Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
The quarterback position has been front and center in my recent round of fantasy analysis. J.J. Zachariason has the late-round quarterback movement and the idea of streaming in the mainstream and I have been looking into its viability in dynasty formats as well. While the longevity of the position is desirable, the week-to-week predictablility (and ability to more accurately project positive matchup outcomes) makes having a committee or waiver wire options in your lineup a real possibility.
The typical baseline for quarterback production in a given week (six points for all touchdowns) is around 21 fantasy points. If your starter is below that, he is not helping your cause. In fact, even a score of 25 or 30 points is not as helpful as one would think over the course of a season based on Steve Gallo's work on the subject last year. The CV column represents Coefficient of Variation. The lower the number, the more predictable the outcome from week to week. Combining a high-scoring and predictable quarterback presents a valuable fantasy starter. One without the other gives an owner Andy Dalton (extreme high and low points) or Joe Flacco (predictably mediocre).
Here are the last two years of quarterback data, listing the top-35 for each season:
*Using only the 16 fantasy weeks, so Week 17 is excluded*
*Ranked by PPG, PS ADP RK = Myfantasyleague.com ranking during month of August*
Rank | Year | Player | Team | PS ADP RK | QB1% | CV | PPG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2013 | Peyton Manning | DEN | 3 | 80% | 0.36 | 32.6 |
2 | 2013 | Nick Foles | PHI | 34 | 80% | 0.48 | 28.6 |
3 | 2013 | Josh McCown | CHI | 35 | 80% | 0.40 | 27.1 |
4 | 2013 | Drew Brees | NOS | 2 | 67% | 0.40 | 26.1 |
5 | 2013 | Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 1 | 57% | 0.36 | 25.8 |
6 | 2013 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 15 | 40% | 0.51 | 22 |
7 | 2013 | Philip Rivers | SDC | 23 | 47% | 0.37 | 21.8 |
8 | 2013 | Tony Romo | DAL | 12 | 47% | 0.43 | 21.6 |
9 | 2013 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 8 | 67% | 0.38 | 21.5 |
10 | 2013 | Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 40% | 0.45 | 21.5 |
11 | 2013 | Andrew Luck | IND | 9 | 40% | 0.41 | 21.4 |
12 | 2013 | Sam Bradford | STL | 20 | 57% | 0.35 | 21 |
13 | 2013 | Jay Cutler | CHI | 17 | 67% | 0.23 | 20.9 |
14 | 2013 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 11 | 47% | 0.35 | 20.6 |
15 | 2013 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 16 | 40% | 0.41 | 20.5 |
16 | 2013 | Alex Smith | KCC | 24 | 53% | 0.50 | 20.1 |
17 | 2013 | Tom Brady | NEP | 4 | 40% | 0.47 | 19.5 |
18 | 2013 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 35 | 40% | 0.50 | 19.1 |
19 | 2013 | Robert Griffin III III | WAS | 10 | 46% | 0.48 | 18.8 |
20 | 2013 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 6 | 40% | 0.33 | 18.7 |
21 | 2013 | Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 7 | 33% | 0.51 | 18.6 |
22 | 2013 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 25 | 20% | 0.35 | 18.4 |
23 | 2013 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 21 | 27% | 0.44 | 16 |
24 | 2013 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 18 | 27% | 0.36 | 15.9 |
25 | 2013 | E.J. Manuel | BUF | 26 | 30% | 0.49 | 15.5 |
26 | 2013 | Case Keenum | HOU | 35 | 25% | 0.64 | 15.2 |
27 | 2013 | Mike Glennon | TBB | 35 | 33% | 0.46 | 14.9 |
28 | 2013 | Matt Cassel | MIN | 35 | 38% | 0.68 | 14.8 |
29 | 2013 | Jason Campbell | CLE | 35 | 33% | 0.93 | 13.9 |
30 | 2013 | Christian Ponder | MIN | 29 | 11% | 0.48 | 13.5 |
31 | 2013 | Matt Schaub | HOU | 19 | 33% | 0.71 | 13.4 |
32 | 2013 | Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 31 | 20% | 0.58 | 13.4 |
