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With the trade deadline looming at the end of this week for many dynasty leagues, these last few days mark the time to scour the rest of the rosters for players of note. That can be a short-term band aid for an otherwise stout title contenders or stashing a player with more potential in 2014 and beyond without risking them going off in the final six weeks of the regular season. In the shallowest of dynasty leagues, some of these players may be available on the waiver wire, but a vast majority are recommended target players via, relatively-speaking, inexpensive trades. Later in the season, deeper targets from the waiver wire will be discussed.
Quarterback
It has been a wild ride for Keenum as the starting quarterback in Houston. He sits as QB3 in points-per-game on the season with top-six finishes each of the last two weeks. Keenum has yet to throw an interception, adds some rushing production along the way, and has the boldness to throw downfield to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans schedule down the stretch is an enviable one for fantasy production with no top-10 pass defenses on the docket until a meaningless fantasy matchup in Week 17. For dynasty teams dealing with an Aaron Rodgers or Jay Cutler injury, or a slumping Matt Ryan or Colin Kaepernick, Keenum may be the juice needed for the playoff push. While the Houston brass has not committed to Keenum as the starter for the rest of the season or long-term at this point, Keenum has played well enough to gain a longer leash than most quarterbacks with three games under his belt. The trade market for Keenum seems to range from second round to third round rookie pick value, centering in the mid QB2 to low QB2 value point. That is a fair price with room for upside if Keenum continues his strong play. With DeAndre Hopkins locked in opposite of Andre Johnson and DeVier Posey an underrated athlete with situational snaps, the Texans have more passing weapons than in recent memory as the run game erodes.
This is more of an ‘in case of emergency, break glass’ type of move. A contending team needs to hurting at quarterback to the point that a preseason plan to go with a committee has turned into a downright kitchen fire. While most dynasty formats suppress the need to ever truly knee-jerk react to a weakness at quarterback, there are combinations from the preseason that can put an otherwise strong team in a precarious situation at this juncture. Fitzpatrick, like Keenum, has the advantage of a great stretch of matchups for the rest of the fantasy season. The Titans see the Colts twice, Oakland, Denver, Arizona, and Jacksonville. Justin Hunter is developing into a much-needed deep threat for the Titans and Kendall Wright is coming along nicely in his second season. Like his Buffalo days, Fitzpatrick can sprinkle in some rushing production to boot. Fitzpatrick can be a top-15 to top-20 option for the rest of the season at the cost of a third round rookie pick, if that, or even from the waiver wire.
Running Back
Darren McFadden is reportedly out ‘indefinitely’, which is never a comforting thought for fantasy owners. In the meantime, Jennings has uncontested touches as the lead back in Oakland. Considering how few running backs have that kind of volume on a weekly basis, Jennings is a more than serviceable option for the rest of the season.
Brown, like Jennings, has a golden opportunity for a high workload. It was thought that Brown would be eased back into the Giants offense in his first game of the season, but instead he was the centerpiece. Peyton Hillis becomes an afterthought and Michael Cox moves down the depth chart as well. The biggest risk with Brown is his spotty-at-best injury history. Will he hold up to 20+ touches a week for a month or more? If he does, Brown’s trade market cost of a second round rookie pick, or a little less, will be worth it to some competing teams. The downside of acquiring Brown is that he is like a comet, once again, that burns brightly for a brief period of time to only disappear from fantasy relevance.
Mark Ingram
Ingram was essentially forgotten in fantasy circles until his career day in New Orleans’ blowout win against Dallas. For the first time in a long time Ingram looked explosive and finished with an aggressive edge to his runs. Dallas’ defense looked like it was halfway to the locker room in the second half, especially without Sean Lee, but the fact remains: Mark Ingram looked the part of a productive running back. While Ingram likely just adds another layer to the committee approach New Orleans uses in the backfield this season, the future looks a little brighter for the former first round pick. Darren Sproles is already past 30 years old, Pierre Thomas will be 29 next season, and Ingram will be just 24. While Ingram could become a Jonathan Stewart situation where his early years are mired in a committee (with injuries to boot), Ingram holds more value than he the current dynasty marketplace perception. Ingram has been on a few dynasty waiver wires during the season, but this week’s performance should rectify that at a minimum. Ingram remains a long-term hold as he has more upside than every running back in his range of cost and roster position, while having some short-term value if Sproles or Thomas were to miss time.
