issues and bad quarterback play, but his doubters didn't want to hear that because of the success of those who were selected after him. Odell Beckham Jrentered the season injured before becoming arguably the best receiver in the NFL, producing like it too, while Mike Evans' ability to find the endzone was unparalleled.
Watkins wasn't a great rookie receiver, but he was better than his numbers suggested. He was forced to play with quarterbacks who couldn't find him with the football consistently. When they did offer him good service, he had some drop issues but not consistently. He was largely a very impressive rookie receiver. Expectations for Watkins in his second season were much greater. He was consistently drafted in the first five rounds of PPR leagues.
Despite the concerns over his lack of service, Watkins was expected to be a focal point of thbe passing game. A receiver who could consistently put up big numbers by catching the ball in different ways, at different levels of the field.
When Tyrod Taylor became the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, Watkins' stock should have jumped. Taylor isn't a great quarterback by any measure, he's arguably not even a good one. He is average or below average, but that was supposed to be a dramatic upgrade over EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel(/Kyle Orton). In many ways, Taylor has been a spectacular upgrade over those who played before him. His control and explosiveness in Greg Roman's offense has allowed the Bills to place themselves in the playoff race.
Taylor's success hasn't coincided with increased opportunities for Watkins.
After 10 weeks of the season, Watkins has played in six games. In those six games, he has caught 22 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns. His numbers are severely deflated, but his performances have once again been very impressive. In Week 1, Watkins' struggles highlighted a receiver's dependance on his teammates. He was consistently open against Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis, but Taylor's inability/reluctance to throw the ball to him meant that he finished the game with no receptions.
This past week against the New York Jets, Watkins faced a similar situation against a better cornerback. One of the best cornerbacks in the NFL: Darrelle Revis. Revis "held" Watkins to three receptions for 14 yards by following him around the field. In truth, Watkins was extremely unfortunate not to light Revis up for many more receptions and potentially an 80+ yard touchdown reception on the very first play of the game.
Before we look at how the receiver got open, we need to understand why the play failed.
During the game, the commentators criticized Watkins for mistiming his jump. He did mistime his jump, but he did so because of how poorly placed Tyrod Taylor's pass was. Watkins had beaten Revis on a post route when the receiver was overplaying the sideline. He was running infield towards wide open space(highlighted in green). Taylor should have been able to comfortably lead him infield, away from Revis. Instead, he threw a pass that followed the red trajectory in the above image.
Watkins did well to recognize the flight of the ball and locate it arriving too far downfield, over his outside shoulder. Watkins tried to make what would have been a spectacular adjustment, but he couldn't time his jump after working unnaturally against his momentum.
It didn't help that the ball was put in a spot where Revis could recover to it.
For the short term, this is a problem for Watkins. He needs to be taking advantage of these opportunities as they arise and he won't be able to if his service isn't more consistent. He needs Taylor to throw the ball more like he did against the Miami Dolphins than he did against the New York Jets to be productive. What matters more for the long term with Watkins is how he got open rather than why the play failed.
Darrelle Revis isn't the caliber of cornerback he once was, but he is still an intimidating presence on the outside. Watkins was able to consistently highlight the cornerback's declining athleticism, showing off the intensity and exuberance that comes with youth. On this play, he was also able to show off his precision as he ran a crisp post route that completely pushed Revis out of position and opened the field for Taylor to throw the ball into.
While this route took time to develop, it was a two-man play call so the play was designed to give Watkins that kind of time.
Watkins may not have run routes consistently in college, but he has proven to be a natural route runner in the NFL. He understands leverage and positioning while knowing how to exploit defenders with his outstanding athleticism. Watkins' size makes him an ideal route runner because he has size and strength without excess bulk. He is able to lean on smaller cornerbacks while still having the quickness to set them up and explode away from them.
On this play specifically, it appeared that Revis was playing some form of Cover-3 when he expected the deep safety to be closer to him. Regardless, few receivers in the league show off this kind of precision and athleticism to completely neutralize the defensive back in this situation. Watkins' route running down the field is precise and explosive, but so is his ability to release from the line or quickly set up shorter routes.
