This past week felt like a tornado of injuries across the NFL landscape. With swift power, fantasy owners were shaken from their seats as players put up partial games in their lineup. Now, owners are faced with the aftermath – deciphering what to do now.
Doug Martin
Martn, not known for his downfield receiving prowess, ran a wheel route against Atlanta. In tight coverage, Martin tried to snare the pass above his head, and then was hit at an awkward angle as his shoulder impacted the Georgia Dome turf. While reports on his recovery timetable vary, a conservative estimate would be that he will be out most of the remainder of the year, if not all of it. The name to know here is Mike James, sixth round pick in this past year’s draft. James is soundly built and showed well in Martin’s absence after the injury. James is a tough inside runner and has capable hands. Outside of a difference in lateral agility, James will be a solid Martin replacement going forward. Martin was only a weekly RB2 play himself with the lackluster start and James can at least match that.
Considering the landscape at running back, he marks one of the first real shots for a weekly running back starter from many dynasty waiver wires this season. Mike Glennon has been serviceable under center and Tampa Bay’s offense, albeit against a struggling Atlanta defense, looked decent on Sunday. James will be worth his cost from the waiver wire as he will have an uncontested shot as a starter without much resistance from veteran Brian Leonard. If a contender is in a pinch for a weekly RB2, giving up a future second round pick for James is a worthwhile investment.
New York Giants Backfield
Brandon Jacobs was a late scratch for Monday Night’s snoozefest against Minnesota, leaving Peyton Hillis and Michael Cox as the running backs on National television. Hillis showed his straight ahead style on the ground, but his real fantasy value came from his goal line opportunities and his receiving work. Michael Cox was the relative unknown before this week. Despite an ugly-looking stat line, Cox looked good on the ground. His positive showing with burst and some lateral agility at the point-of-attack was overshadowed by getting stacked up deep in the backfield a few times, tempering his box score numbers. Cox’s athletic profile as a prospect is similar to that of successful power backs like Marion Barber and Larry Johnson in the past decade. While the reinforcements (Andre Brown and David Wilson) both project to be back later this season, Cox is the name to stash on the back-end of dynasty rosters. It takes at least 22-25 roster spots to find a place for Cox, but he is well worth holding through the offseason to see how the Giants backfield develops.
Jay Cutler
Cutler is out at least a month with a torn groin muscle. The good news for Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett is that Josh McCown was adequate in his relief effort. Of course, the qualifier is that it was against Washington’s questionable-at-best defense. It is worth noting that Jay Cutler did struggle early on in that game, completing just 3-of-8 passes with an interception before leaving due to injury. While some may be discounting the Chicago weapons in the short-term, I would advocate the opposite. The Bears defense is now without Lance Briggs and possibly Charles Tillman for a while, so expect more shootouts like this past week. If the Cutler injury softens the seller’s market on Alshon Jeffery, it is time to put out some offers. Anything cheaper than WR15 value for Jeffery is a solid buy in the dynasty marketplace. A few recent deals I have seen include straight up for Larry Fitzgerald and another deal for Hakeem Nicks.
Jermichael Finley
It was a scary injury that took Finley off the field Sunday and into the ICU with a spinal injury. First off, well wishes to him on a recovery that may or may not involve football for the rest of the season. In his place, Andrew Quarless is the veteran incumbent to get most of the tight end snaps. Quarless has been largely forgettable in his limited time this season, despite a good athletic profile, and has a capped ceiling in terms of dynasty value. Brandon Bostick in the interesting name to know with Finley missing time. Ryan Taylor and Jake Stoneburner may also see weekly snaps. Bostick has the speed and explosion to be a receiving threat down the field, much like Jermichael Finley in his prime production window a few years ago. Bostick’s basketball background also points to a tight end that can play the ball well in the air. Bostick is a must-add in tight end premium leagues and a worthy TE3/4 in deep dynasty leagues.
Rob Gronkowski is back
The long-awaited 2013 unveiling of ‘The Gronk’ finally occurred on Sunday. Tom Brady targeted Gronkowski on 36% of his passes against the Jets and the duo just missed a couple touchdowns on the day. With Jimmy Graham currently on the mend, Gronkowski is the top tight end at the moment without conversation in weekly lineups. In terms of ancillary effect, the target gravy train for Julian Edelman, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Aaron Dobson is over. While they may have random games of double-digit targets going forward, it will be nothing like the consistent level of involvement of the first six weeks. Thompkins struggles to get separation on his routes and Aaron Dobson gets wide open before dropping passes at one of the highest clips in the NFL. For owners that are not committed to holding into and through the offseason, now is the best time to cash out on the pair of rookies. Either could be the smaller piece of a deal to acquire a high-impact veteran for the stretch run.
Reggie Wayne
Before this season, Wayne, Roddy White, and Larry Fitzgerald were considered the gold standard at the receiver position in terms of durability week-to-week. This season, all of them have missed time including Wayne unfortunately tearing his ACL this past weekend. If the history of heavily discounting injured players is any indication (Adam Harstad did a great job outlining it in this article), Wayne will be a borderline afterthought on the dynasty trade market over the next couple of weeks as owners lick their wounds. I would project Wayne as a good WR3 in PPR next season that can be had for potentially as little as a third-round rookie pick. In Wayne’s absence, Darrius Heyward-Bey is a worthwhile waiver wire addition if he is floating out there in shallow leagues. T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener now have a much better shot at week-to-week consistency with a likely uptick in targets.
