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In nearly all dynasty leagues, the trade deadline has passed by now. The waiver wire has been picked clean of usable players for a spot start. The strategy and team-building aspects from the other 11 months out of the year are out the window. What is left for a dynasty owner to do? Of course, dabbling in the weekly fantasy football games can get the creative juices flowing again like I referred to in last week’s installment. This edition will focus on lineup decisions. While I rarely approach the subject in the early season weeks, the last handful of matchups is for all the marbles. The decisions made about who to start and who to bench carry the weight of missing the playoffs, being ousted in the early rounds, or a crushing defeat at the hands of a bitter rival in the title game. All of which are followed by nine months of questioning yourself with ‘why did I do that?’ Is the intensity dialed up enough yet?
Here are a few bullet points to keep in mind when locking in those lineups in the coming weeks:
Always start your studs
This has been a mantra that has been a common phrase in fantasy football circles for as long as I can remember. The real question here is ‘where to draw the line for a stud?’ By now there is three months of data out for players and we have experienced all the team dynamics along with the highs and lows for all of our owned players. Here is a quick list of those falling into the ‘stud’ category on my board, players I will not be dissuaded from starting regardless of the matchup:
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning – Despite the concerns in cold weather and the past two weeks marking Manning’s lowest outputs of the season, Manning has an upside few can match any game.
Drew Brees – Stable floor and the offense runs through him. Two remaining games against Carolina are not ideal, but lower efficiency could just equate to more volume in those matchups.
Matthew Stafford – The offense lives to pass and their defense is horrible. Three home games in Detroit’s dome highlight the next four weeks.
Cam Newton – He has a weekly ceiling that can propel fantasy teams to titles. Two games against the Saints promise to keep Carolina’s foot on the gas pedal. Home games against Tampa Bay and the Jets complete Newton’s fantasy docket.
Philip Rivers – The Chargers’ defense is one of the worst in the league and shootouts have been the norm for San Diego. In addition to three games at home, away from the winter weather, tilts against the Broncos and Raiders in Weeks 15-16 are comforting for fantasy teams advancing that far.
Wild Card – Aaron Rodgers – Assuming Rodgers recovers nicely in the coming week or two, Green Bay has Atlanta in Week 14 and Dallas in Week 15, both ideal matchups for opposing quarterbacks.
Notable Omissions: Tony Romo, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck.
Running Backs
Jamaal Charles – One of the few bell cow backs in the league, on a run-based team to boot.
Matt Forte – Got dinged up this past week, but just a single game with less than 15 points in PPR scoring on the season.
Knowshon Moreno – As we saw against New England, colder weather equals more running game for Denver. When active, he is a no-brainer.
LeSean McCoy – On a streak of 11 straight games of double-digit PPR performances on an offense that loves to run a ton of plays. The Bears shoddy run defense awaits McCoy owners in Week 16.
Adrian Peterson – Has the most weekly touchdown upside of any running back and Minnesota’s best chance to stay in games lies with Peterson.
Marshawn Lynch – One of the best teams in the league, will be leading much of the time, tough strength of schedule down the stretch matters, but not enough to bench him.
Wild Card – Shane Vereen – The other running backs cannot hang on to the ball. Will Tom Brady really trust the likes of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson with regularity in crunch time? Vereen will be heavily involved in the passing game at a bare minimum and have a high weekly floor.
Notable Omissions: DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush, Andre Brown, Danny Woodhead, Eddie Lacy, LeVeon Bell, Giovani Bernard, Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Alfred Morris.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson – Enough said.
Josh Gordon – One of the few receivers that can rival Calvin Johnson in terms of weekly upside. The Browns have nothing past Gordon and Jordan Cameron to lean on.
Brandon Marshall – Josh McCown more than capable to fuel Marshall’s production and, this just in, Chicago’s defense is giving up points like they have an expiration date.
Antonio Brown – Will be one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL resulting in a very comfortable weekly floor.
Demaryius Thomas – One of the best quarterbacks and Thomas’ WORST game has been five receptions for 52 yards.
A.J. Green – Joe Haden is gone from his schedule, the one Green speed bump out there.
Dez Bryant – Having a rather ho-hum season for his physical prowess, but still on pace for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Current streak of three straight games without a touchdown is bound to turnaround with Oakland, Chicago, Green Bay, and Washington remaining.
