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The New Reality No.53: Playing the Stock Market

Outlining touchdown regression candidates and consistency metrics for the first half of the 2015 season

Midseason is a great time to assess the strength of schedule landscape. Touchdown regression is another valuable tool to play the probabilities with high-snap players for the coming games. This first table outlines the longest cold streaks at each skill position for finding the end zone.

  • Opportunity - position specific touches in sample
  • Matchup Data - 1-to-100 scale from RotoViz.com Buy Low position charts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The return of Alshon Jeffery helps point Jay Cutler in the right direction. Notice Martellus Bennett is also on the list with a 3% touchdown, anemic by tight end standards. Ben Roethlisberger has had two pedestrian games, one since injury absence, and now gets Oakland traveling east without LeVeon Bell in the lineup. All signs point to a sharp correction the next two games.

After Devonta Freeman's touchdown hot streak, he has had a sharp correction with few red zone chances in recent weeks. Now, Atlanta gets a falling apart San Francisco matchup, a bye week to recharge the legs, followed by another juicy matchup with Indianapolis.

Jimmy Graham and Delanie Walker are working on long scoreless streaks at tight end, Walker with the better matchup in Week 9 against the Saints.

Demaryius Thomas has had a strong touchdown rate throughout his career and is working on a historically-low 1-for-56 streak, roughly 2% touchdown rate. Mike Evans has drawn numerous defensive pass interference penalties going beyond the box score and the Giants are an ideal matchup to 'get well' with a touchdown or two this week at home. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have a rough matchup against Carolina, but signs point to a correction upwards by Week 10 against Detroit at the latest.

Consistency Metrics

By position, here is the season to-date data showing a player's 'Hit Rate' - how often they surpasses their average points-per-game score, and their weekly score in relation to said baseline.

Quarterbacks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carson Palmer and Drew Brees have been the most boom-bust of the top quarterbacks in overall scoring.

Derek Carr has been red hot the last two weeks at 129% and 161%

Eli Manning has three of the worst comparative performance of the top-12 and in typical Manning fashion has also had two high-level games.

Even the lowest scoring quarterbacks have logged top weeks, but their consistency is what lags. Despite looking better in Week 8, Peyton Manning was below his season average.

Alex Smith has only had one game below 79% this season, typical of his low-ceiling but high-floor profile

Andrew Luck has two games of note all season - only Drew Brees and Ryan Tannehill have been more streaky in the top-20.

Running Backs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Devonta Freeman has seen fewer red zone opportunities the past two weeks, outlined easily in this chart

Lamar Miller has been night and day since the Miami bye week

Mark Ingram has been remarkably consistent, only the now-injured Arian Foster is higher in the top-20 of PPG

Duke Johnson has been on the rise in recent weeks after a very slow start in Weeks 1-2

Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden have combined for 5-of-7 strong games, bodes well for McFadden's larger role

David Johnson's production has fallen off a cliff since Andre Ellington's return made the backfield a three-headed committee

Jeremy Hill has mixed in three quality games with four forgettable games, while Giovani Bernard has had a higher floor week-to-week

In the last four Denver games, Hill has enjoyed his three best performances of the season

 

Wide Receivers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DeAndre Hopkins has been Mr.Consistency of the top receivers, two duds total

Allen Robinson is one of the hottest receivers over the past month, three quality showings before the team's Week 8 bye

Calvin Johnson has been quiet with three games of note and three games below 80%

Travis Benjamin is the coldest receiver of those above 14 PPG, two straight duds after a strong opening six weeks

Traveling lower on the list increases the variance quite a bit, a sprinkling of 'boom' games with many forgettable ones


Tight Ends

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Gronkowski standards, he saw a significant slump in Weeks 3-6

Gary Barnidge has been ridiculously consistent over the last six weeks

Ben Watson has had two of the best baseline-adjusted performance of all tight ends over the last three weeks

Delanie Walker has been consistent with all but one game of 95% or better

Jimmy Graham has been very boom-bust with four games of 120% or more, the other four 60% or less