While dynasty fantasy football is a 365-day event each year, the season is upon us. No matter how much tape we have ground, metrics we have calculated, or strategies we have tested upon tested, there will be some serious plate tectonics in motion minutes after the regular season kicks off. Prior to the impending earthquake of shifting player value, here are the key strategy points to keep in mind:
Use Caution Filling a Weakness
Amidst the 1000s of questions I receive in the offseason, one branch of strategy questions is how to best address a ‘need’ position. Caution would be the key word. A common move once waivers open in January is to drop a dynasty team’s kicker and defense for additional flyers. Then, leading up to week one, the team pares down their roster to accommodate the obligatory non-offensive starters. I recommend addressing a weak position in a similar fashion: Wait as long as possible and be frugal. Running back depth charts will gain clarity in September, injuries will happen, and non-starters will be automatic weekly plays within a few weeks. Depth is a fickle thing and rarely does a fantasy roster have too much of it.
Create a Deep Watchlist
Every step of the way in the offseason, a dynasty owner should be adding to their bulging watchlist: veterans prior to the rookie draft, undrafted youngsters following the draft, and camp standouts during the summer. The most important aspect is to remember why a player made your list. Are they athletically gifted, but deep down a depth chart? An under-the-radar handcuff? Clarifying why they are on the watchlist to begin with will streamline the waiver wire strategy in-season.
Handicap Your League
Whether the process is using redraft auction values, ADP, or the good old eye test, make a rough set of power rankings for the league. Things can change quickly in September, but having a solid framework for the contending, middling, and rebuilding teams is vital. A middling team, for example, may react differently to a poor September than an obvious rebuilding owner. Know what team may be in the market for a short-term band-aid and which will prefer to unload those stopgap assets for a future pick or two. Knowledge is power and acting swiftly can result in a trade market advantage.
Players I Like More than Most for 2014
Russell Wilson: If the offense opens up at all with the return of Percy Harvin and infusion of Paul Richardson Jr, Wilson becomes a mid-QB1 at a minimum.
Joique Bell: Expect a close to 50-50 split with Reggie Bush in total touches, plus Bell gets the goal line. Bell is a comfortable low-RB2 with an RB1 ceiling if Bush misses any time.
Fred Jackson: Like Bell, Jackson is the unsexy half of a committee backfield. C.J. Spiller sees a goal line carry as often as a solar eclipse and Jackson is a rock-solid pass protector. Expect a flex play floor with mid-RB2 upside with a Spiller cramp, pull, or bruise along the way.
Percy Harvin: Like the novella of Harvin by Adam Harstad reads, he has been an elite football player since stepping on a football field. We have yet to see Harvin’s full impact on the Seattle offense (see Russell Wilson’s comments) and few deny Harvin’s points-per-game prowess when on the field. The injury discount is in effect and if Harvin is healthy for most of the season, he will win fantasy titles for owners that invested for 2014.
Aaron Dobson: The second-year receiver is a borderline afterthought in fantasy circles, despite being a WR2 performer when healthy and starting for New England last season. No other Patriots receiver offers Dobson’s outside-the-numbers skillset. Like Harvin, Dobson is a player that can tilt the power rankings of a league with a string of health this season.
Heath Miller: The Steelers have no other red zone threats and we saw what Jerricho Cotchery did with that role last season. Miller is healthy and Ben Roethlisberger has peppered him with targets when the first team has been on the field in the preseason. Miller is the cheapest tight end option out there with double-digit touchdown upside.
Players I Like Less than Most for 2014
Peyton Manning: I see the offense shrinking closer and closer to the line of scrimmage, plus regression is hard to ignore coming off historic seasons. Also, I do not buy that 40 touchdowns is Manning’s floor.
Trent Richardson: It seems like 75% of folks have given up on Richardson, but the remaining 25% are still buying, holding, and thinking there is a magic bean in there somewhere. Betting on a volume-based RB2 (if that) is a losing proposition. Nothing in the preseason (or any of 2013) indicates a turnaround is coming for the once-heralded fantasy and dynasty asset as a rookie.
Chris Johnson: His best and worst quality of the last few seasons has been durability. By not missing time, Johnson has the ‘lipstick on a pig’ appearance at the end of the season, but is a headache to own during the year. Expect more of the same as Johnson shies away from contact and waits, like fantasy owners, for the occasional wide-open running lane.
Pierre Garcon: Last year was the perfect storm for Garcon to see a glut of targets with Jordan Reed missing significant time and Washington trailing with regularity. Reed is back and DeSean Jackson was added to the receiver group. Add in the variability of Robert Griffin III III and his up-and-down play from the pocket, and a steep fall is in the works for Garcon.
T.Y. Hilton: Like Pierre Garcon, Hilton had the perfect storm for a breakout season in 2013. This year, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen are back. Hakeem Nicks was signed. Donte Moncrief was drafted. Da’Rick Rogers is still developing after a hectic offseason as a rookie finding an NFL roster.
Charles Clay: Outside of Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, the Dolphins passing game had little to offer in 2013. Jarvis Landry and Knowshon Moreno were added as viable possession targets on third down. Plus the run game has to be improved from an anemic showing last year. Add those factors to Clay being a non-traditional tight end and signs point to 2013 being Clay’s career year.