This week will be more random and scattershot than the typical focus of The New Reality. The first thing I would like to discuss is Odell Beckham Jr I hope folks are soaking in exactly what we are witness to this season. While I was out in front about the historical significance of the 2014 rookie class of wide receivers, I did not have expectations as high as the year one production in process. Beckham is front and center of the rookie crop and is doing something never seen before. Odell Beckham is averaging more fantasy points per game as a rookie receiver than any player since the merger (non-PPR, minimum 150 fantasy points). Randy Moss is the only receiver within even a point of Beckham and that was more than 15 years ago. Keenan Allen grazed the 10 PPG mark in 2013 and Mike Evans is shaping up as the second-best rookie receiver on a per-game basis in the last decade. Averaging at least 0.80 receiving touchdowns per game is also rarified air as a rookie. Randy Moss' 17-touchdown debut season sets the bar ridiculously high, but Beckham at 0.90 and Mike Evans at 0.85 are right there in the second tier, where no new player has populated since Moss.
Fantasy PPG: Rookie Season WRs Since 1970
- 15.5 Odell Beckham Jr/li>
- 14.6 Randy Moss
- 12.8 John Jefferson
- 12.4 Mike Evans
- 11.8 Anquan Boldin
- 10.9 Louis Lipps
- 10.8 Marques Colston
- 10.5 Joey Galloway
- 10.3 Michael Clayton
- 10.2 Terry Glenn
- 10.2 A.J. Green
- 10.2 Keenan Allen
- 10.2 Mike Williams (TB)
- 10.1 Billy Brooks
A discussion I have brought up at various points this season has been ranking these top-flight rookies. Odell Beckham is hard to ignore as well as Mike Evans. Add in Sammy Watkins (remember he was the first one to flash strong play of that trio), plus Brandin Cooks and Allen Robinson (out of sight, out of mind with their injury-shortened seasons). Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews have been strong performers at points. Davante Adams is simmering as WR3 in Green Bay. Donte Moncrief has flashed and just missed a couple more big games. Jarvis Landry currently leads all rookies with 71 receptions. Martavis Bryant, like Moncrief, has flashed upside and potential for 2015 and beyond.
There is a strong argument to have Beckham, Evans, and Watkins, in some order, as 1-2-3 in the overall dynasty wide receiver rankings. My argument for that stance is that they are four or more years younger than the consensus top receivers from the preseason and are close to, if not exceeding, their current production. We have seen cracked mount in Calvin Johnson's dynasty value of late. At 29.9 years old to start the 2015 season, Johnson is one of those assets that can be false security if treated like an unquestioned stud. The trio have all had average (at best) quarterback play and yet are doing historic things at 21 and 22 years old. Many dynasty rankings hedge with all three of them outside the top-5 or even top-10 with some closer to WR20 than WR10. That is the anti-New Reality right there.
While dynasty is a long-term game, things change fast. Watkins, Evans, and Beckham were all rock-solid prospects prior to the NFL draft. Then were all drafted in the top-12. The NFL sentiment aligned with the metrics. Then these top prospects shot out of the gate and performed on par with most of the already established top receivers in the league. Why NOT take them at the top of the first round of startup drafts, believe what they have shown, and enjoy the age-insulation of a young talent? Beyond Beckham, Watkins, and Evans, another nine rookie receivers are in my top-30 when looking at raw long-term value. That does not including John Brown or Marqise Lee.
The 2015 rookie class (players returning to school TBD) is shaping up to be different than 2014. While there are a handful of wide receivers that are in the neighborbood of the 2014 crop at this early stage, the running backs are front-and-center. One aspect I use to judge the quality of a rookie class is their projection model outlook. For example, using 70 as an overall prospect score cutoff (1-100 range, 50 being the average for drafted back since 1999), there are 13 running backs in 2015 above that mark. Official measurements and athletic drills are the only variable left to add into the equation.
Changes can and will occur, but age-weighted production has a greater impact on their long-term fantasy outlook by the numbers. 2014 saw only five backs with scores of at least 70, two of which went undrafted (one was Isaiah Crowell). No drafted running back in 2014 topped an overall score of 75. The 2012 and 2013 classes had four backs each with scores of 70+ and 2011 had five. Once again I will say that the 2015 class currently has 13, four of which are above 80, and Todd Gurley is in the rarified air of at least 90.
This is the draft class we as dynasty owners have been waiting for to restock the running back cupboard with young talent. This is the best projected class since 2008. One can list on a single hand the running backs that will be under the age of 28 years old in 2015 and have at least one quality NFL season under their belt with a defined role. While Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Devin Funchess are sure to garner plenty of attention during the pre-draft process, evaluating and valuing the Jay Ajayi, T.J. Yeldon, Kenneth Dixon, Duke Johnson, and David Johnson class of running backs that will be available in some subset in the late first round and beyond of rookie drafts will be paramount to dynasty owners' ultimate success.
