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Early in the season is a critical point for dynasty owners in the trade market. The sample size is growing, but still small enough for owners to create a storyline of why Player X will reverse their course and production the rest of the year. In addition to the old adage of buying low and selling high, there are also players who warrant buying high(er) and selling low(er) compared to this offseason. Here are some key buy-sell lines by my dynasty values:
Derek Carr: Quarterbacks are tricky commodities with a very league-specific supply and demand. In a start-1QB typical format, the buy-sell line on my board is a mid-second round selection. Carr is on the short list of younger options I am comfortable projecting success from in the next few years. He is reading the field comfortably, his release is quick, and Amari Cooper (plus Michael Crabtree) is a huge boost to his weaponry from 2014. The best news is Carr is likely another owner’s backup option, which is easier to acquire than a front-line starter. If struggling with Colin Kaepernick or the loss of Ben Roethlisberger or Tony Romo, Carr is a quality blend of production, upside, and youth.
Matt Jones: The market has shifted significantly in the past month on Jones, who was comfortably a mid-second to early-third round rookie pick most of the offseason. Now, Jones is worth at least a future first round pick and I would argue a top-five selection. Jones has thoroughly outplayed incumbent Alfred Morris through three games, accelerating the value uptick projected for late in the season or in January when the dynasty community incorporates Morris’ looming free agency into the mix. Instead, Jones is a viable RB2 or flex play now with upside from there. The buy-sell line on my board is around 1.05.
Lamar Miller: The Dolphins are slanting very pass-heavy early this season plus something does not smell right in Miami with Miller. Damien Williams has cut into Miller’s snap count as well as Jonas Gray, the recent addition to the depth chart. Miller’s prospect profile points towards an athletic two-down NFL back, which is spot-on to the game script seen for his career to-date. I am skeptical of Miller rising in value and would explore selling for a discount from his previous career peak. A late-first or early-second is the buy-sell line. Start by offering up Miller around the league for a 2016 first. Also, offer him for equivalent value like John Brown (a deal I made recently) to add to the exit options.
Dion Lewis: Coming from the waiver wire in all but the deepest (or AFC East-only) leagues, Lewis is now firmly on the map as a Round 1 exit asset. Lewis has looked outstanding as everything we thought Shane Vereen could be in the Patriots backfield in recent years, showing lateral explosion, balance, and feel both between the tackles as as a split-out receiver. Lewis allows New England to go from power formations to empty looks from the same personnel grouping – a huge advantage. I would not fault any owner for holding Lewis and riding him. However, sniffing around the marketplace for a future Round 1 selection is the sell line.
LeSean McCoy: Karlos Williams is surging and McCoy continues to bounce runs outside with limited success. At the second level, McCoy can still make defenders miss with lateral explosion, but getting there or winning collisions is not his forte. I would be bailing on McCoy as I do not see him helping contenders much and a strong game by Williams in Week 4 can wilt McCoy’s stock even more. A mid-second is the buy-sell line on my board, but I would start with offers of McCoy and a second for a future first around the league.
Breshad Perriman: A la Odell Beckham in 2014, Perriman’s value has been adjusted from his post-Draft level when nothing has changed. Steve Smith is keeping the lead receiver job in Baltimore warm and the depth chart has little else to challenge Perriman for targets. The Julio Jones-light athletic marvel has a buy-sell line of 1.05-1.06.
Percy Harvin: After being off the radar, Harvin has bounced back with a quality start in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins is on the mend and Harvin is the easy No.2 in the passing game rejuvenated by Tyrod Taylor. Rookie pick 25 overall is the buy-sell line. If an owner can get a late-second, sell. If looking to buy start with a third and add some sugar on top if needed.
Leonard Hankerson: Roddy White is a shadow in Atlanta and while Julio Jones is on an epic pace of targets and production, there are some scraps left over with no tight end presence in town. Hankerson was on the NFL fringe but looks closer to the Round 2 NFL Draft prospect than any point in his career since. Like Percy Harvin, a late-second is the market pivot and Hankerson may even be on the waiver wire in more-shallow leagues still as a priority pickup.
Eric Ebron: The Detroit first round selection from a year ago (notably over Odell Beckham) looks worlds better on tape in his sophomore season. While still sagging from the mid-Round 1 rookie draft status, the buy-sell line is at 12 overall. As a seller, take any future first. As a buyer, look to offer a second rounder and a non-core player to acquire Ebron.
Josh Hill: The athletic New Orleans tight end once carried fringe Round 1 rookie pick value this offseason. Ben Watson has dominated tight end snaps early in the season and the Saints passing game is barely supporting WR3 numbers from Brandin Cooks, let alone anyone else. Hill is droppable in medium-depth leagues (25-man rosters) and worth shopping around for a marginal rookie pick upgrade (Round 5 to Round 4, for example) before cutting ties in deeper leagues.