FanDuel, Playing the Percentages: Week 5

Photo: Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports

This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.

Here are some general player selection guidelines:

HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS

The beautiful thing about the regular slate of Thursday games is opportunity to see a sampling of the ownership rates for weekend players. In high-leverage tournaments, having a few common players is not a preferred strategy. Here in 50/50 and Double-Up land, it is a strong play. Players owned by at least 20% of the teams indicate they are universally-coveted and strong plays to finish with a positive value-to-cost ratio.

HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS

A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.

BEST MATCHUPS

In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the best matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.

Digging through a nearly 5,000 entries between two Double-Up contests that closed Thursday night, here are the most-owned FanDuel players at each position this week:

*Players on at least 10% of teams included, salary following player name, best matchup indicates top tier in positional points allowed by opponent*

Last Week's Most Common Lineup

• Philip Rivers, 27.1 points
• Donald Brown, 7.4 points
• Lamar Miller, 17.7 points
• Antonio Brown, 29.3 points
• Steve Smith, 29.4 points
• Golden Tate, 15.6 points
• Jimmy Graham, 16.6 points
• Shayne Graham, 5 points
• San Diego, 10 points

Quarterbacks

• 16% - Drew Brees, 9100, *Great Matchup*
• 10% - Eli Manning, 7300

Last week saw a couple more high-ownership quarterbacks. Brees gets a second straight week on this list. His high salary is a turn-off, but at least three touchdowns and 300+ yards could make it worthwhile as the Saints are projected to comfortably handle Tampa Bay at home.

Running Backs

• 34% - Rashad Jennings, 7200, *Great Matchup*
• 28% - Le’Veon Bell, 8600, *Great Matchup*
• 20% - DeMarco Murray, 9000
• 10% - Khiry Robinson, 4900

Jennings is coming off the ho-hum Thursday Night Football effort last week, which was understandable as the Giants cruised to victory and Jennings saw a huge workload four days prior. The Steelers get the Jaguars, which is an automatic target opponent until further notice. Jennings and Bell are tough to not select this week considering their respective price points. Selecting Drew Brees at quarterback would likely require a low-cost pairing with Khiry Robinson here or a discount WR2/3 as a result.

Wide Receivers

• 22% - Antonio Brown, 9000, *Great Matchup*
• 15% - Steve Smith, 7200
• 13% - Kelvin Benjamin, 7100, *Great Matchup*
• 13% - Andrew Hawkins, 5300
• 12% - Keenan Allen, 7000, *Great Matchup*
• 10% - Victor Cruz, 7000
• 10% - Marques Colston, 5500, *Great Matchup*
• 10% - Victor Cruz, 7000
• 10% - Brian Quick, 6000, *Great Matchup*

Antonio Brown laps the pack this week (see Le'Veon Bell matchup rules about Jacksonville) in terms of ownership. I like Marques Colston to have his best game of the season to-date with his ideal matchup against Tampa Bay. With five highly-owned receivers with quality matchups for the week, it is not difficult to find a trio to fit within the salary cap.

Tight Ends

• 19% - Travis Kelce, 5300
• 14% - Jimmy Graham, 7900
• 13% - Larry Donnell, 6200

I do not like Travis Kelce's matchup against San Francisco much, but his ownership is appealing. With only two other tight ends above the 10% threshold, there is little risk in selecting Kelce and saving the 900-2600 in cap space over Graham and Donnell for other positional targets.

Kickers

• 22% - Shayne Graham, 4500
• 12% - Shaun Suisham, 4800, *Great Matchup
• 12% - Robbie Gould, 4600

All three are low-cost with Graham the easy choice in terms of ownership.

Defenses

• 12% - Detroit, 4800
• 12% - Seattle, 5500

Detroit gets a new quarterback (Kyle Orton) in their home dome. Unless an owner has 700 extra after other lineup decisions, Detroit is the chalk pick.

Most Common Lineup

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