The offseason is great time for dynasty discussion, player evaluation, and molding an existing team with trades and the in-flux of rookies and priority free agents. Topics like age decline, predictors for the future, the value of rookie picks, and more are allowed to breathe with the additional time. Once the regular season begins, dynasty for the most part turns into redraft mode. Each head-to-head matchup is crucial and instead of analyzing a player’s entire career body of work or the prior season, much of the evaluation turns into a ‘what have you done for me lately’ approach. Like my weekly dynasty podcast, this article will hopefully serve as a voice of reason. It is so easy to get caught up in the small sample sizes that come in the early weeks of the season. Sometimes it is warranted as a player rises to have a breakout season, but by-and-large, the cream will rise to the top over time. At each position, here are some highlights and lowlights from the opening week in the NFL and the action plan as a forward-thinking, not reactionary, dynasty owner.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning was slow to get started against Baltimore, but ended up with a true matchup-winning performance with seven touchdowns. As a quarterback closer to 40 years old than 30, this is probably the high-water mark to deal him. The crux of that decision would be the expectations for a team’s quarterback replacing Manning and what can be had in return. The ideal time to consider trading Manning may be in another few weeks when the contending and pretending teams in the league have declared themselves and/or an injury or two at the position has occurred. In my dynasty values, I have Manning similar to Tom Brady and Tony Romo in total value remaining. It would be tough to ‘move down’ without a real loss of immediate production. An interesting (and productive) move would be to get EJ Manuel and another quality piece for a rebuilding team in return.
Rise of the Mobile Quarterbacks
It was already in effect the past couple seasons and with the impact of Michael Vick prior to that, but 2013 will be the year fantasy football changes for good. Colin Kaepernick followed up his Super Bowl run and a great second half of the 2012 season with a monster game against the Packers. Russell Wilson navigated a tough Carolina front seven for a 76% completion rate and over 300 yards. Both of them did not use much of their top shelf rushing ability this week, but it is coming. EJ Manuel and Terrelle Pryor both completed more than 65% of their passes with Pryor adding 112 rushing yards. Their rushing production gives him a higher floor on a weekly basis and insulates them from anything lower than a QB16 finish for the season in points-per-game. Manuel is providing early returns on a mid-to-late second round rookie pick already and Pryor could have been had much cheaper than that all the way up until a week ago.
Michael Vick is back to his difference-making ways, coming in at QB6 for the week in leagues with six-point passing touchdowns. The Eagle ran their fast-break offense to perfection and Vick had his best fantasy performance since Week 10 of 2011. Vick is the ideal short-term patch job at quarterback as long as he holds up physically. There is a very limited trade market for Vick in most dynasty leagues with the depth of the position and younger options in the QB10-20 range of note. Owners should enjoy the ride or target a future injury to another team's starter to find a suitable trade target.
On the downside, Josh Freeman was already on the hot seat after a rough ending to 2012 and the drafting of Mike Glennon by a front office that has no allegiance to the Freeman. Out of the gate, Freeman completed less than half of his passes against the Jets and, despite one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league, looks genuinely lost at times in the pocket. Another factor to Freeman’s equation is he used to run. The past couple of seasons he has scrambled at less than half the rate of his breakout 2010 season. Inaccurate from the pocket and a lack of rushing production is a formula to be irrelevant at quarterback rather quickly. Ben Roethlisberger is another quarterback that is just beginning what will be a tough season. Losing Maurkice Pouncey is a major blow to an already suspect offensive line and neither Antonio Brown nor Emmanuel Sanders is a safety-shifting presence on the outside or in the red zone. Heath Miller is still out as well and the Steelers are unlikely to have any semblance of a running game. All of that spells trouble. Freeman and Roethlisberger should be on speed dial to trade after their first relatively strong game to a team without a decent backup option for anything of value.
Running Backs
Overall it was an ugly week for the position. Joique Bell, DaRel Scott and Bilal were top-20 PPR options and certainly not in starting lineups. Shane Vereen may have been on most benches as well. Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew were all considered ‘safe’ options going into the week, but finished outside the top-18. Rushing defenses appeared stout and unless the running back is involved in the passing game or seeing huge creases, it was tough sledding on the interior.
