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This week's edition will be a grab-bag of sorts. There are a few games and outcomes from Week 15 that need addressing. The next few days mark the last time to scrub the waiver wire until some time after the new year in most leagues. Some deeper stash players were outlined in this article from a couple of weeks ago as well as overarching sit-start advice for playoff teams here.
Another Cowboys second half meltdown got me thinking about teams that go away from the run game with a lead late in games. I had some assumptions going into the statistics, but they were even more stark than I was expected. Using the great Footballguys.com data dominator tools, I calculated every team's run-pass ratio when leading by two scores (nine or more points) in the second half this season. Through Week 15, Dallas has had 119 offensive plays (pass attempts plus rushes), right about the NFL average of 116 plays. In terms of their play selection, Dallas passes 56% of the time when up by two scores. Only the Falcons, 69%, have a higher pass rate and that is on just a 35-play sample this season. The NFL average is 43% and more than a dozen teams are throwing it around the yard less than 40% of snaps with a substantial lead. Last year the NFL average was 41% in the same circumstances. Here are the five most pass-heavy and run-heavy teams with a two-score lead in the second half of games this season:
Pass-Heavy
- Atlanta, 69%
- Dallas, 56%
- Giants, 52%
- Baltimore, 51%
- Green Bay 50%
Run-Heavy
- Carolina, 30%
- San Francisco, 31%
- Washington, 31%
- Jets, 33%
- Oakland, 35%
Going one step further, here are the highlights for teams up by three scores (17 or more points) this season:
Pass-Heavy
- Arizona, 50%
- Tennessee, 45%
- Atlanta, 44% (nine plays)
- Dallas, 42%
- New Orleans, 41%
Run-Heavy
- Giants, 0% (six plays)
- Minnesota, 0% (three plays)
- Chicago, 16%
- Baltimore, 18%
- San Diego, 19%
Dallas had the second-most plays of the top-five teams, only Arizona logged more snaps with a huge lead in the second half. One of the other troubling aspects of the Cowboys plan of action this past week was the success of DeMarco Murray throughout the game. Murray ripped off his helmet in disgust late in the game and for good reason - he was on pace for a huge game in the first half and could have salted away a victory with a heavy dose of work. In the second half, Murray saw nine carries in the second half and gained at least four yards on seven of them. In the fourth quarter, Murray gained 24 yards on his three carries. Despite that success, Tony Romo threw 13 passes in the fourth quarter, including two interceptions. I recently discovered the 'Win Probability' data over at profootballreference.com and Dallas had a 98% chance of victory from about the middle of the second quarter until three minutes to play in the game.
Another section of the data I like to look at is fourth quarter statistics for quarterbacks. While any established threshold has its limitations, I want to see what signal-callers do late in games. Here are some of the highlight (and lowlight) quarterbacks this season:
Top Performers
- Sam Bradford: 87 attempts, 5 TD, 0 INT, 5.4 YPA
- Matt Flynn: 62 attempts, 4 TD, 0 INT, 8.2 YPA
- Nick Foles: 44 attempts, 5 TD, 0 INT, 9.6 YPA
- Jay Cutler: 82 attempts, 8 TD, 2 INT, 8.0 YPA
Under-Achievers
- Eli Manning: 134 attempts, 5 TD, 11 INT, 6.0 YPA
- Matt Ryan: 184 attempts, 5 TD, 8 INT, 6.5 YPA
- Terrelle Pryor: 61 attempts, 1 TD, 5 INT, 6.5 YPA
- Christian Ponder: 66 attempts, 0 TD, 4 INT, 4.9 YPA
Matt Asiata was a popular name this past weekend. The seldom-used back was thrust to a starting role with Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart out with injuries. Asiata received a whopping 30 carries in the surprising Minnesota runaway victory against Philadelphia. With that workland, Asiata had the strange stat line of 51 yards and three rushing touchdowns. When something like this occurs, I immediately want to check out some historical comparable performances. Here are other running backs with 25 or more carries, multiple touchdowns, at a 2.0 yards per carry or less clip since 1970:
- 2011: LeSean McCoy, 27 rushes, 38 yards, 2 TDs
- 1999: Edgerrin James, 26 rushes, 52 yards, 2 TDs
- 1972: Larry Schreiber, 26 rushes, 52 yards, 3 TDs
And finally, a few players that are on a cold streak entering the last two weeks of regular season. Sometimes players like this can lead to a discount early in the offseason as they leave a bad taste in the mouthes of dynasty owners:
Quarterbacks
Robert Griffin III III: Shut down for the final three weeks of the season after a stretch of three games with two total touchdowns, two interceptions, 489 passing yards, and a paltry 6.11 YPA.
Matt Ryan: After multiple touchdowns in each of the first six games of the season, Ryan has nine touchdowns total over the last eight games to go along with 11 interceptions. His total touchdowns and yardage are on pace to be down significantly from a year ago and the Atlanta quarterback has already matched his career-high with 14 interceptions on the season.
Matthew Stafford: 11 interceptions in the six games after Detroit's bye week and some alarming accuracy issues in the past two weeks. He *should* get back on track with the Giants and Vikings to close the season, but nothing is out of the realm of possibility for the reliably unreliable Lions offense.
Running Backs
Andre Brown: After a hot start returning from injury (119 total yards and a touchdown against Oakland), he has struggled of late. Brown has just 133 rushing yards the past three weeks and Detroit offers another tough test this week.
Frank Gore: Just one touchdown over the last six games and seven receptions over that span.
Alfred Morris: Like Gore, this power back is lacking touchdowns of late with one in the last six games, spanning 103 carries. Morris has four receptions since Week three.
Wide Receivers
Victor Cruz: The sputtering Giants passing game has fueled Cruz to one game of 16 or more PPR points since Week four, the last time Cruz found the end zone. The last four games have also included a reduced target volume for Cruz with seven or less in all four outings.
Michael Floyd: Floyd has cooled off the past two weeks (4-59-0 on 10 targets) and Seattle-San Francisco is a tough stretch on which to end the season.
Stevie Johnson: Five straight games without a touchdown and Johnson has caught less than half of his targets over that span. The last time Johnson eclipsed 75 receiving yards in a game was Week three.
Tight Ends
Antonio Gates: His touchdown rate this year is a far cry from his career average and Gates has found the end zone once in the last 10 games, spanning 45 receptions.
Jordan Cameron: Outside of a strong Week 14, it has been a regrettable stretch since Week eight. Cameron was a fantasy darling over the first two months of the season, but has tailed off considerably since with five games of less than nine PPR points in the last six outings.
