It is six weeks into the careers of the 2013 rookie class, but not too early to check-in with all the top names from this past off-season. The NFL draft has become the mecca of the February through May months for NFL fans and especially dynasty owners. Like any big purchase, a dynasty rookie pick can rise, fall, or remain relatively static in their value months after their selection. Part one will include the the first seven players typically drafted in immediately following the NFL draft. There will be two more installments of this series over the next few editions of ‘The New Reality.’ Here is a summary of how things have developed thus far for the top-drafted rookies in dynasty leagues:
*Order based on a combination of myfantasyleague.com ADP and select dynasty leagues used for tracking data. They have PPR scoring and non-IDP rosters. As would be expected, individual league results can vary.
Tavon Austin
A common selection at the 1.01 spot and, at worst, he fell just a spot of two from here in the preseason. He was a trendy riser in the pre-draft process and the Rams nabbed him at no.8 overall. He got off to a hot start with 33 PPR points in the first two weeks, fueled by 19 targets. The Rams were making a point to get their new toy the ball and he also had a couple of short-range touchdowns. Since then it has been a pretty bleak month of football for Austin. About the time owners were feeling good about putting Austin in a starting lineup, he struggled. In the past four games, Austin has 12 receptions for just 71 yards. He played just four offensive snaps in Week six. He currently sits as WR70.
Austin’s athletic profile as a fast, but very small, player may be without a real NFL role on offense. He compares to more undrafted free agents than top draft picks and, at a minimum, was over drafted by a round or two in the NFL draft. For dynasty owners, Austin was a reach in the first half of round one and could be on the fast path to being a fantasy bust. His best chance may be as a special teams contributor, which is not what those drafting Austin just a few months ago want to hear.
Giovani Bernard
Bernard was the top running back drafted in the NFL draft and dynasty owners followed suit in rookie drafts early in the offseason. Benjarvus Green-Ellis was considered a short-term speed bump at most as Bernard’s future value would be determined with his own success or failure. Bernard’s arrival date has a weekly starter is coming earlier than most expected with three games of 19 or more PPR points in his first six NFL games. Green-Ellis has been the leading rusher with 89 carries, but Bernard is averaging ten carries a game in addition to four targets. Bernard has also added eight carries/targets in the red zone. On tape Bernard has great ‘foot frequency’ as Cecil Lammey likes to say and is very tough between the tackles. He currently sits as a mid-RB2 and, considering the running back turmoil this season, is likely in a ton of starting lineups. Dynasty owners would drafted Bernard, even at 1.01, should be thrilled with his early production and career trajectory.
Montee Ball
Ball was the alluring toy in the Christmas stocking around rookie draft time this season. Many saw the juicy situation with Peyton Manning and the Denver passing game combined with the lack of backfield competition as a green light for a 2013 fantasy starter. Redraft owners jumped early and often on Ball as well as Ball going in the top-5 in nearly all rookie dynasty drafts. Ball was the trap at the running back position in my opinion. He was very light on athleticism and high on college production, to clarify, Big Ten production. Of all the running backs drafted in the first three rounds in the NFL draft, Ball was the name in big red lights that was lacking athleticism. Since then Knowshon Moreno has remained healthy and done all the little things right in the Denver offense just like late in 2012. Ball has fumbled, dropped passes, and failed to excel in the all important aspect of pass protection. If Moreno were to get injured, then things may brighten up for Ball in the short-term, but there are serious doubts still about his long-term potential. Ball clocks in at RB74 through six weeks, including a 3.3 yards-per-carry, a full yard less than Moreno or Ronnie Hillman. It is doubtful other owners would give a 2014 first round pick for Ball at this juncture, so holding out for a Moreno injury may be the best bet going forward. Owners should be willing to add a second-round pick to Ball in order to get a first rounder in 2014 and restart with highly-drafted back or receiver as well.
LeVeon Bell
Bell, like Montee Ball, was considered a rookie back walking into a starting role. Bell was drafted at the 1.01 on occasion in addition to his usual 1.03-1.06 range. Bell missed the first three games of the season, but came out of the gate in Week four with 84 total yards and two touchdowns, one that was an ESPN highlight play that got quite the run the following day or two. That was against the Vikings defense that made Brandon Jacobs look five years younger this past week. When the Steelers lined up against the Jets following their bye week, Bell averaged 2.1 yards-per-carry and managed just 56 total yards. The good news is the starting role is all his in Pittsburgh. There is no one else (sorry, Felix Jones). It is worth noting that Bell ranks 44 of 53 qualified running backs in PFF rush rating and his 1.6 yards-after-contact-per-attempt on the ground comes in at RB47. Bell’s athletic profile as a prospect outlined a back that was big, but not explosive. Larry Johnson was his most productive player comparison, but a middle-ground of Rashad Jennings is closer to reality. Of the second-round backs in this year’s class, Bell’s athletic profile ranked below Bernard, Lacy, and Michael. Montee Ball was last of the group. Recent examples of second round picks that fall into Bell’s range of athleticism: Daniel Thomas on the low side and Toby Gerhart on the high side.