Reggie Bush looks like a short-term PPR gold mine with his heavy involvement in the Detroit offense, but 25 touches into the season, he came off the field with hand and groin issues. How long will he hold up? I have my doubts he makes it another month with a similar workload. In addition, he is 28 years old, right at the line for serious career decline for the position. Is Bush the exception? I doubt it.
Chris Johnson owners have to be concerned with what they saw in Week 1. He saw 25 carries, but lacked any opening for his classic big plays. Johnson had no involvement in the passing game and Shonn Greene AND Jackie Battle were sniping away at Johnson’s value with red zone involvement and 12 total carries. Every week is crucial for an older running back and Johnson’s difference-making ceiling is lower than many contending teams were hoping a week ago.
Knowshon Moreno did was some expected out of the gate for the Broncos, which was dominate the snaps and touches out of the backfield when the game was in question against Baltimore. He was dirt cheap in the offseason and now can be an adequate RB2/flex play or leverage to get a trade with a concerned Montee Ball owner.
Giovani Bernard’s progression into significant work may be sooner rather than later. Benjarvus Green-Ellis looked even more plodding and a bad fit for the new look Cincinnati offense than a year ago and had just 29 total yards on 15 touches. On the flip side, Bernard outgained Green-Ellis on just five total touches and actually made plays on his own.
The lack of involvement for Trent Richardson in the passing game was questionable at best with Josh Gordon out of the lineup. Why Chris Ogbonnaya would be giving Richardson a breather in those higher-leverage situations is a mystery to me.
Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Ivory owners have to be very concerned about how they looked and the state of their respective backfields. Bilal Powell and Alfonso Smith got on the field a ton and both teams were in the game all the way through in Week 1, which is not likely on a consistent basis going forward.
The big fish in the room is obviously David Wilson. He fumbled away his first carry, then followed that up with a whiffed block in pass protection and another fumble as the cherry on top. Da’Rel Scott got exclusive playing time from that point forward and now Wilson’s slice of the playing time pie is in question going forward. Given the obvious upside from an athletic standpoint, it is far too early to give up or ‘sell low’ as a Wilson owner. He is just 22 years old, has flashed big play ability (think early C.J. Spiller), and the Giants want and frankly need him to succeed.
Wide Receivers
It was a big week for wide receivers to open the season with 19 receivers having 20 or more PPR points, compared to just ten in Week 1 last year. Anquan Boldin, Jerome Simpson, Leonard Hankerson, and Julian Edelman were the surprise performers with Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, and Greg Jennings the most noteworthy receivers outside the top-50.
Mike Wallace came out of the blocks with a whimper, just one catch on five targets, where Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson collected 25 targets between them. While Wallace will have better days, but I was never a fan of acquiring the speed-based receiver that already saw his peak. Hartline and Gibson are back end of the roster dynasty assets as I would be in a real pinch to ever feel the need to start them. I doubt Tannehill approaches 40 pass attempts many more weeks this season and neither Hartline or Gibson will be approaching 30% of the team total (think Brandon Marshall share) with any predictability.
Kenbrell Thompkins disappointed in his NFL regular season debut. After all the buzz this August, he collected 14 targets (27% of the team total), but corralled just four catches for 42 yards. He looked replaceable athletically, not on the same page with Tom Brady, and Julian Edelman jumped right in as the efficient target over him. Like Zach Sudfeld, the offseason sizzle will prove to be far more overwhelming than the steak of their production this season. Rob Gronkowski will be back soon and Josh Boyce and Aaron Dobson are still seasoning in practice to get their shots on game day.
Marlon Brown could be the regular second receiver in Baltimore with Jacoby Jones out of the lineup. Torrey Smith saw just 13% of the Ravens whopping 62 pass attempts against Denver. Brown had less than 10% once he took over. There will be a big shift in the target distribution in the coming weeks for the Ravens because they will not be in pure catch-up mode late in the game where guys like Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark soak up 22 targets between them.
