Projecting young NFL talent is a staple task of the dynasty owner. Selling off assets before a sharp decline is important. Roster construction, mining the waiver wire, and weekly lineup decisions are also key. Scouting college players (and unproven NFL commodities) better than your leaguemates, however, has the greatest potential impact. Odell Beckham Jr is a good example from 2014. He mired on the injury report in August and into the season. Back in May, Beckham was the 1.03-1.05 rookie pick without fail. By August, the top NFL Draft pick was slipping out of the top-8 (or beyond). Beckham is an example of simmering under the 'out of sight, out of mind' injury discount. A blocked depth chart or slow start can also trigger secondary buying opportunities for incoming rookies or slumping sophomores. Here are some notable snap count information to kick things off:
Donte Moncrief vs. Andre Johnson
Johnson looked old and slow in Week 1, holding an 82% to 74% snap advantage over Moncrief, whose dynasty stock sagged since Johnson was signed and Philip Dorsett was drafted this offseason. Week 2 saw a Donte Moncrief breakout game and a reversal in the snap counts (78% Moncrief to 69% Johnson advantage).
Devin Funchess vs. The Field
In Week 1 Devin Funchess saw 37% of the snaps, good for WR4 in Carolina. This week, Funchess boosted his playing time to 49% (WR3) wih Ted Ginn Jr's 63% within reach over the next week or two. Corey Brown is the ho-hum WR1 stand-in at 76% and 77% the opening two games. Funchess is a quality bet to buy, projecting strong snap numbers by midseason with a Kelvin Benjamin-like impact possible.
Hope for Josh Hill?
Hill was a trendy sleeper with Jimmy Graham out of the picture in New Orleans. Ben Watson was declared the starter and saw a whopping 92% of the snaps in Week 1 (Hill just 24%). Watson shifted down to 76% this week and Hill is edging closer to 40%. The Saints are a tough watch on offense, but do not give up on Hill. The passing game has struggled, but is wide open for Hill to move up the ranks in the coming weeks.
Giant Committee?
Shane Vereen looked like the New England version we expected all along before his move to New York. In Week 1, the Giants backfield was a three-headed cluster with all backs between 20% and 42% of the snaps. This week Vereen emerged at 54% and Rashad Jennings, the ho-hum vet, sagging to 28%. Jennings is barely (if at all) worth a roster spot with how Vereen is vacuuming up all the passing work and Andre Williams is a big and athletic runner.
Jets and Dolphins: Passing Prowess?
I projected Kenny Stills has an overrated asset heading into 2015. Greg Jennings was also brought into Miami, DaVante Parker was a mid-Round 1 selection, and Jordan Cameron was another addition this offseason. Stills saw 40% of the snaps in Week 1 and 52% in Week 2...both as WR4 on the team. Miami is running a boatload of spread looks with Ryan Tannehill in the shotgun and it could be even more with DeVante Parker up to speed in October. Parker saw 25% of snaps in Week 2 after a single snap to open the season. The Jets are in a similar boat as Quincy Enunwa - metric favorite as an NFL Draft prospect - their WR4 saw >40% of the snaps both games this season.
Cody Latimer: Mr.Invisible
Early in the offseason the talk was if Latimer could emerge as a dominant WR3 on the Broncos depth chart or evne beat out Emmanuel Sanders. After 8% of the snaps in Week 1 and even less in Week 2, Latimer is in complete afterthought mode in a Denver offense struggling to support their main dynasty assets, let alone any new ones. Latimer was a boom-bust prospect profile and through two years he has been a complete bust production-wise and now the rookie honeymoon of insulated dynasty value is over.
Me and Mr.Jones Have a Thing Going On
I was infatuated with Matt Jones in the pre-draft process this year. Landing in Washington was ideal as incumbent Alfred Morris could keep Jones' initial purchase price in check for 2015 with free agency on the horizon come January. After Jones flashed on just 13% of the snaps to open the season, Matt Jones' welcome party commenced this week in a near-dead heat with Morris in terms of snaps and providing highlight run after highlight run in the process. Looks like by January, I meant late September.
Ladarius Green: Spread Your Wings
September was dubbed the 'Month of Ladarius' in dynasty circles with Antonio Gates suspended for four games and the long wait for Green to be a full-time starter was over. Green has performed well over two games with 84% and 92% of snaps in the process. San Diego looks like one of the best offenses in the NFL and Green's burst and long speed from the tight end position has been a welcome addition over the middle.
Crockett Gillmore: get in line, Rookie
Maxx Williams was considered the standalone tight end at the top of the prospect rankings for 2015. After dipping in the NFL Draft a bit, Gillmore was named the Week 1 starter in Baltimore. Rookie tight ends are typically slow starters (by NFL and fantasy standards), but Gillmore is surging with the opportunity, 93% and 95% of the snaps respectively plus a breakout performance against Oakland in Week 2. Baltimore has a good problem on their hands at tight end.
Dion Lewis: Remember Me?
Dion Lewis is such a Patriots player: overlooked, ignored, off-the-radar, and now shredding opposing defenses. Back in 2011 as a college prospect, Lewis entered the NFL with a dominant production track record from Pitt in rushing and receiving. With LeGarrette Blount out in Week 1, Lewis saw 75% of the snaps to Brandon Bolden's 25%. In Week 2, Lewis was even more dominant at 85% with Blount, Bolden, and Travaris Cadet all under 10%. Lewis has shown between-the-tackles prowess and the ability to regularly beat defenders as a split out receiver. Lewis looks like everything we thought-hoped-projected Shane Vereen to be in New England's offense over the years. I have a hard time seeing too many 'non-Dion Lewis' weeks in the New England game plan.
Seth Roberts: Obscure This
Seth Roberts is arguably the least-known offensive skill position player to see at least 60% of the team's snaps each week this season. He dominated wide receiver snaps as the No.3 in Oakland behind Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Roberts is not listed on myfantasyleague.com's most-owned list, which currently shows 148 wide receivers above 2% ownership. Roberts is WR67 in PPR points through two games, caught a touchdown in Week 2, and Derek Carr looked outstanding in this week. The 2014 prospect at 6'2" with above-average athleticism should at least be owned, that's all I am saying...
