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The season is officially at the quarter-turn where four weeks of action mean that trends are in full-effect. For dynasty teams, a 3-1 or better start is a huge victory considering the shake-up across the positions. Teams at 1-3 or 0-4 should be taking a deep breath and looking at the path to the disappointing start. Look at points for and points against within the league. Are the losses due to an unlucky stretch of the schedule? A couple misfires selecting a starting lineup? It could also be the result of penciled-in starters missing games with injuries. There are plenty of reasons to not mail in the season despite a slow start. Regardless, October is a vital month to continue building a playoff resume or to rebound, like NFL teams, with three or four victories and hope for the stretch run.
Lapping The Field
Peyton Manning currently lapping the quarterback field with an eye-popping ten points-per-game advantage in six-point for a passing touchdown formats. Manning’s 18 PPG advantage over a QB12 baseline is by far the best of any offensive position, even the huge starts by Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron at the tight end position. Simply put, Manning has been the biggest difference-maker in fantasy football through one month. Arguably the top tier in terms of VBD impact have been Manning, Jimmy Graham, and Jordan Cameron. That leads to the strategy question: What would it take to acquire or trade away Manning? Outside of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees owners, the rest of the league would be interested in the potential impact of Manning during this historic offensive show in Denver. The difficult part in moving Manning is that his owner is likely 2-2 at worst and not interested in moving such a weekly high-floor asset; Manning’s worst game was 307 yards and two touchdowns. The only deal I have seen involving Manning since the season started was Manning, 2014 second round pick, and Marlon Brown for Colin Kaepernick. The lack of deals shows the difficulty to find a middle ground. I would have no problem giving a 2014 first round pick and adding some to it for Manning as a contender. It would take a Peyton Manning owner with little else on the roster or a strong secondary quarterback to move Manning for less than a windfall of future value.
Quarterback Quick Hits
Brian Hoyer has been a shot in the arm for the Browns offense, pleasing Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron owners. Hoyer is QB7 in points per game with more than 25 points in both of his starts. Hoyer will have plenty of volume to continue a string of QB1 performances as Willis McGahee, Chris Ogbonnaya, and Bobby Rainey are not going to sustain anything of substance on the ground.
Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are outside the top-20 through four weeks. Outside of Week one, Wilson has attempted less than 25 passes in each game. That is a tough situation to overcome for top-flight fantasy production. Seattle has a dominant defense and would love to run the ball more than any other team in the league. For Kaepernick, the passing volume is better than Wilson, but where are the weapons and offensive designs from the games of late 2012? Vernon Davis was back in the lineup in Week four, which got Kaepernick back to serviceable status with two touchdowns through the air. Anquan Boldin is turning back into a pumpkin without the green pastures running through the secondary like Week one and there is little else at receiver without Michael Crabtree. Kyle Williams has way too many targets for his talent level and Jonathan Baldwin still seems a ways away from being a relied-upon outside receiver. To top it off, the San Francisco offense is not featuring Kaepernick and the read-option run concepts. Patience is the name of the game with both young signal-callers, but seeing Wilson and a 2014 first round pick turned into Aaron Rodgers in a recent trade is enticing for teams strong outside of quarterback through September.
Running Back Rebound Needed
Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, and Lamar Miller are all outside the top-30 through four weeks. I am advising bailing on Ridley, Jones-Drew, and Johnson. For Chris Johnson, he is on pace for less than 20 receptions and the big plays are just not there. He has zero touchdowns and Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle are not going away. An owner getting a Darren McFadden or Darren Sproles in a trade, even if adding a second piece would be good exit value. Even a future first round pick would be a solid victory for a team looking to move on.
For Jones-Drew, he has had three outright dud games and like Johnson has just one reception per game. At least Jones-Drew has a shot at six-to-eight touchdowns with exclusive goal line opportunities for the rare Jacksonville drive that gets into scoring range. The Rams and Chargers in the next three weeks offer a glimmer of hope that he can at least have a better game than we have seen to-date this season.
Stevan Ridley is a dire case. LeGarrette Blount has become the clock-killing option late in the games, Brandon Bolden is active in the passing game, and Shane Vereen thoroughly outplayed Ridley in Week one and will be back later in the season. Ridley converted 8-of-20 rushes inside the five-yard-line for touchdowns in 2012, but has just a single attempt that close to the goal line this year. For a back that does not factor into the passing game, Ridley’s sole uses, volume and touchdowns, are waning fast. The Patriots are choosing to throw near the end zone even without Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup yet. I have seen Ridley traded for Christine Michael of late and would jump at that type of offer at this stage.
C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice, and Lamar Miller I am more than willing to observe that transpires over the next month. Spiller appears to be thinking on the field more than following his intincts, something that was common prior to his 2012 breakout season. Lamar Miller continues to get more touches than Daniel Thomas. While Miller strikes me as a Chris Johnson-type back that will ultimately live-or-die weekly by the big play and his straight-line speed, he will be a sustaining asset at least until the offseason. For Ray Rice, he has underwhelmed with just 3.0 yards-per-carry, but Bernard Pierce has managed just 2.7 in the same backfield. Rice is averaging nearly four receptions a game, which will keep his floor high as his rushing production comes around.
