In this second installment of evaluating the 2013 rookie crop, the late first round and early second round rookie draft picks are evaluated halfway through their inaugural seasons. In part one, the top picks were discussed a few weeks back. The players are ordered by average draft position from a number of reputable dynasty leagues hosted by myfantasyleague.com with drafts held shortly after the NFL draft.
Tyler Eifert
Eifert was considered a very ‘safe’ choice in the first round of rookie drafts. The statistics support that view, as tight ends drafted in the first round in the NFL draft produce value above the baseline over 90% of the time (using players from the 1999-2010 draft classes). The ultimate dynasty value of said players even churning out some TE1 seasons can be debated, but a vast majority of the time, dynasty owners are getting a solid asset. Eifert was considered NFL-ready, but the situation in Cincinnati with former first round pick Jermaine Gresham in the fold at tight end was a short-term roadblock. Eifert and Gresham have combined for a TE1 season thus far, but separately both are bye week type plays. Eifert has flashed at times through half a season and looks on track to be a fantasy starter within the next couple of seasons. Eifert was typically between TE8 and TE10 in startups after the NFL draft, a profitable investment point for owners willing to forgo the 2013 production from older veterans.
Marcus Lattimore
Not much has changed for Lattimore since being a late first round rookie pick this offseason. Frank Gore has enjoyed another productive run as the starter in San Francisco, Kendal Hunter looks to be efficient once again as the backup, and LaMichael James remains a former second round pick without much love in terms of playing time. All reports are that Lattimore is on track from a recovery standpoint and patience is the name of the game. Gore will be 31 years old next season, an age where few running backs produce any meaningful value above baseline. If healthy, Lattimore will likely get a chance to be a starting running back in the future. Until then dynasty owners will pin their hopes on a full recovery to the Lattimore on display all the way back in his freshman season at South Carolina.
Johnathan Franklin
Franklin was a trendy pick in the late first and early second round of rookie drafts for owners hedging against Eddie Lacy back in May. Franklin had a breakout game after Lacy and Starks were out of the mix back in Week three, only to see just six carries in the five games since as Eddie Lacy has grabbed a hold of the starting job. Franklin is a middling athlete, which is another hurdle to surfacing in a prominent depth chart position in the future, in Green Bay or not. The immediate stock price for Franklin is lagging from his purchase price as few, outside of possibly a Lacy owner, would pay a late first for Franklin at this stage.
Keenan Allen
Allen was a polarizing player this past offseason. Once in the discussion to be the first wide receiver off the board in the NFL draft, Allen fell to the third round, an area of the draft where less than 1-of-4 receivers produce value above the baseline in a season. Allen’s share of his team passing production in college is impressive, something that indicates the ability to produce even when he was the clear go-to receiver in the offense. His college metrics dwarf that of Rueben Randle, a similarly built prospect taken in a similar range of the NFL draft. Allen has emerged as the lead receiver in San Diego without much resistance. The other receivers were not all that imposing with Vincent Brown, Malcom Floyd, and Eddie Royal in the fold at the beginning of the season. Philip Rivers’ resurgence has helped quite a bit as the Mike McCoy offense has succeeded more than anyone expected in the offseason. Considering Allen’s quintessential size and already defined role in the offense, it is tough to keep him out of the top-24 dynasty receivers. Projecting ahead to early startup drafts in the offseason, Allen slots in the fourth or fifth round range, a huge jump from outside the top-100 this past May.
Justin Hunter
Hunter has flashed in his limited playing time with two touchdowns on just five receptions through Week nine. The Titans continue to have Nate Washington soaking up a ton of snaps. Kenny Britt’s playing time has been on a steep decline over the past month as Hunter had a season-high snap percentage in Week nine, a promising sign. Physically, Hunter is a snowflake. I use that term for prospects that do not fit with a large subset of players at their position based on their dimensions and measurements. Hunter’s combination of height, explosion, and thinness are seldom seen, especially by a receiver chosen in the top-40 of the draft. Hunter profiles as a player with a high ceiling and low floor, which is perfect for this area of a rookie draft’s price point. Hunter is a rookie to watch over the final two months of the season as he gets on the field more. He is also a target player in the offseason as his acquisition cost will likely be the same or less than a year ago in startup drafts.
Zac Stacy
Stacy was looked upon as a candidate for a starting role as a rookie back in May. The Rams backfield was confusing at best with Daryl Richardson the best performer in 2012 of the remaining veterans and Isaiah Pead had disappointed since being a second round NFL draft pick. Stacy has some physical similarities to Doug Martin and Travis Henry from years past as a low-to-the-ground well-built back that can pinball off would-be tacklers. After limited playing time in the first month of the season, Stacy has strung together five straight games of 14 or more touches. The Rams are plain-and-simple not a very good team, even when Sam Bradford was healthy, so goal line opportunities and extended drives will be a scarce resource. That said, Stacy seems to have distanced himself from Richardson and Pead rather quickly for the lead role. The history for fifth round running backs is rather sparse in terms of those keeping a starting job for any length of time. From 1999 through 2011, just one back in Stacy’s range of the draft, Michael Turner, emerged into a VBD-producing back in their career. While Stacy has one of the better athletic palettes of running backs in that group, the odds are clearly stacked against holding the job for an extended amount of time. Stacy will likely be overvalued in the offseason, looked upon as a top-15 dynasty back with the assumption that his run of exclusive touches will continue. Stacy is the ideal sell-high player for the rest of the season and early part of the offseason for an undervalued asset.
Robert Woods
Woods was considered ‘pro-ready’ coming out of college and his early playing time in Buffalo has supported that assumption. Woods flashed with an 80-yard, one touchdown performance in Week four, but his limited athleticism is a point of concern. While oozing physical potential is not the end-all, be-all for wide receivers, Woods is one of the least imposing receivers drafted in the second round since 1999. Projecting ahead, Woods will rely on being a possession target in a high-level passing offense to reach his ceiling, a low-percentage play that he is ever worth much more than the early second round rookie pick he cost last offseason. Woods may have a WR3-level season or two, but it is tough to be any more optimism about him going forward.
