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With three weeks in the books, trends are beginning to form for NFL offenses and their main weapons. Patience is the ultimate name of the game. Whether a dynasty team starts out 3-0, feeling invincible, or 0-3 with little light at the end of the 2014 season tunnel, there are moves to make.
Contending Teams
Quarterbacks
From the offers observed out there in the dynasty community, Aaron Rodgers’ price tag is more affordable than the preseason. Depending on the format, a future first alone may get him. Philip Rivers is the much cheaper option that is likely another owner’s QB2 and in the late second, or lower, rookie pick price range. Owners that banked on Robert Griffin III or Tony Romo might need to make a move in the coming weeks. In general, the recommendation is hold tight at quarterback with a cheap committee and a strong lineup around them.
Running Backs
Donald Brown may only be serviceable for the next month or so, but Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City are must-starts in that span. A future second, or even less, should be enough to secure Brown. Rashad Jennings is the top-shelf option of the group as the unquestioned starter. At 29 years old, if Jennings' owner falls out of the playoff chase, he becomes a hot commodity amongst the contending teams in the league. An early offer is preferred to cut the line of potential suitors during the bye week gauntlet. Fred Jackson is the most affordable of this trio and a future third, if a stopgap option is needed, will be the target price as a short-term rental.
Wide Receivers
Steve Smith has been one of the surprises of the first three weeks and is likely the cheapest acquisition of this elder trio. A future third would get Smith or Wayne off a majority of rebuilding teams. Roddy White falls into the future second or a decent young prospect range in the trade market. White is a timely purchase as he will cost more once back on the field.
Tight Ends
Outside of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Julius Thomas, there may not be a more comfortable weekly starter at tight end than Martellus Bennett. Through three games, Bennett is pacing Jimmy Graham in PPR scoring. Larry Donnell keeps churning out starting-caliber production and folks continue to doubt his involvement in the offense, overall skill level, or both. Outside of the big three tight ends, Bennett, and Greg Olsen, Donnell is quite possibly the best starter remaining. Donnell owners might perceive a future third as ‘selling high’ but the buyer is getting a strong committee option, at worst, for this season.
Rebuilding Teams
Quarterbacks
- Blake Bortles
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Ryan Tannehill
- Zach Mettenberger
- Jimmy Garopolo
Bortles and Bridgewater performed well in their first regular season playing time last week. Bortles was a significant topic on Under the Helmet this week and I broke down every pass and rushing attempt of Teddy Bridgewater in an article a few days ago. Outside of the pick-six interception, Blake Bortles’ accuracy was impressive, as well as his mobility and arm strength. Take away the different jersey and shades of rookie Andrew Luck were present. Bridgewater exhibited mobility beyond my expectations and handled the New Orleans road environment well. Quarterbacks in general have a depressed market value in start-one formats, so their trade value of a late second round rookie pick as not changed much since the summer.
For those that still believe, I am one of them, now is the time to put in offers for Ryan Tannehill. The recent news has been murky at best regarding Tannehill as the Miami starter. A future third may get him in the trade market. In two-quarterback leagues, expect a mid-first to be the asking price, or more, for Bortles or Bridgewater. Ryan Tannehill may be available for an early second. Zach Mettenberger and Jimmy Garopolo are future plays with trouble looming with their teams' starter out of the gate. A future third, even in premium formats, is a strong offer.
Running Backs
- Bishop Sankey
- Carlos Hyde
- Adrian Peterson
- Mark Ingram
- Stevan Ridley
- Tre Mason
- Ka’Deem Carey
- Charles Sims
A mixed bag of future targets here at running back. In general, the play at the position is to stockpile 2015 rookie picks in what looks to be the best class since 2008. The Bishop Sankey train is leaving the station soon and the ability to get even a slight discount on his top-5 rookie pick price tag of the preseason is fading with each passing week. Carlos Hyde continues to emerge behind the Frank Gore shadow and looks to be a penciled in starter for 2015, if not by the end of this season. A mid-first acquisition will seem like a discount come the offseason. Adrian Peterson is a wild card, but I have seen his owners move on for next to nothing. Adam Harstad did a thorough analysis of valuing Peterson for dynasty and I nodded my head consistently throughout the piece.
Mark Ingram and Stevan Ridley are 2015 plays as Ingram is set to miss the next month or so (was on a locked-in double-digit touchdown pace prior) and both are likely to see a value bump when free agency hits this coming offseason. Ingram can be a mid-RB2 when he returns this season, so time is of the essence. A future second likely gets Ridley in a trade, while Ingram may require an additional small piece.
Wide Receivers
- Keenan Allen
- Odell Beckham
- Torrey Smith
- Cody Latimer
- Kenny Britt
Keenan Allen’s discount may end in the next week or two as the strength of schedule lightens up for San Diego wide receivers. Jacksonville in Week 4 may close the door to a large degree. Allen was regularly in the top-15 to top-18 overall for startups this summer, but I speculate a price point in the third round at the present. Let's not forget that Allen had one of the best age 21 recieving seasons of all-time. A future first may get a deal done with an antsy owner. Torrey Smith looks poised for a value bump come free agency time. He needs a change of scenery more than any wide receiver. Odell Beckham is one of my strongest trade target recommendations over the next week or two. Like Allen Robinson, once Beckham gets on the field, the opportunity will be lost rather quickly. Throw out offers that include non-core players for Smith and Beckham to improve bench upside in 2015. Remember when Cody Latimer had all the buzz in the preseason? Now, the outlook appears back to where it was in May – a 2015 and beyond play as the depth chart thins in front of him. Kenny Britt was on the dynasty fringe prior to a solid Week 3 that showed flashes of the ball skills and down-the-field ability years ago. Even in 22-man roster leagues, Britt is a hold for now as the reports have been positive all along the way in St.Louis.
Tight Ends
Tyler Eifert was off to a hot start early in Week 1 prior to his elbow injury. When a player is not on the field, it is a prime opportunity to accumulate talent on a dynasty roster. A future second is a viable offer for Eifert. Some trendy breakout players the dynasty community calls for a year too early. Ladarius Green is shaping up as one of those players. Antonio Gates is still performing well enough and Green will be hit-or-miss this season. Green’s arrival date is now 2015 when his acquisition cost will be less than the top-75 ADP that ended the preseason. Finally, Austin Seferian-Jenkins is on track to return to the field in Week 4 and Brandon Myers is nothing more than a placeholder as Jenkins develops. Arguably one of the best blends of physical talent and college production amongst the 2014 rookie prospects at any position, Jenkins has the upside to challenge the top trio in the tight end rankings. An offer of Vernon Davis or even Dwayne Allen straight up would likely be well-received to acquire Seferian-Jenkins.