Another Week, Another Chapter in the David Wilson Saga
I have watched the Giants offense closely this season. Honestly, it has that ‘car accident on the side of the highway’ type appeal. It is tough to watch, but tough to look away. Eli Manning looks uncomfortable at best, the big plays are few and far between, and the running back rotation is plain baffling. Wilson has played about half the running back snaps on the season despite logging 12 missed tackles on just 40 touches, one of the highest rates in the NFL among running backs according to profootballfocus.com. The talk of DaRel Scott being the superior pass blocker is not backed up by the statistics either. Wilson has allowed just one pressure on his pass blocking snaps and is pacing Scott in that department. With the ball in his hands Wilson is still making plays as the offense is crumbling around him. I am strongly advising to continue trying to buy Wilson. I have seen Wilson acquired for a single 2014 first round pick, a combination of Robert Woods, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Vance McDonald, and Darren McFadden straight up. Keep knocking on the door with a combination of non-essential pieces to acquire the talented Giants running back.
Wide Receiver Youth Movement
It was another week of a low snap count for Cordarrelle Patterson. The good news is he at least is moving in the right direction with 33 snaps between Week three and four compared to just 11 in the opening two games. Patterson has flashed with big returns, a long reception, and a broken tackle or two. The ability is there, but he is being incorporated into the Minnesota offense slowly. He has nine targets on just 21 pass routes, so there is a clear intention to get him the ball when out there on offense. With his tempered start, he remains a strong buy for a future first round pick or even a little more. The quarterback situation has to be better in the coming seasons and I doubt Jerome Simpson holds Patterson off the field for long.
Markus Wheaton played 46% of the Pittsburgh offensive snaps last week, which was by far a season-high for the rookie. He is still clearly no.4 on the depth chart, so like Patterson, if an owner missed out on him in the early second round of rookie drafts months ago, a window to buy still exists.
I was not a big fan of Keenan Allen coming out of college, but admitted that he would see the field early and often with the state of affairs in San Diego’s wide receiver depth chart. The injury to Malcom Floyd accelerated the timetable for Allen and the rookie has seen 83% and 95% of the snaps the past two weeks. He has caught eight-of-nine targets and Philip Rivers is on fire in the Mike McCoy offense. I would be looking to sell Allen for a young receiver I liked more if the production continues. Allen was in the late-first or early-second round rookie mix, so getting a Markus Wheaton or Justin Hunter would be an easy transition in the coming weeks if an owner missed out in the offseason.
For as much as I liked Brice Butler as a final roster spot-type flyer with his good athleticism, it is not happening for him thus far. Butler is clearly behind Denarius Moore and Rod Streater on the Oakland depth chart and running five yard hitch routes most of the times I look up at the Raiders offense in action. With an upgrade at quarterback and Moore or Streater out of the mix in 2014 maybe Butler becomes a factor, but he still looks like a deep long-shot from a situational perspective.
All he does is catch touchdowns
As the famous line goes, all Justin Hunter does is catch touchdowns, literally. The Titans rookie has 32 snaps on the season, three targets, two receptions, and two touchdowns. Neither were all that impressive considering Hunter’s athleticism and skill for the acrobatic catch, but one was a game-winner and another iced a game. His snap count is increasing with Kenny Britt in the proverbial doghouse and why wouldn’t Tennessee want to give Hunter, their second round pick, a long look down the stretch as the potential replacement to Britt’s down-the-field ability next season? I called Hunter a snowflake on twitter recently because it is so difficult to find a comparable receiver prospect in recent history. Hunter is rangy, explosive, and lean. A.J. Green is faster in and out of his breaks than Hunter, but Hunter has a vertical leap greater than all but a handful of receivers in the past decade. Hunter is one of the more interesting prospects to track as he develops at the NFL level.
Rudolph the Underfed Reindeer
There were rankings out there that had Kyle Rudolph in the TE3-4 mix this offseason, behind only Graham and Gronkowski. With just 102 yards and one score through four games, the support has waned considerably. Rudolph is on pace for just 80 targets and the offense in Minnesota looks like it can barely support a top-50 receiver let alone another fantasy-viable weapon in the passing game. Some cold water on the Rudolph hype six months ago would have been that he is far less athletic than the surrounding names in dynasty rankings and is highly dependent on getting enough goal line targets to be a weekly play. In fact, Rudolph has the lowest athleticism score of any tight end currently in the top-15 of my tight end rankings. It is not particularly close either; Tyler Eifert and Julius Thomas, the next two lowest tight ends in that metric on my list, run circles around Rudolph. Now, athleticism is not the end-all, be-all for fantasy production or dynasty rankings, but it is part of the equation. The light at the end of the tunnel is a likely new quarterback in the coming season or two and an aging Adrian Peterson that could relent a few goal line opportunities for a tight end down the line.
Comments, questions, or ideas for future New Reality installments to Chad Parsons via email at Parsons@Footballguys.com, on twitter @ChadParsonsNFL. Chad's Under the Helmet weekly dynasty podcast can be found on iTunes.