Once the NFL season gets to the halfway point, my dynasty values in addition to the age component, shift to the 2015 calendar year. Contending teams are busy acquiring their missing piece or two, dealing with injuries, and prepping for the playoff push. The rest of the teams, however, need to get to work. Reloading a dynasty team for the future is a vital aspect to getting out the bottom-half of the league’s power rankings and the next few weeks are vital to prepping for next season.
Why Advance to 2015 Already?
Any non-playoff teams needs to be thinking in 2015 terms today. Not tomorrow or in Week 12 or when the league opens back up for business in the offseason. Today. Each passing week allows other teams into the mix looking to make similar forward-thinking moves and turning a seller’s market into a buyer’s one. In fact, for non-playoff teams, those short-term assets and producers are not just rotting on your roster for the rest of the season, they will be near impossible to trade for something of value the offseason, and are actually hurting the status of their 2015 rookie picks. Every win or additional fantasy point scored (at least in leagues that order rookie picks by record/points) is a detriment to the future of the roster. The 1.03 pick and 1.06 pick may seem months away and a negligible difference now, in the heart of the season, but come March or May, it will be significant.
This is not about tanking or intentionally throwing fantasy matchups down the stretch, it is about trading away current producers that are non-core assets for future capital or young, unproven talent. How many wins will Ronnie Hillman give an average to below-average roster over the next couple of months? It may be one or two. That can be the difference between a top rookie pick and a middle-of-the-round selection – in each round. Trading up immediately prior to or during a rookie draft can be costly. In that instance, another owner is the variable in negotiations and could thwart any reasonable attempt to move up a handful of spots. Now, in October and November, the task is easier. In addition to positioning an owner with additional draft capital and making moves up the board, trading away short-term production gives an owner something in return without the cloud of uncertainty in the offseason. Here are a few high-producing options that are sell candidates from weaker dynasty teams towards the objectives above:
*Ages listed for the Week 1 of the 2015 season, the next meaningful game for non-playoff dynasty teams*
Quarterbacks
- Peyton Manning: Even at his high-level of play, the end is near. While selling for a future second is too low, I have seen Manning dealt for a 2015 first plus a young player. Manning is the quintessential asset that is appealing to at least one contender per league and can improve the non-playoff team's first round pick through being traded away, a win-win scenario.
Running Backs
- Ronnie Hillman: Is this Knowshon Moreno 2.0? Not an overt talent, situationally-valued is always a gamble, would be able to add a late first in a trade. I would feel uncomfortable holding into the offseason with Hillman outside of a contender needing to lean on his short-term pop.
- Ahmad Bradshaw: Will be 29.5 years old for 2015 season and doing his touchdown work through the air. Getting any second round rookie pick will be unlikely in the offseason.
- Marshawn Lynch: A late first, even if throwing in a later rookie pick or a lower-end additional veteran is a nice exit value for a 29-year old running back. He will be untradeable in the offseason.
- Arian Foster: Similar to Lynch, but appealing to contending teams more with his heavy workload. Any production drop-off leaves trade value on the table going forward for a back his age.
- Shane Vereen: Minimal competition for touches currently and entering free agency at age 26 without consistent usage to-date.
- Jamaal Charles: Could be Matt Forte-like value if holding into next season, but one of the few desireable running back acquisitions for strong contenders. With age accelerated, Charles on the top-10 running back fringe even prior to the 2015 rookies added to the mix.
Wide Receivers
- Brandon Marshall: Underwhelming this year, skating by on name value, will be 31.5 years old at 2015 kickoff, still possible to get an option like Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, or another 2014 rookie receiver, or more in return.
- Pierre Garcon: Older than most think (29.1 years old for 2015) and not a top-shelf talent. A mid-to-late first is a worthy exit price.
- Andre Johnson: The eject button is calling. Underperforming despite volume being there. Use a package to get into the top-15 of rookie drafts.
- Vincent Jackson: Mike Evans is emerging in year one and Jackson is on the decline at 32.7 years old. He falls into the 'lucky to get any second round rookie pick' range of the trade market.
- Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Reggie Wayne are three receivers a non-playoff owner can simply not hold into the offseason. Tough to sell, but make a package to marginally upgrade rookie picks at a minimum.
Tight Ends
- Jason Witten: Seen an uptick in production of late, another chance to shop to a contender. Even a late-second is a worthy exit or targeting someone like Jace Amaro in return.
- Antonio Gates: The production is there to help an otherwise strong team, 35 years old in 2015, classic player to package up for rookie pick upgrade
Final Thoughts
Selling dynasty assets like most of the ones listed above, that were once prominent players, can be a tough decision. They may have been a key part to a title run or two in previous seasons or acquired long ago as a badge of achievement in the owner's cap through a savvy trade or draft pick. The end-game is doing what is best for the future of a dynasty roster. Now is the best time to sell veterans past the midpoint of their fantasy lifespan or productive players that emerged from the depths. In the offseason, scrutiny builds regarding every player, to the detriment of older players or those without the measurables or upside to garner mass market appeal. Create a market by proposing deals to every contender involving a player, asking for similar value packages in return. Include teams that are on the edge of the playoffs as well. Teams at .500 may be most willing to set up with a strong offer thinking they are 'one piece away' or have been unlucky through two months of the season. With a downturn, that mid-to-late rookie pick can mold itself into an early one by season's end.