Because of the pressure the Jets were putting on Taylor in the pocket and his inability to function against it, Watkins didn't have many opportunities to work the field vertically. He did show off his ability to get open underneath though.
Revis isn't a big cornerback. He's never succeeded by being aggressive against receivers at the line of scrimmage like Richard Sherman. He also isn't a weak cornerback though. Revis can stand up to contact, or at least he has historically. Watkins may not be considered a big receiver either, but he has the power to bounce defensive backs off of him at the line of scrimmage. That is what he does on this play.
Watkins' release is slower than he would like, but he comes wide open against Revis' man coverage on his shallow in route. Unfortunately for Watkins, Taylor had thrown the ball to the other side of the field. Revis couldn't have seen the ball being thrown before he turned away, so he was playing the route as if Watkins could get the ball still.
Whenever you create separation against Revis it is notable because he has truly been inseparable from his assignments in the past. On both of the above plays, Watkins creates more separation than expected on quick out routes from the slot. Neither of these plays result in a reception, the only one Watkins has a chance at catching is a rushed pass from Taylor that arrives high and too fast, but they do highlight his athleticism. His quickness and acceleration put him in space away from Revis despite not threatening the defensive back downfield.
Even though he didn't make receptions on these plays, Watkins was able to come free for first down receptions against Revis in similar situations at different points of the game.
On the quick outs, Watkins was simply relying on his acceleration and quickness to turn away from Revis. On these plays, he showed off quick feet and precise action to set the cornerback up before breaking outside. The first comes on Third-and-2 late in the first quarter. Watkins is lined up against Revis in press coverage wide of the numbers to the right. Revis attempts to mirror the receiver through his release, but Watkins is patience as he hesitates before striking to the outside at the perfect time.
Watkins timed his movement perfectly and was so quick that Revis didn't even attempt to recover his position. He knew he was beaten and essentially watched Watkins walk out of bounds.
The defensive back was beaten extremely easily on this play. It was just a well-executed release from the 22-year old. It normally takes something special to beat Revis so comfortably, unless you are a special athlete. Watkins is a special athlete, but he also has some special moves in his locker to expose defenders. When the Bills most needed a play from their primary weapon, Watkins unleashed a devastating move to get free from Revis.
With the Jets in desperate need of a stop, Revis became more aggressive at the line of scrimmage. He engaged Watkins with both hands at the snap, punching him in an attempt to disrupt his release. Watkins very quickly adjusted without conceding any ground or losing his balance. He fluidly shifted his body before throwing Revis to one side with his hands. Having been thrown to one side, Revis is now in recovery mode and Watkins knows it.
The receiver presses the seam aggressively before planting his right foot aggressively to push back towards the sideline.
Revis was making every effort to regian his close proximity to Watkins, so he couldn't plant his foot and turn with the receiver through his route. Instead, Revis was forced to continue upfield, leaving Watkins in wide open space past the first down marker. Taylor had time to deliver his pass without having to throw with anticipation or fit the ball into a tight window. Watkins created that opportunity for him.
He should have had one more reception for a first down much earlier in the game.
On this occasion, Watkins didn't need to be as creative in his release but he did still throw Revis to one side with an outstanding plant and cut infield. Taylor's pass was poorly placed again as Watkins had to reach back and high to try and catch the ball. He should have been able to pull the ball in and turn upfield for a first down even considering the poor ball placement.
Watkins had another first down reception that was negated by a holding penalty.
The Bills relied on a run-heavy offense that used either clearly defined passing plays for Taylor or had plays that were disrupted quickly by pressure. Watkins had very limited opportunities to run routes in this game because of this, yet he was still able to get wide open on a deep pass and create separation for underneath receptions against Revis on a regular basis.
Revis isn't a shutdown cornerback anymore, but not any old receiver is getting the better of him the way Watkins did. His statistical output may not be where it should be at this point, but that is largely for reasons outside of his control. Watkins is a special receiver. He isn't in the shadow of Odell Beckham or Mike Evans. He's just as talented as both. Whether he ever gets the service his talent deserves in Buffalo is undetermined, but if you're solely buying into an individual's talent, Watkins should be one of the main attractions in dynasty leagues.
He may be a polarizing player, but he shouldn't be. Watkins has generational potential and is already showing off superstar talent.
