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Instead of being reactionary to NFL free agency, I like to be proactive tracking upcoming free agents and the connected dynasty player value dominoes. Here are the key pieces for the 2016 offseason at quarterback and running back:
Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford did more to disprove himself in 2015 than cement his long-term value. The Eagles offense has regressed since its red hot start under Chip Kelly and change is coming for 2016. Bradford will see another shot, at least as a No.2, around the NFL, but the optimism is gone outside of a Blaine Gabbert-like transformation once he reemerges with another opportunity. I like the Eagles situation, but not for Mark Sanchez if he is the incumbent starter next season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has produced all along the way and the Jets in 2015 were an ideal fit with quality pass-catchers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. I root for Fitzpatrick to resign in New York as Marshall and Decker would take a downgrade without him. The NFL offenses who would see a dramatic improvement by signing Fitzpatrick for 2016 including San Francisco, Cleveland, St.Louis, Philadelphia.
Brock Osweiler is getting his first shot as a starter as we speak. His under center movement ability aids the run game and he has been markedly better than the eroding Peyton Manning in his short stint to-date. With Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders under contract in 2016, Osweiler has a quality floor as he continues to develop.
Kirk Cousins is in a great position for 2016. Washington has to be aggressive to sign him (the other options are middling as will be their draft position) plus there will be interest around the league.
Running Backs
Matt Forte is on the downside of the age curve and Jeremy Langford (and Ka’Deem Carey) looked functional in his absence. The market should be better than ignored older backs like Chris Johnson in recent years, but I see a knock in value coming for Forte whether he stays or leaves. Jeremy Langford will be a buzz player come January.
Chris Ivory is one of the more talented power runners in the NFL. After an injury-riddled Saints tour of duty, Ivory has only missed a few games in New York and added some receptions to his game. Ivory is talented enough to have a quality share of a backfield, but the competition is likely higher outside of the 2015 Jets backfield peers. I still holdout hope for Zac Stacy to rebound as an ancillary holdover in New York.
Reggie Bush had a lost season in 2015 with 8-28-0 rushing, a career-low 3.5 yards-per-rush and a trip to the injured reserve. Bush is likely to get the older declining veteran treatment in free agency with minimal interest until at least during the preseason. Bush is on most waiver wires, for good reason, and is not worth a roster spot outside of a Chris Johnson-like landing and rise in August or September.
Doug Martin: Touchdowns have been hard to come by this season, but Martin is enjoying a revival on Tampa Bay’s rising offense – plus a career-best 5.1 yards-per-carry. Martin is still hovering near his prime age-wise and should garner committee or better interest in free agency. Martin is not an overt physical talent, more in the Mark Ingram mold where his best attribute is running ‘hot’ and angry when fully healthy. I would be selling Martin before free agency declares his fate. Charles Sims has shown enough in a secondary role to project mid-RB2 production or better if Martin departs.
Lamar Miller has produced through strangely low volume this season, especially with abnormally high efficiency as a receiver for a running back (9.0 YPC, two scores). Jay Ajayi has flashed enough where I do not think Miami would be the highest bidder for Miller in the open market. I am lukewarm for Miller to land in a situation without much competition or a back who takes goal line opportunities away. That said, Miller is in his prime and one of the clear best options of 2016 free agent runners.
Alfred Morris has been a significant disappoint in his contract year. Zero touchdowns to-date, a career-low 3.7 YPC, and a career-low 5.5 YPR taint his 2015. Morris is a ho-hum talent, not a significant pass-catcher, and been in decline straight downward since his impressive rookie season. Morris’ dynasty value is shot and only an investment of a fourth round rookie pick or something in that range would be of interest in medium-to-deep leagues. Outside of fumbling, Matt Jones has looked the lead back part as a 2015 rookie.
LeGarrette Blount has been a reclamation project by New England the past three seasons. He has not caught more than 10 receptions since 2011 and is on the downside of the typical running back age curve. Blount leaving the Patriots would sap his marginal dynasty roster value.
Ronnie Hillman has progressed since a lackluster start of his career. I view C.J. Anderson as the more complete running back if Denver chooses to keep one into 2016 (Anderson is a free agent as well). Hillman has burst, but that has yet to translate to more than an average-level yards-per-rush over his career. I think Hillman heads to the ‘corner store’ far too often and lacks interior acumen. I would be cashing out on Hillman and holding/buying Anderson heading into free agency based on current market conditions.
Lance Dunbar, like a Theo Riddick-type, is a quality pure pass-catcher. They can get an RB2 amount of production in a hurry-up drive or two within a game. Dunbar’s best situation would be sticking in Dallas and without much name value as a splash signing, I handicap decent odds Dunbar in is Dallas in 2016. Dunbar has been a worth IR hold this season to see what happens in full PPR leagues with 25+ roster spots.
James Starks is the quintessential NFL backup who can start periodically and be a handcuff-level dynasty hold. Starks is reaching his expiration date and outside of an unquestioned backup landing in free agency, Starks will be on dynasty waiver wires come next summer.
Chris Johnson had minimal interest based on his free agency expectations in 2015. He ended up smelling like a rose landing in Arizona with Andre Ellington on the shelf and Bruce Arians’ lack of rookie usage. Despite the 2015 bounce-back, Johnson is having his second-worst PPG season of his career. Crossing 30 years old, Johnson will be back to the free agency cold in the offseason.
Antonio Andrews has shown well amidst a lackluster (being kind) Tennessee offense. David Cobb is expected to fill Andrews’ power role going forward, but is just now getting on the field his rookie season. Andrews was a sparely-owned dynasty back before emerging with significant work. I give Cobb the edge over Andrews, making Andrews looking for work elsewhere in 2016 when he likely turns back into a dynasty afterthought.
Charcandrick West has exceled with opportunity in Jamaal Charles’ absence, but the future hall of famer is scheduled to be back in 2016. Spencer Ware is under contract for 2016 and with his strong showing as well, West is not a priority to bring back. West will be back to needing an injury to get much work next season.
Khiry Robinson, like Chris Ivory, has flashed in limited playing time in New Orleans and can emerge with greater opportunity elsewhere. I like Robinson to rise in value early in the offseason as a quality stash.
Robert Turbin has bounced around of late and been middling in relief duty of Darren McFadden in Dallas. Turbin feels like a marginal stash into the offseason even with 25 or so roster spots with less appeal than a few other running backs in the free agent pool.