33 | 2013 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 30 | 33% | 0.83 | 13.4 |
34 | 2013 | Eli Manning | NYG | 13 | 7% | 0.64 | 13.1 |
35 | 2013 | Chad Henne | JAC | 35 | 0% | 0.49 | 12.2 |
1 | 2012 | Drew Brees | NOS | 3 | 73% | 0.35 | 26.3 |
2 | 2012 | Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 1 | 53% | 0.44 | 25.8 |
3 | 2012 | Tom Brady | NEP | 2 | 73% | 0.31 | 25.7 |
4 | 2012 | Robert Griffin III III | WAS | 12 | 57% | 0.41 | 24.5 |
5 | 2012 | Peyton Manning | DEN | 9 | 73% | 0.27 | 23.8 |
6 | 2012 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 6 | 67% | 0.42 | 23.5 |
7 | 2012 | Cam Newton | CAR | 4 | 53% | 0.44 | 23.3 |
8 | 2012 | Tony Romo | DAL | 10 | 40% | 0.43 | 21.3 |
9 | 2012 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 13 | 42% | 0.38 | 21.1 |
10 | 2012 | Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 35 | 43% | 0.28 | 20.8 |
11 | 2012 | Andrew Luck | IND | 16 | 33% | 0.41 | 20.2 |
12 | 2012 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 23 | 47% | 0.54 | 20 |
13 | 2012 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 19 | 47% | 0.45 | 19.7 |
14 | 2012 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 5 | 33% | 0.42 | 19.5 |
15 | 2012 | Josh Freeman | TBB | 18 | 33% | 0.45 | 19.3 |
16 | 2012 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 17 | 40% | 0.49 | 18.6 |
17 | 2012 | Michael Vick | PHI | 8 | 22% | 0.34 | 17.9 |
18 | 2012 | Carson Palmer | OAK | 20 | 33% | 0.47 | 17.9 |
19 | 2012 | Matt Schaub | HOU | 15 | 33% | 0.63 | 17.5 |
20 | 2012 | Sam Bradford | STL | 25 | 27% | 0.44 | 17.2 |
21 | 2012 | Kevin Kolb | ARI | 35 | 33% | 0.39 | 16.9 |
22 | 2012 | Alex Smith | SFO | 22 | 44% | 0.61 | 16.5 |
23 | 2012 | Eli Manning | NYG | 7 | 33% | 0.60 | 16.5 |
24 | 2012 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 21 | 40% | 0.49 | 16.4 |
26 | 2012 | Jake Locker | TEN | 24 | 11% | 0.32 | 16.2 |
25 | 2012 | Philip Rivers | SDC | 11 | 27% | 0.47 | 16.2 |
27 | 2012 | Jay Cutler | CHI | 14 | 36% | 0.53 | 14.6 |
28 | 2012 | Nick Foles | PHI | 35 | 14% | 0.72 | 14 |
29 | 2012 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 35 | 33% | 0.62 | 13.6 |
30 | 2012 | Christian Ponder | MIN | 29 | 27% | 0.62 | 13.5 |
31 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 30 | 27% | 0.58 | 13.4 |
32 | 2012 | Chad Henne | JAC | 35 | 11% | 0.87 | 13.1 |
33 | 2012 | Brandon Weeden | CLE | 32 | 13% | 0.57 | 13 |
34 | 2012 | Matt Hasselbeck | TEN | 35 | 0% | 0.54 | 11.4 |
35 | 2012 | Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 28 | 7% | 0.77 | 10 |
Peyton Manning was off the charts (no kidding) in 2013 with 80% of his games at or above that 21 fantasy points (QB1) baseline. Even his 'down' weeks were 16, 17, and 18 points. Manning was also tied for first in 2012 with 73%. His peaks were not as high in 2012 (three games of 30+ compared to a staggering nine in 2013), accounting for much of the season total difference.
After just one QB1-level game in 2012 (14% of games played), Nick Foles tied the immortal Peyton Manning at the position with 80% in 2013. His lone down week was more impactful than Manning's (5.7 points), but Foles closed the fantasy season with seven straight QB1-level performances. Considering Foles was a waiver wire find, he was one of the plays of the year once grabbing the starting job in Philadelphia. Josh McCown (also at 80% with a slightly lower PPG) joins Foles on the waiver wire gem list.
Matthew Stafford was rock solid in 2013 on a weekly basis (tied for third with 67%), but I did not realize how dreadful he was in 2012. Stafford was outside the top-15 in 2012 with just a 33% start rate, only slightly above Christian Ponder and even with Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, and Kevin Kolb.
