Midseason is a great time to assess the strength of schedule landscape. Touchdown regression is another valuable tool to play the probabilities with high-snap players for the coming games. This first table outlines the longest cold streaks at each skill position for finding the end zone.
- Opportunity - position specific touches in sample
- Matchup Data - 1-to-100 scale from RotoViz.com Buy Low position charts
The return of Alshon Jeffery helps point Jay Cutler in the right direction. Notice Martellus Bennett is also on the list with a 3% touchdown, anemic by tight end standards. Ben Roethlisberger has had two pedestrian games, one since injury absence, and now gets Oakland traveling east without LeVeon Bell in the lineup. All signs point to a sharp correction the next two games.
After Devonta Freeman's touchdown hot streak, he has had a sharp correction with few red zone chances in recent weeks. Now, Atlanta gets a falling apart San Francisco matchup, a bye week to recharge the legs, followed by another juicy matchup with Indianapolis.
Demaryius Thomas has had a strong touchdown rate throughout his career and is working on a historically-low 1-for-56 streak, roughly 2% touchdown rate. Mike Evans has drawn numerous defensive pass interference penalties going beyond the box score and the Giants are an ideal matchup to 'get well' with a touchdown or two this week at home. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have a rough matchup against Carolina, but signs point to a correction upwards by Week 10 against Detroit at the latest.
By position, here is the season to-date data showing a player's 'Hit Rate' - how often they surpasses their average points-per-game score, and their weekly score in relation to said baseline.
Derek Carr has been red hot the last two weeks at 129% and 161%
Eli Manning has three of the worst comparative performance of the top-12 and in typical Manning fashion has also had two high-level games.
Even the lowest scoring quarterbacks have logged top weeks, but their consistency is what lags. Despite looking better in Week 8, Peyton Manning was below his season average.
Alex Smith has only had one game below 79% this season, typical of his low-ceiling but high-floor profile
Devonta Freeman has seen fewer red zone opportunities the past two weeks, outlined easily in this chart
Lamar Miller has been night and day since the Miami bye week
Duke Johnson has been on the rise in recent weeks after a very slow start in Weeks 1-2
In the last four Denver games, Hill has enjoyed his three best performances of the season
DeAndre Hopkins has been Mr.Consistency of the top receivers, two duds total
Allen Robinson is one of the hottest receivers over the past month, three quality showings before the team's Week 8 bye
Calvin Johnson has been quiet with three games of note and three games below 80%
Travis Benjamin is the coldest receiver of those above 14 PPG, two straight duds after a strong opening six weeks
Traveling lower on the list increases the variance quite a bit, a sprinkling of 'boom' games with many forgettable ones
By Gronkowski standards, he saw a significant slump in Weeks 3-6
Gary Barnidge has been ridiculously consistent over the last six weeks
Ben Watson has had two of the best baseline-adjusted performance of all tight ends over the last three weeks
Delanie Walker has been consistent with all but one game of 95% or better
Jimmy Graham has been very boom-bust with four games of 120% or more, the other four 60% or less