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We are nearing most dynasty league trade deadlines. I can write a 10-page argument why there should be no restrictions for trading in dynasty leagues, but it goes beyond the scope of this week's post. Some of the league will be looking and open to adding a stereotypical win now piece. With running backs getting dicier by the week, a commodity like DeAngelo Williams can be gold for a strong contender after an early-season injury or two. On the flip side, there will be a handful of teams out of the race and, rightfully, looking towards 2016. Then there are teams stuck in the middle. They can be 5-4 or 4-5, heck even 3-6 teams with returning players like Dez Bryant, Mike Evans, and the like from injury can be looking at the glass half-full despite being one, two, even three games out of a playoff berth.
Previous installments of New Reality this season have outlined buy and sell players based on team direction. In this edition and more in the coming weeks will outline bold moves, trading strategy, and strong takes on players. A strong take on a player is a good take. Every fantasy owner and analyst will nail some and whiff on others. The key, like with rookie evaluation and selection, is to hit more than your leaguemates, prudently cash out when possible, and accrue undervalued talent.
Devonta Freeman
I acquired Freeman, my lone share, as part of a bigger deal earlier this season. While I have never been as strong of a supporter as the general market, I was open to Freeman's value in a lineup with consistent usage and in the trade market as a result. A few weeks later, I dealt Freeman away. Why? Here is my 'Sell Freeman' case:
One argument is the 'will a player ever be worth more?' litmus test. Freeman had a historic run of production, at a young age, with free access of all the snaps in the Falcons backfield. Also, the offensive line was creating gaping holes - unexpected for the Falcons' lackluster unit. First off, let's go back to Devonta Freeman the NFL Draft prospect. Yes, I know it is not the end-all, be-all but relevant in my view. Freeman was not just a hum-drum prospect, even for his 103 draft stock, but a horrific one. Freeman was a below-average athlete across the board with a low-level rushing score.
What is concerning about Devonta Freeman's profile is even the successful backs of a similar lackluster metric caliber who have productive seasons faded quickly in the NFL. Over the last 15 years of data, Olandis Gary, Domanick Williams, Julius Jones, C.J. Anderson, and Andre Ellington fit the criteria. Sifting the data a different way, Freeman hitting 18+ PPG in Year 2 (a conservative mark considering his half-season start) paints an equally-pessimistic view. Domanick Williams is the only back even close to Ellington's lack of pedigree in rushing production in college. This list of high-level performers is littered with top draft picks. Williams and Arian Foster are the only backs outside the top-65. Foster had a quality combination of rushing and receiving scores coming out of Tennessee.
Finally, Tevin Coleman was a higher draft pick a year after Devonta Freeman was a mid-round selection by Atlanta. I searched the past 15 years of draft data for similar circumstances involving Round 2-5 drafted running backs in successive years like Freeman to Coleman. Here are the closest examples I found:
Titans took Damien Nash in 2005 (142 overall) followed by Lendale White (45 overall) the following season. White had the role until Chris Johnson (Round 1) took over.
Rams drafted Zac Stacy (160) in 2013 followed by Tre Mason (75). Mason got he shot before giving way to Todd Gurley this season.
Eagles took Brian Correll Buckhalter (121) in 2002 followed by Brian Westbrook (91) in 2002. Westbrook turned into a dominant producer by Year 3.
Chiefs drafted Kolby Smith (148) in 2007 followed by Jamaal Charles (73) in 2008.
Jaguars took Alvin Pearman (127) in 2005 followed by Maurice Jones-Drew in 2006.
Finally, The Bills drafted Sammy Morris (156) in 2000 followed by Travis Henry (58) in 2001.
In every circumstance the second running back received a legitimate chance to be the lead back. Tevin Coleman was in line to do so early in 2015 before injury struck. I compare this to Cincinnati riding the hot hand in Jeremy Hill in 2014 when Giovani Bernard missed time. Hill was hot and finished out the season without injury. I think Devonta Freeman will have the same opportunity in Atlanta. However, the ample red zone opportunities have regressed in recent weeks from his historic pace a month ago. Tevin Coleman is barely sniffing the field with Freeman's strong play. Coleman will receive an opportunity for an expanded role by 2016 at the latest.
As a result of this entire body of skepticism that the current situation remains for Freeman to thrive long-term, I would be shopping Freeman. What might be perceived as a low sell, I dealt Devonta Freeman for Jordan Matthews, a player I view as a more stable long-term talent and commodity, and a 2016 Round 2 selection. This was in a league where I was, and still am competitive.
On a final note, I will reiterate a mantra we discuss regularly on the Under the Helmet dynasty podcast - every player is for sale. I approached a fellow leaguemate with an offer for Odell Beckham. The response was he was untouchable. Not that I recommend trading Beckham or anything, but being open to dealing any trade is a must in my view. Would this Beckham owner really not trade Beckham for say Mike Evans, Demaryius Thomas, and Mark Ingram? My method to a high-leverage player is to make the other owner say no.
An example where this worked was a week ago. An owner inquired about Todd Gurley. While I am in the top tier of Gurley fans out there, I countered with a 'pie in the sky' offer of my own - putting the ball in their court. They could have Gurley - their target player - by clicking accept. I offered Gurley for Amari Cooper and Devonta Freeman. They put Freeman on the block a week prior, so I knew they were not holding him with a vice grip and I figured I could flip or start Freeman as an upgrade. I have Gurley and Cooper close in long-term value. They accepted the deal. In short, you never know how far another owner will go to 'get their guy.' I love the concept of making another say no when they come knocking for a high-value player. Instead of shutting them down by slamming the door in their face, welcome them inside, give them a tour, and then ask for top dollar for the house with the appeal of moving in today.
The Gurley trade precluded the above sell of Devonta Freeman, totaling a deal of selling Todd Gurley for Amari Cooper, Jordan Matthews, and a 2016 Round 2 pick.