Jerome Simpson feels like Kevin Ogletree 2013 as the Week 1 breakout performance that means little to nothing going forward. Simpson caught 7-of-8 targets (the rest of the team caught 11-of-20) and accounted for 59% of the team’s receiving yards. We have seen these flashes from Simpson in the past, but the Christian Ponder and the lackluster Vikings passing game are not going to support any receivers that have sustained value. A bigger takeaway from the Vikings game was Cordarrelle Patterson. He barely saw the field on offense, but flashed that oozing athleticism on his lone reception in the red zone and a kickoff return where he nearly broke it for a long gain. Another few weeks of limited involvement from Patterson and he becomes a young player to send out some offers for to gauge the impatience of a fellow dynasty owner.
Kenny Britt looks like a long-term hold because the Titans passing game looks like a fantasy wasteland this season. Nate Washington is still collecting too much action and Locker looked more interested in looking for Delanie Walker when he got outside the pocket instead of his big play maker down the field. Thank goodness Britt is a free agent after this season as any change of scenery would be a big upgrade for Britt in the 2014 offseason.
James Jones already had a disconnection between his expected short-term production and what he was able to draw in the trade market. Now, Jones has a scoreless week under his belt despite 37 pass attempts for the Packers to open the season. A healthy Jordy Nelson for most of the season and Jermichael Finley’s resurrection to fantasy prominence could be stumbling blocks to Jones being that short-term WR3/4. He already saw a ding to his value with impending free agency this coming offseason from the friendly confines of the Green Bay offense and now it looks like he could be farther down the pecking order than originally thought. Buyers beware for those things of acquiring Jones expecting anything more than a short-term flex play.
Hakeem Nicks owners have to be pretty happy after his Week 1 performance. He was a tough sell for top-10 receiver value this offseason with his string of injuries and having an ineffective end to his 2012 season. Nicks had over 100 yards on just eight targets and the Giants look like a team that will need to lean on the passing game more than the ground for the time being. Nicks looked spry out of his breaks and in the open field again, a blast from the past, that certainly gets him back in starting lineups and giving owners the flexibility to make a move if needed.
Harry Douglas has some short-term pop in him if Roddy White is a shell of himself for a couple more weeks, but I would be very skeptical about picking him up (if available) and even more to start him outside of the deepest of leagues.
Miles Austin looks healthy again and I would not be surprised at all if he has a top-24 finish in PPR this season. If the Giants are any indication of upcoming defenses’ approaches to the Dallas offense, a safety will be over the top of Dez Bryant’s side of the field at all times. Austin will see advantageous coverage and he has more than enough short-area quickness to be, along with Jason Witten, the sustaining possession target for Tony Romo.
Tight Ends
Seven, yes seven, tight ends scored over 20 PPR points in Week 1 compared to just one, Jimmy Graham, a season ago. This was without Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez on the field and Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez were not part of the group. Jared Cook and Vernon Davis have flashed in the past, so the question will now be if they can sustain that production for a stretch of time. Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron have been trendy sleepers at one time or another in their careers and put it all together for a big game. Owen Daniels and Kellen Winslow are the names that give great pause before believing they will sustain any element of their Week 1 production.
Julius Thomas had just one career catch entering this week and surprised everyone, and from the looks of it the Ravens secondary as well, with his involvement in the Denver passing game. Thomas had just 17% of the team targets, a decent share for a tight end, but was largely ignored by Baltimore defenders. Thomas is not all that athletic compared to the other young tight ends in the dynasty landscape and his tape from last Thursday’s game supports that. His big debut also came the same week that Eric Decker had one of his worst career games. Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker are easily ahead of Thomas in the pecking order, but most weeks I project Decker to be as well. If there is an owner willing to buy Thomas at TE5 or higher prices, I would be selling this week. He fits in the TE9-12 range of my rankings as he strikes me as more situation-dependent than other options and in the next couple years his situation in one of the best passing offenses in the league will likely be different.