Sam Bradford
Bradford also tore his ACL in Week seven. He was relying on a heavy volume for his high QB2 status prior to injury, but he leaves the Rams offense in a heap of trouble. Jared Cook was already firmly on fantasy benches since his Week one outburst, Chris Givens owners are still waiting for him to get deep for a long touchdown, and Tavon Austin owners are wondering what happened altogether. Bradford at least gave the St.Louis offense a fighting chance.
Now, Kellen Clemens takes over. First off, outside of desperate owners in two-quarterback leagues, no one should be interested in Clemens from a fantasy perspective. His highest yards-per-attempt in a season with more than 75 pass attempts is just 6.1 and his career touchdown-to-interception ratio is a bleak 7-to-13 mark. Chris Givens and Jared Cook’s deep targets will be a distant memory. The lone glimmer of optimism might be that Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, and Lance Kendricks are used as possession targets like they were with Bradford. It is tough to find a silver-lining on the Rams offense in light of this news.
In terms of Bradford, the additional ‘weapons’ this season did not translate to better efficiency (6.4 YPA in addition to a lower QBR than 2012). Of Bradford’s 14 touchdowns this season, three of them came in garbage time at the end of decided games. While Bradford is still in the QB2 mix long-term, he falls behind names like Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, Terrelle Pryor, and Geno Smith in terms of the rankings.
C.J. Spiller
Spiller is still dealing with a balky ankle that has limited him for a month now. Like Roddy White, continuing to play through an injury has been a major hindrance since. In the past three games, Spiller has totaled just 29 touches while being on and off the field on game day. Spiller has hardly lived up to the first-round startup value thrust upon him in the offseason after a Jamaal Charles-like breakout campaign in 2012. The good news is that four of Spiller’s five best rushing matchups on the season are still in front of him, including a juicy tilt with the Jaguars in the fantasy playoffs. All is not lost for Spiller owners, but it may not be until after Buffalo’s bye week (Week 12) that he finally gets back to his usual explosive self. After leading all running backs in profootballfocus’ Elusive Rating in 2012, Spiller is no.40 this year, behind names like Montee Ball and Rashard Mendenhall.
Houston Texans Backfield
Arian Foster is dealing with a hamstring injury and Ben Tate broke four ribs. Both say they will be fine following the team’s Week eight bye, but Cierre Wood was shaping up to be a trendy pickup this week. Unfortunately Wood was released by Houston for violating team rules. Wood turned from hot name-to-know to just another free agent looking for a roster spot. This much is sure, the no.3 running back job in Houston was one of the better spots for a young back in dynasty circles. Foster is turning 28 at the beginning of next season and Ben Tate is potentially gone in free agency this offseason. Ray Graham would be the ‘next man up’ to monitor for the Texans if he is called up from the practice squad. It would take at least 25 roster spots to potentially have room for Graham, outside of teams in the deepest of rebuilding situations.
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers
Miles Austin has been dealing with yet-another hamstring injury this season. While he played the past two weeks, he has been largely ignored in the Dallas passing game and Terrance Williams has a strangle-hold on the starter spot opposite of Dez Bryant. To make matters worse for Austin, Cole Beasley has been gaining market share in the third down work from the slot. Williams is becoming a strong buy that may take more than a 2014 first round rookie pick to acquire and Beasley should be owned in most 25-man roster leagues if he is not already. Austin has been in decline since his breakout in 2009, reaching rock bottom this season with just 15 receptions (8.3 yards-per-catch) in five games. In my latest dynasty rankings update, Austin fell down past WR55 as an older option that now has a slim-to-none shot of reviving any significant production going forward.
Quick Hits
Percy Harvin is already practicing and could be back in the next couple of weeks. While there is quite a bit of optimism that Harvin will be the high-impact player like in Minnesota, a word of tempered expectations. The Seahawks are among the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Harvin may have more NFL value with key conversions and providing advantageous matchups for teammates than weeks of fantasy dominance.
The 49ers offense is finally getting into gear with Vernon Davis back on the field. All reports are positive for Michael Crabtree to return in mid-November, which would be a big boost for Colin Kaepernick.
Strategy Tip
With the fantasy regular season about half over, now is the time for contending teams to explore loading up for the playoff run. Older pieces like Darren Sproles, Frank Gore, Tony Gonzalez, Wes Welker, and Peyton Manning could come at a considerable discount compared to just a few weeks ago if their owner has fallen out of the playoff race with a string of losses. A strong team’s 2014 first round rookie pick can now be strongly projected in the back-half of the round, especially if it is moved for short-term help. Another competitive advantage to dealing for an older boost like the names above is keeping them away from the other title contenders. The bottom-dwellers should be shopping targets to the highest bidder, but that is not always the case. The early bird gets the worm and in this case, the first perspective buyer knocking on the door with a legitimate offer may land the weekly starter.