Jay Cutler was another quarterback to turn things around in 2013, improving his start rate from 36% in 2012 to 67% last year (top-5 at the position). His weekly high was just 27 points on the season, but while healthy, Cutler was consistently steady in starting lineups.
Some high-profile names down the list include Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan. All were outside the top-13 in start rate at 40%. Think about that, only two out of five weeks starting one of those names yielded a QB1-level result. Staggering. Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Fitzpatrick posted that same 40% consistency.
The two surprise names (not to late-round quarterback trackers) high on the list in 2013 were Sam Bradford and Alex Smith. Both were in the mid-50% range and inside the top-10 at the position. Smith had a rough stretch with four down weeks in a five-week stretch in the first half of the year, but was rock solid for much of the second half. Bradford was a functional QB1 prior to his injury, posting 23 points or more in four of the season's first six weeks. Both players are near-afterthoughts this offseason.
Colin Kaepernick was wildly inconsistent in 2013 with a 33% start rate. Kaepernick posted more games of less than five points (3) than weeks of 30 or more (1) last season.
Just how bad was Eli Manning in 2013? His 7% start rate was equal to Mark Sanchez's 2012. Coincidently, both of them had their QB1 performance in week 1 - with nothing but forgettable games the rest of the season. Even Chad Henne (who posted a 0% start rate in 2013) had a respectable final month of the fantasy season with 17-to-20 points four straight games. In that time, Manning was notching 14 points or less, including a backbreaking -3.8 points in Week 15.
The biggest takeaway is that only 5-10 quarterbacks will even hit the 50% start rate in a given season. Those perceived rock solid weekly plays are a smaller group than most realize. Is Tony Romo an automatic start? What about Russell Wilson? Both have been in the 40-47% range each of the last two seasons.
Next, the idea of the Coefficient of Variation (CV) for a position or player is another important aspect of weekly viability. The first part of this article sets a rigid checkpoint (21 fantasy points) and returns a success rate for each quarterback. This next part considers the range of outcomes for each quarterback based on their own weekly average. The closer to zero, the more predictable the outcome (not always better, see Christian Ponder). The closer to a 1.0 CV, the wider range of weekly production compared to that player's seasonal average. Here are the 6pt per passing touchdown numbers for the top-35 quarterbacks over the past two seasons:
Peyton Manning was the most dependable quarterback out there last season with a low game of 16 fantasy points. Not surprisingly, Andy Dalton had the most variation of the top-12 at 0.51. Like a box of chocolates, an owner never knew what they would get.
Jay Cutler before his injury was actually the most low-variable starting option. His 20.9 PPG was on the QB1/2 border, but five times in the season's opening six weeks Cutler had 21-27 fantasy points. The Bears offense was uber-consistent with Cutler or Josh McCown under center. Did Mark Trestman actually tame the wild Jay Cutler for fantasy owners going forward?
Once again Colin Kaepernick shows up on the naughty list with a CV of 0.51 - tied with Andy Dalton for highest variation among the top-24 quarterbacks.
Overall, what these statistics show is the wide range of options that are viable for fantasy owners on a weekly basis. When Nick Foles or Josh McCown took over under center, owners knew they were starting. The offenses were fantasy-friendly out of the box. Sam Bradford had a low CV last year and his points-per-game were in the low-QB1 range. Ben Roethlisberger also had solid marks in 2013 and finished with four weeks of QB1 numbers over the final six games of the fantasy season. Alex Smith, outside of a bad Week 16, was rock solid in the second half of 2013. Heck, Geno Smith finished with a three-game stretch of 24, 15, and 31 points in the fantasy season and gets Eric Decker, Jace Amaro, and Chris Johnson added to the offense.
The main takeaway is that the quarterback options are plentiful. While drafting one of the first few quarterbacks appears to be locking in a weekly starter, few actually end the year with at least half of their games being QB1 quality. Plus, there is an opportunity cost to spending a high draft pick on quarterback instead of a starting-caliber running back or wide receiver. Once October hits, the quality of opposing defenses will come into shape and strength of schedule becomes a valuable tool week-in and week-out, especially at the quarterback position.
Consider league settings carefully and the typical depth of the waiver wire. In deep roster formats, having three or four top-24 quarterbacks to stream through your starting lineup on a weekly basis may just outpace all but a handful of your opponents. In short roster leagues, churning through free agent options (or finding a Nick Foles or Josh McCown along the way) is a viable, if not preferred, method of doing fantasy business.