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This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
The beautiful thing about the regular slate of Thursday games is the opportunity to see a sampling of the ownership rates for weekend players. In high-leverage tournaments, having a few common players is not a preferred strategy. Here in 50/50 and Double-Up land, it is a strong play. Players owned by at least 20% of the teams indicate they are universally-coveted and strong plays to finish with a positive value-to-cost ratio.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Digging through a nearly 30,000 entries between two Double-Up contests that closed Thursday night, here are the most-owned FanDuel players at each position this week:
*Players on at least 10% of teams included, salary following player name, best matchup indicates top tier in efficiency allowed by opponent*
LAST WEEK'S MOST COMMON LINEUP
- Eli Manning, 6.3 points
- Matt Forte, 32.7 points
- Branden Oliver, 20.4 points
- Julio Jones, 8.9 points
- Mohamed Sanu, 23 points
- Golden Tate, 7.9 points
- Martellus Bennett, 9.2 points
- Robbie Gould, 7 points
- Denver, 15 points
QUARTERBACKS
- 9% - Joe Flacco, 7700
- 8% - Aaron Rodgers, 9700
- 8% - Brian Hoyer, 6400, *Elite Matchup Play*
No quarterbacks made it over the 10% threshold this week in ownership, showing the muddy hierarchy of 10 or even 15 viable choices. The best matchups of the week from a fantasy efficiency allowed standpoint are for Brian Hoyer, the Titans, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson.
RUNNING BACKS
- 36% - Justin Forsett, 6200, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 19% - Andre Ellington, 7100
- 18% - Ben Tate, 7300
- 18% - DeMarco Murray, 9400, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 11% - Branden Oliver, 7400
Justin Forsett is the play of the week at the position and draws Atlanta, who is allowing the second-most fantasy points per carry in the NFL. Interestingly, Giovani Bernard has the best matchup of the week (vs. Indianapolis) and is lightly-owned. Bernard looks like a strong tournament play when looking for lineup uniqueness. DeMarco Murray has been automatic regardless of price thus far and draws a great matchup against the Giants.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- 28% - Golden Tate, 6700, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 19% - Jordy Nelson, 8900, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 18% - Brandon Marshall, 7700
- 16% - Mohamed Sanu, 7200
- 13% - T.Y. Hilton, 7600
- 12% - Antonio Brown, 8700
- 12% - Steve Smith, 7700, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 11% - James Jones, 5500
This is the second straight week as the top owned wide receiver for Golden Tate. He had a down game in Week 6, but returns with a favorable matchup and no Calvin Johnson for a chance at redemption. The options are plentiful, as usual, here with all the price points covered. With cheap options available at other positions, a receiver group of nearly any three of these is possible. Heading into the lineup lock I expected Andre Holmes to make the list, but teammate James Jones is the preferred option against the Cardinals secondary on the decline.
TIGHT ENDS
- 19% - Jordan Reed, 5400, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 11% - Jordan Cameron, 6100
Jordan Reed's price is hard to ignore coming off a strong week and getting the Titans leaky tight end efficiency allowed. If the Browns get up on the Jaguars, like the Steelers last week, Cameron may rely on a singular big play to buoy his fantasy day.
KICKERS
- 14% - Shayne Graham, 4600
- 9% - Shaun Suisham, 4700
- 7% - Cairo Santos, 4500
All cheap options this week and Graham gets the projected shootout with the Lions. An extra few hundred dollars saved here can go towards a preferred skill position option.
DEFENSES
- 26% - Buffalo, 5000
- 16% - Dallas, 4600
- 10% - Seattle, 5300, *Elite Matchup Play*
- 10% - Cleveland, 5200, *Elite Matchup Play*
The Vikings have shown little on offense of late and the Bills benefit this week. It is mandatory for the Jaguars opponent (Browns) to make this list weekly. Seattle looks to rebound against the Rams, who are giving up a ton of DST points. Finally, Dallas has been playing well and is by far the cheapest of the group at a trendy 4600.