Wide Receiver
Quick was a project when drafted early in the second round last year. Receivers from smaller schools commonly take a little longer at the NFL level to know what you have as a dynasty owner. Quick barely saw the field as a rookie (just two games with more than 30% of the offensive snaps), but that has progressed with seven-of-ten games over that 30% threshold this season. That might sounds like modest growth, but considering the Rams added two receivers in the first four rounds in this year’s draft and Chris Givens, the other rookie receiver on the team from 2012, played well out of the gate, snaps are at a premium. If looking for a success story that Quick could parallel, check out Vincent Jackson, another big-bodied small school receiver drafted in the second round. Quick is a poor man’s Vincent Jackson in terms of athleticism, but both were highly productive in college, accounted for more than half their team’s passing touchdowns in their final season, and barely saw the field to open their NFL careers. Jackson progressed to have a 450-yard sophomore season, then 623 yards, before his breakout in year four of nearly 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns in San Diego. Through 24 career games, Quick is on a similar path production-wise. Coming out of college, Quick had some productive names in this comparable list, namely Josh Gordon, Eric Decker, Riley Cooper, and Marques Colston. Quick was in the round 12-13 range of startup drafts six months ago and it was be surprising if he improved upon that when drafts kick off again in January and February. All things considered, Quick is a quality addition for a late second round rookie pick, if it even takes that much, to stash headed into the offseason.
I commonly refer to Hunter as a snowflake player because his NFL prospect palette is so unique. Finding comparable former players is far more challenging than any drafted receiver in recent memory. Hunter is tall, lanky, and quite the athlete. He was also very sporadic with his college production. When Hunter was drafted in the second round this year, the writing was on the wall that Kenny Britt was on the proverbial hot seat in Tennessee and, outside of a strong season, Britt would be out the door without a new contract and Hunter would be given the opportunity to be the primary outside receiver. Britt played on more than half of the offensive snaps in the first three weeks, but over the past month, he has been a glorified cheerleader on the sidelines, playing just 21% of the snaps over the past month. In that span, Hunter’s playing time has expanded with a season-high 74% of the snaps in Week 10. Through September, the old adage ‘all he does is catch touchdowns’ was correct with Hunter as he had two receptions on the seasons, both for long scores. Hunter has seven receptions on the season, four coming in the past two games, with an impressive 17.4 yards-per-catch average. He is doing work down the field just as he did in college. Hunter was a late first round rookie pick in most leagues and his cost today would be similar. Outside of the top receiver or two in the projected 2014 class, Hunter fits right in value-wise. The advantage with Hunter is that he has already flashed at the NFL level and the situation with Britt has already clarified itself.
Da'Rick Rogers
Rogers is a very polarizing player. He was an early-round talent with an undrafted off-the-field profile. As a result, Rogers went undrafted and is now on his second NFL team in seven months. In terms of comparable receivers, Rogers is not too much different from Alshon Jeffery, Nick Toon, Eric Decker, and Michael Crabtree of recent draft classes. Of course his odds of hitting plummet as an undrafted player, but the crucial period in his NFL career is now. Most undrafted players do not make an active roster, so Rogers has already cleared that important first hurdle. Reggie Wayne is out for the rest of the season and Darrius Heyward-Bey, LaVon Brazill, and Griff Whalen are hardly impressing with their playing time this season. Rogers will likely see the field for the Colts between now and the end of the season. He was a second-to-third round rookie pick back in May and that price range still applies to Rogers. The range for Rogers’ offseason value is huge, depending on what he does over the next month and a half.
Tight End
The latest news for Pitta has him on track to return late in the season from his hip surgery that has kept him out of the lineup thus far. The Ravens passing game sorely needs a possession target not named Dallas Clark or Ed Dickson, who are soaking up snaps despite low efficiency. Pitta was a no-brainer TE1 a season ago and would quickly become, at worst, the second target for Joe Flacco. One of the best times to acquire a formerly productive player is when they are injured. That window is closing for Pitta fans as the market view on him will trend upward quickly as he progresses to practice and ultimately playing in games.
Green continues to flash, in very small doses, in the shadow of Antonio Gates. Other than Keenan Allen, there is little to be excited about in the San Diego wide receiver group. Green is a glorified receiver with his lanky frame (for a tight end) and knack for lining up split out from the line. Green is the second-highest rated tight end in terms of pass rating by profootballfocus among players with less than 300 snaps to only Rob Gronkowski this season. Playing time still eludes Green, as he has eclipsed 30% of the offensive snaps in just one game thus far. Antonio Gates will be 34 years old next season, an age where only Shannon Sharpe and Tony Gonzalez have put up seasons of even 500 yards at the position in NFL history. Yes, Gates could be an exception to the general career arc of productive tight ends, but more often than not, they erode like the masses. Green has been groomed slowly over the first season and a half of his career, but the upside of his athletic profile in a tight end-friendly offense, with a fully functional quarterback is quite appealing. Green was drafted outside the first 18 rounds in startups this past offseason. Offer a third round rookie pick or similar value to get Green as an upside TE3 heading into the offseason.