Notable Omissions: Andre Johnson (Houston imploding, quarterback concerns), DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker (three of his worst games in the past three weeks), Jordy Nelson (becomes auto-start when/if Rodgers returns), Pierre Garcon (offense is a trainwreck), Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham – A cornerstone to a title team.
Rob Gronkowski – A cornerstone to a title team.
Julius Thomas – 10 games, 10 touchdowns. Will never see a double team.
Notable Omissions: Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Jordan Reed.
The Schedule Matters
For all of the non-automatic starts, an especially strong or weak matchup can swing the pendulum from usually starting them to planting them on the pine. Here are the most notable down-the-depth-chart options with juicy remaining schedules. When stuck with a tough decision, these may be just the matchup that wins matchups:
Quarterbacks
Josh McCown – He is a trendy sleeper any given week with possibly the best quartet of passing game weapons and offensive coordinator in the NFL. His best matchups are in Weeks 13-14 (Vikings, Cowboys) when Jay Cutler is most likely to still be out of the lineup.
Nick Foles – The Lions and Vikings in Weeks 14-15 are ideal for opposing quarterbacks and Foles, unlike Case Keenum, is continuing his strong play.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – He has a high weekly floor with his rushing ability and veteran savvy. A potential shootout with Denver in Week 14 and Jacksonville awaiting the Titans in Week 16 offer two chances for Fitzpatrick to win fantasy playoff matchups.
Running Backs
Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller – Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Miami represent three strong matchups in the remaining four games. Spiller offers elite weekly upside, but needs to finally see a string of health this season. Jackson could be a playoff sleeper if Spiller continues to be in and out of the lineup down the stretch.
Alfred Morris – Week 15 against Atlanta marks his best chance for a big game left on the schedule. Dallas in Week 16 marks another strong opportunity to play Morris with reasonably high expectations.
Bobby Rainey – A tough string of matchups continue in Weeks 13-14, but Week 16 against the Rams is worth the wait as he simmers on the bench of championship game-bound teams.
Wide Receivers
Dwayne Bowe – The Chiefs’ defense looks like a shell of its dominant shell and there could be more high-scoring games coming. After a tough schedule for receivers in the first half of the season, Bowe actually has one of the best remaining schedules with Washington, Oakland, and Indianapolis left.
Rod Streater – He has exceled with a true pocket passer under center of late and the Cowboys, Jets, and Chargers mark strong plays going forward.
Rueben Randle – Washington, San Diego, and Detroit are three of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL against receivers. Hakeem Nicks cannot stay healthy and the Giants are building on a hot streak.
Nate Burleson – He showed no rust in his first game back in Week 12, will rarely see a double-team, and the Packers and Eagles are strong matchups in Weeks 13-14.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker – The best remaining schedule among tight ends with strong matchups against the Broncos, Cardinals, and Jaguars in Weeks 14-16. A consistent target load is also likely as no receiver outside of Kendall Wright is much of a consistent weekly option in the passing game.
Ladarius Green – Deep league special as the Chargers rarely stop opposing offenses and Green has more big-play upside than most tight ends outside the top few options. The Giants, Broncos, and Raiders in Weeks 14-16 is one of the most advantageous stretches for any team’s tight ends.
Big Game potential
This time of year, when fantasy seasons are decided by one-and-done matchups, huge performances are king. Players with multiple touchdown and big-play upside can be the difference between moving on or calling it a season. As a tiebreaker, ask yourself ‘can this player take over a game?’ and ‘could this game turn into a shootout?’
Weather Matters
As we saw with the frigid weather in New England and the windy conditions around the Northeast in Week 12, the wind and extreme cold can deflate offensive game plans and fantasy numbers. While the weather is rarely extreme enough to bench a typical top-15 receiver for a run-of-the-mill WR4, this is truly a case-by-case situation to combine with the strength of the matchup and player’s individual upside.
Keep it in perspective
One point that was made on my weekly dynasty podcast, Under the Helmet, this past week was the stress and pressure many owners put on themselves in-season. Many dynasty owners actually enjoy the off-season and team-building aspects of the format more than in-season roster management. Just like the NFL, any head-to-head fantasy matchup can result in a variety of outcomes. Some you win, some you lose. Even a dominant number one seed entering the playoffs probably has a 30-40% chance, at best, of emerging with the title. Break that down to individual matchups and there is plenty of room to finish with a first-round exit. While we slave over all of the above points this time of year in an attempt to squeeze every last ounce of production from our teams, there is a paralysis by over-analysis aspect at play. Savor the victories, keep the losses in perspective, and most importantly, enjoy the ride!