Jordan Cameron led the Browns with 13 targets (25% of the team total) against Miami and is at a minimum the no.2 option in the passing game even when Josh Gordon returns Week 3. Cameron showed all the athleticism expected and will be a sorely needed red zone target when Cleveland decides to use play-action with Trent Richardson occupying the attention of linebackers at the goal line. Double-digit scores are well within reach for Cameron, which would make him a mortal lock for a top-6 finish this season among tight ends.
The time to sell Brandon Pettigrew was long ago. His value is circling the drain as I type this. He struggled with drops and fumbles in addition to his continued lack of after-the-catch ability. To make matters worse, rookie Joseph Fauria got immediate playing time in his first NFL regular season game, making a couple noteworthy plays against zone coverage and isolated in one-on-one coverage in the red zone. Pettigrew is a free agent at the end of the season and I doubt the Lions will have much interest in resigning the liability. Getting anything of value for Pettigrew in the trade market going forward would be a big victory for a dynasty owner.
Statistics that make no sense
Philip Rivers had four touchdowns with just 14 completions against the Texans, a 29% clip. His TD rate over the past four seasons has been very good compared to the league average, but was still in the 7-9% range. Expect a strong correction in the coming weeks.
As the Eagles raced out to an early lead on Monday Night Football, Robert Griffin III III was forced into catch-up mode for one of the few times in his short career. His 49 pass attempts were by far a career-high. In fact, his high game last year was 39 attempts, crossing the 30-attempt threshold just four times.
Most of the expectations for the Chip Kelly offense in the NFL centered around tempered expectations and the idea that ‘well that worked in college, but will be adapted for the NFL.’ Turns out, at least for one week, it worked EXACTLY like college. The Eagles had 83 offensive snaps and ran the ball 49 times. Commonly they snapped the ball with more than 20 seconds remaining on the play clock. While the 30-second skip ahead button the remote control works perfectly for 31 teams in the NFL when rewatching games on the old DVR, it does not for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Christian Ponder had three interceptions on just ten incompletions against the Lions. Regardless of a quarterback’s ineptitude, that is hard to duplicate. Between this statistic and the fact that Jerome Simpson (career 52% catch rate) caught 7-of-8 targets in Week 1 and Cordarrelle Patterson barely saw the field, there were some unlikely things going on for Minnesota to open the season.
The Titans won this week while completing just 11 passes. That happened just 13 times a season ago with, yes you guessed it, the Titans leading the pack in 2012 with two of those games under their belt. While most of the league is moving towards a pass-heavy offense, teams like the Titans could be going in the opposite direction with their three-headed backfield of Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene, and Jackie Battle.
Andre Johnson has been a high-reception, but surprisingly low-touchdown receiver over his career, especially considering his skill, size, and athleticism. In Week 1, Johnson's 12 receptions, 146 yards, and zero touchdowns got me thinking about what the record is for receivers with games of more than 100 yards without a touchdown. Turns out, Johnson is closing in on the record. Johnson had game no.18 of his career with those parameters, tying Marvin Harrison and Michael Irvin for fifth all-time. The leader is Jimmy Smith with 22 such occurrances. Isaac Bruce, Jerry Rice, and Carolina's Steve Smith are the remaining receivers currently ahead of Johnson.
How dysfunctional was the Jacksonville passing game this past week? According to the great oracle known as profootballfocus.com, there have been only eight other games with a team attempting at least 41 passes, completing less than 47% of them, and not salvaging a single touchdown through the air. They join the esteemed company of offenses led by quarterbacks like Seneca Wallace, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, and Jason Campbell. Congratulations Jaguars, now wait three more games for Justin Blackmon to return.
Finally, Chris Ivory’s day of 10 carries for 15 yards cannot be understated. Lamar Miller’s performance of 10 carries for just 3 yards either. These are not common things. There were just 12 incidents of running backs getting double-digit carries with less than a 1.50 yards-per-carry average in 2012. Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, and Chris Johnson stick out as the best backs of the group, but the 2012 version of Michael Turner, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, and Chris Wells are not names a successful running back wants to be associated with.