Eddie Lacy
Lacy is similar to Bell speed-wise, but he did not go through the typical drills for prospects at the combine or a Pro Day to have a full set of data. Lacy was one of two backs drafted by the Packers in the first four rounds and I loved Chase Stuart’s historical look at similar situations. Lacy has put together back-to-back games as the unquestioned starter (24 touches in each) after a slow start and an injury. James Starks and Johnathan Franklin have also had good games this season, so for the first time in a long time, the backfield looks like a position of strength. Lacy is the RB7 in terms of PFF rush rating, but his 2.2 yards-after-contact-per-attempt is a bit lower than one would like to see from a supposed power back with fresh young legs. The good news for Lacy is it looks like the Packers are more committed to the run than in recent seasons and the injury to Randall Cobb signals to me more two-receiver sets with extra blockers for the ground game. Lacy owners should be happy with a mid-to-late first round selection to this point, but I would temper long-term expectations as Lacy has the look of a potential Stevan Ridley-type that will be minimally used in the passing game and be more reliant on volume and goal line carries than other lead backs.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins was a trendy selection by those eschewing the lack of top-shelf running backs in this year’s rookie class. He was deemed ‘NFL-ready’ by most scouts, produced in the tough SEC, and entered the NFL at just 21 years old, a plus for the long-range dynasty crowd. Andre Johnson was the incumbent lead receiver in Houston, but Hopkins should step into the complimentary role. That was correct as Hopkins started from day one and filled in admirably when Andre Johnson missed time early in the season. What many did not expect was the offensive struggle in Houston. Matt Schaub is having his worst season with the Texans by far and T.J. Yates is far from an heir-apparent as a young backup.
Another aspect to address is the athleticism component. While eye-popping combine numbers and physical measurements are not the end-all, be-all for prospects, especially receivers that are dependent on a number of outside factors to be productive in the NFL, it is part of the equation for prospect evaluation. Looking at Hopkins through that lens, he is very average for a drafted receiver and fourth-lowest of 26 receivers drafted in the back-half of the first round going back to 1999 according to weighted measurements and times. Jeremy Maclin would be considered the biggest fantasy success of those ranking lower than Hopkins up to this point. A point made on twitter recently was that Hopkins is very early in the developmental process for an NFL receiver and as a dynasty asset, but tempered expectations that he will ever be a top-12 type of producer in fantasy terms is a realistic one.
The game tape of him this season has backed up the lacking athleticism. He excels with jump balls and his ability to win the ball in the air, but gaining separation or producing big plays after the catch does not appear to be a meaningful part of his NFL toolbox. So while Jeremy Maclin (the healthy version) or a Kendall Wright type of player (yes, it is still early) is nice from an NFL sense, they are not long-term WR1 fantasy options. They are WR3 types in PPR leagues with some WR2 moments in a good situation. That is the most likely outcome. Hopkins is WR49 through six weeks as the Texans offense does some soul-searching as a struggling preseason Super Bowl contender.
Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson was one of the most polarizing rookies this season, at any position, which divided scouts and dynasty owners. On the positive side, Patterson has quintessential size and speed that has many projections down the line as a top-12 dynasty receiver with weekly upside rivaling any pass-catcher in the league. On the pessimistic side was his lack of college production and narrow band of use at the college level that made him a ‘project’ player that will need work early in his NFL career. Minnesota has brought Patterson along very slowly through six weeks. So much so that Patterson is currently WR110 in PPR despite having at least one catch in each of their five games. Patterson has made his mark on kick returns thus far, leading the NFL in kickoff return average among those with double-digit returns on the year (33.8) and leads the all returners in PFF rating. Patterson also ranks in the top-40 receivers in pass rating on PFF and second among players with less than 150 snaps. When looking at the Minnesota offensive data, the lack of use is jarring. Patterson is a clear fourth on the depth chart with less than half the snaps of Jarius Wright, the third receiver, and just ahead of converted quarterback Joe Webb III. On the plus side, his percentage of offensive snaps is significantly higher from Week three on with a season-high in Week six. Things are trending in the right direction. The fact that Patterson is being targeted on a good rate of his pass routes is a good sign that Minnesota is trying to get him the ball when on the field.
Dynasty owners that drafted Patterson knew that patience was the prescription as he adapted to the NFL game and actually learned how to be a consistent receiver. It is status quo through six weeks. Any owner selling Patterson for less than top-15 or higher value in the next 18 months is selling low based on his long-term upside. The Vikings offense is far from a fertile environment for passing production, so Patterson had time to develop his game. Josh Freeman may only add to the dysfunctional at quarterback. Greg Jennings is on the wrong side of the age curve for receivers and Jerome Simpson has been streaky at best in his up-and-down career. The path to significant playing time is wide open if Patterson builds upon his enviable athletic gifts.
