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This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
The beautiful thing about the regular slate of Thursday games is the opportunity to see a sampling of the ownership rates for weekend players. In high-leverage tournaments, having a few common players is not a preferred strategy. Here in 50/50 and Double-Up land, it is a strong play. Players owned by at least 20% of the teams indicate they are universally-coveted and strong plays to finish with a positive value-to-cost ratio.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Digging through a nearly 30,000 entries between two Double-Up contests that closed Thursday night, here are the most-owned FanDuel players at each position this week:
*Players on at least 10% of teams included, salary following player name, best matchup indicates top tier in efficiency allowed by opponent*
LAST WEEK'S MOST COMMON LINEUP
- Brian Hoyer, 5.5 points
- DeMarco Murray, 19.7 points
- Justin Forsett, 9.5 points
- Jordy Nelson, 16 points
- Mohamed Sanu, 6.9 points
- Golden Tate, 26.4 points
- Jordan Reed, 7.9 points
- Shayne Graham, 12 points
- Buffalo, 10 points
QUARTERBACKS
- 12% - Carson Palmer, 7400, *Great Matchup*
- 9% - Russell Wilson, 8900, *Great Matchup*
- 9% - Tony Romo, 8200, *Great Matchup*
The ownership rates are better this week than last with Palmer, Wilson, and Romo equal or higher than the top option (Joe Flacco) in Week 7. Peyton Manning was the runaway choice (21%) for the week if including Thursday night players.
RUNNING BACKS
- 32% - Jerick McKinnon, 5800
- 13% - Lamar Miller, 7400
- 12% - Andre Ellington, 7400
- 12% - Ahmad Bradshaw, 7000, *Great Matchup*
- 11% - DeMarco Murray, 9600
- 11% - Shane Vereen, 6800
Jerick McKinnon is the favorite of the week. With a discount pricetag plus a good shot at 15+ touches, his salary allows for flexibility elsewhere. MurS
- 28% - Jordy Nelson, 8800, *Great Matchup*
- 15% - T.Y. Hilton, 7900
- 15% - Michael Floyd, 6500
- 11% - Brandon LaFell, 5300
- 10% - Sammy Watkins, 7300
With another great matchup this week, Jordy Nelson is heavily owned even with a hefty price tag. Michael Floyd is a trendy stack option with Carson Palmer against the fast-paced Eagles known for giving up big plays.
TIGHT ENDS
- 29% - Jordan Reed, 5200, *Great Matchup
- 9% - Rob Gronkowski, 7200
Jordan Reed's price dropped from a week ago and his combination of volume and salary is tough to ignore. Rob Gronkowski is the clear second choice if going for a higher-priced option in Week 8.
KICKERS
- 31% - Matt Prater, 4500
Prater was the runaway preferred option in ownership. Unfortunately, the Lions game is exempt from the 1pm start time for FanDuel games this weekend. No other kicker had much ownership in the cash games I tracked, so low cost is the name of the game like Cairo Santos or Shayne Graham or even Nick Folk.
DEFENSES
- 25% - Cowboys, 4700
- 14% - Jets, 4500
- 10% - Dolphins, 5400
- 9% - Chiefs, 4800
The Dolphins get the benefit of playing the Jaguars this week, but come at a premium price compared to the Jets (against Kyle Orton down his two running backs), or the Cowboys (against Colt McCoy or a rusty Robert Griffin III III).
MOST COMMON LINEUP
- Carson Palmer
- Lamar Miller
- Jerick McKinnon
- Jordy Nelson
- T.Y. Hilton
- Michael Floyd
- Jordan Reed
- Cairo Santos
- Dallas