This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system quite often. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Overall Philosophy
I combine many online projections, including those from Footballguys.com as a starting point to create a value board at each position. Then I analyze matchup data in terms of efficiency allowed, strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defense, and regression factors.
QUARTERBACKS
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Mark Sanchez (6600), Matt Ryan (7800), and Ben Roethlisberger (8300) form the top tier this week. All have positive matchups by quarterbacks fantasy efficiency allowed and face woeful secondary units. Roethlisberger gets the top efficiency matchup (Jets) out there for quarterbacks, which is a good combination with New York's stingy run defense, a third straight big game could be in the cards. Matt Ryan is a similar option against Tampa Bay for 500 less on FanDuel. Mark Sanchez is hard not to use this week against a bottom-tier Panthers pass coverage unit according to ProFootballFocus.com (PFF) and a savings of 1200-1700 over Ryan and Roethlisberger.
Alternates
With three top options this week, alternatives at quarterback are not needed. If looking for a stud, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are both in play at 9900 and 10000 respectively, but can squeeze some of the wide receivers I will outline for the week as a result. Cam Newton and Joe Flacco are secondary options in the mid-range of price at 7700 and 7200. Newton faces a more difficult PFF pass rush and coverage unit than any of the other quarterbacks discussed here, breaking ties against him in Week 10. Joe Flacco has middling matchup metrics this week, which keeps him from consideration with the top three values or the two studs.
RUNNING BACKS
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After an injury scare in the first half last week, value darling Jeremy Hill delivered with a big second half. He is a top option for the second straight week with Giovani Bernard out of the lineup. The Browns are an above-average efficiency matchup for opposing running backs (+12% compared to the NFL average) and the Bengals are favorites, projecting a run-based game script. Hill's price elevated to 6900, but still grades out as the clear top value at running back in Week 10. Worth noting that RotoViz.com has Hill's floor and median production in the similarity app equal to any other decent value at running back as well.
Alternates
The second running back spot behind Hill this week will be dependent on salary restraints at other positions. My typical lineup-building method begins with getting the top handful of values across the board locked in, then look at available salary for the remaining spots. DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte are both good values despite their 9300+ price point. Forte's combination of Chicago run-blocking (+31) and Green Bay's run defense (-24) is mighty attractive when combined with his receiving floor in a potential shootout. Murray has a strong combination of run defense matchup (-23), a conservative offense, and playing the Jaguars with a likely positive game script. Moving down in salary, LeSean McCoy comes in as the No.3 value at running back for the week. At 7700, about 15 points covers him for cash games. The value has been there for McCoy, but just a single touchdown on the seaon has held down his weekly ceiling thus far. The Eagles can do anything they want against Carolina this week and getting McCoy on track is in order. Plus the Eagles are getting healthy along the offensive line. Going with Hill and McCoy allows for a splurge play at wide receiver, tight end, or running back, which is a major plus as McCoy has a similar floor and median projection to Murray and Forte this week. Looking to diversify rosters beyond the top-4? Justin Forsett (6500) and Bobby Rainey (6700) stand out as low-cost plays.
Wide Receivers
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It is hard to not include Antonio Brown as a top play and the numbers like Brown head and shoulders above any other receiver in Week 10. His floor and ceiling top any other receiver on RotoViz and 9100 is still affordable considering his great matchup (Jets) and their leaky pass coverage (-21 on PFF). Brown, like Jeremy Hill, is one of first players to ink into lineups this week.
Alternates
Julio Jones is a strong No.2 to Antonio Brown for value this week. The Falcons are coming off a disappointing Week 8 loss in London and a Week 9. Look for the Atlanta passing game to 'get right' against Tampa Bay, which at +26% efficiency against receivers is a prime opportunity for Jones and Roddy White (6600) to thrive. Demaryius Thomas is of similar value to Julio Jones, but at 9000 is too costly to combine with Antonio Brown at WR1/2 this week. The final wide receivers to mention include Mike Evans (6600), Kelvin Benjamin (6700), Jordy Nelson (8500), and Brandon Marshall (7300). Evans gets the horrible Falcons pass coverage unit (-35 on PFF) that are +11% in efficiency allowed on the season. Benjamin continues to see a ton of targets and production will follow unlike last week's non-performance against the Saints. Both are solid bets any week for a touchdown and have promising matchups this week. A combination of either of them with Antonio Brown and Julio Jones is an ideal wide receiver lineup card this week. Jordy Nelson and Brandon Marshall are both pricier options, but the Packers-Bears game is a projected shootout that is worthy of heavy consideration. Jordy Nelson burned owners against the Saints two weeks ago as a heavily-owned player, but the game turned into the Randall Cobb show instead. Nelson will get his and the lower price point is more appealing than in previous weeks.
TIGHT ENDS
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Larry Donnell is a top option again in Week 10. Most would not guess it, but the Seahawks have been horrible against tight ends on a per-target basis this season at +35%. At 5300, Donnell gives plenty of flexibility to stack top receivers or mix in a top running back or quarterback for cash lineups. Jimmy Graham is another solid value at 7500. When studs are affordable, they are in play regardless of the matchup. The 49ers are stingy against tight ends (-29%) but Patrick Willis has been missing practice this week and needs to be monitored heading into the weekend. Without Willis, Graham vaults to the top spot for value.
Alternates
Donnell and Graham offer high and low-cost options. Martellus Bennett is this week's No.3 tight end value at a middle ground cost of 6500. Bennett has a neutral matchup against Green Bay, but the over/under is appealing. Owen Daniels at 5400 offers another Donnell-like option if blending lineup variations.
KICKERS
Four sub-5000 kickers are at the top of the value board this week, which will make mixing them up a breeze with any cap situation. Mason Crosby and Chandler Catanzaro are the top options at 4800 and 4700 respectively. Brandon McManus is also an option at 4700 in a likely blowout against Oakland. Matt Bryant is the most attractive option for less (4500) if the extra 200-300 enables an owner to upgrade at another position.
DEFENSES
Two defenses stand out this week in the value model: the Cardinals and Ravens. Both are at home against leaky pass-blocking units and young quarterbacks (Austin Davis and Zach Mettenberger respectively). The Ravens also have a top pass-rushing unit at PFF (+53) making them the preferred play by the matchups. At 5300 though, Baltimore may be a squeeze to get into lineups. The Cardinals at 5100 is easier on the budget. Those two options should encompass most of the optimized lineups. If diversifying further, add Pittsburgh (at Jets) into the mix at 5000 as what are the odds Michael Vick keeps the turnover maching set to 'low' for a second straight week, and Green Bay (vs. Chicago) is the cheap option of choice at 4500 to allow for spending elsewhere.
