This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system quite often. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Overall Philosophy
I combine many online projections, including those from Footballguys.com as a starting point to create a value board at each position. Then I analyze matchup data in terms of efficiency allowed, strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defense, and regression factors.
LAST WEEK'S LINEUP
- Mark Sanchez
- Jeremy Hill
- LeSean McCoy
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Mike Evans
- Larry Donnell
- Chandler Catanzaro
- Cardinals
QUARTERBACKS
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Three quarterbacks make the top value group this week: Shaun Hill, Robert Griffin III, and Josh McCown. Griffin has an ideal matchup against Tampa Bay, at home, in terms of horrific pass coverage and efficiency allowed (+16%) to opposing quarterbacks. McCown is a quality play in that same game. Washington is strong against the run, but cannot cover to save their lives. Plus they are +13% on a per-pass basis to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Look for McCown to have a high floor and work over the Washington secondary with his trio of super-sized targets. Shaun Hill is the value play of the week at just 5000. The volume should be there against Denver, but the Broncos are tough against quarterbacks (-14% efficiency) and there is the chance Hill gets yanked if he fails to perform, which can cripple a daily lineup by itself. That said, Hill's salary allows for a host of top players at other positions.
Alternates
The four remaining options this week include studs Aaron Rodgers (10100) and Andrew Luck (10100) in potential shootouts and mid-range options facing each other's horrible pass defenses in Matt Ryan (7700) and Cam Newton (7800). Ryan and Newton are also very intriguing to stack with one or more of their receiving options top-heavy tournaments.
RUNNING BACKS
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Ryan Mathews is back in the lineup and gets a soft (being kind) Raiders run defense in a likely comfortable home win. At just 6200, Mathews is a must-play on the level of Jeremy Hill and Mark Ingram in recent weeks. When a running back is likely to see 15+ touches with a positive game script and costs this little, they should reside in a ton of cash lineups. Matt Forte has one of the best efficiency matchups of the week for running backs against Minnesota (+17% per carry). His floor is comfortable and the Bears need a get-well game after two blowouts. Forte at 9300 is the premium-priced option of the week at running back. LeSean McCoy is the final top play of the week. The PFF matchup of Philadelphia's run-blocking against Green Bay's run defense is ideal for the Eagles to move the ball at will on the ground. At 7700, McCoy is a quality blend of matchup and salary flexibility at RB1 or RB2 depending on the rest of the roster.
Alternates
There are at least five other possible plays this week at the value threshold. Shane Vereen is intriguing in a likely shootout against the Colts, who are giving up +21% efficiency to opposing running backs on the ground. Add in Vereen's receiving acumen and his ceiling is high for 6500. LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster are pricey options that offer passable value. The touchdown watch is still on for LeVeon Bell and the Titans are a great matchup for opposing running backs by PFF and efficiency metrics.
WIDE RECEIVERS
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This section should just be dedicated to Kelvin Benjamin and Antonio Brown. At 6600, Benjamin is easy on the budget and sports one of the best receiver matchups of the week against the -36 PFF pass rated Falcons secondary that is +12% in efficiency allowed. Even at 9000, Antonio Brown has a high target floor and a Steelers offense that looks to get back on track from a surprising loss to Jets in Week 10.
Alternates
Four receivers are the prime alternates this week. Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson are 9100 and 9000 respectively, but have 30-point upside that few can touch any given week. Thomas has an ideal efficiency matchup (+21%) with the Rams and gets the dome turf in St.Louis, ideal for his screen and deep route speed game. Julio Jones and Roddy White have ideal matchups against Carolina. Jones is on the touchdown watch list like LeVeon Bell with his recent drought and White is a trendy 6800. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White make for an interesting triple stack in tournaments this week. Looking for a dirt-cheap WR3 with the rest of the lineup filled out? James Jones at 5300 has a relatively high floor and Oakland basically trails every week for quarters at a time. This week against the Chargers, in San Diego, coming off a blowout loss to Miami should be no different.
TIGHT ENDS
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Unlike most weeks, the two studs, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, are the best values of the week in the model. Gronkowski has an ideal matchup as the Colts are allowing +22% efficiency per target. Graham gets home game where Drew Brees and the offense is a warm blanket of comfort, but the Bengals are a neutral matchup for tight ends. With both at a similar price (8100, 7900), side with Gronkowski this week.
Alternates
Antonio Gates is the mid-priced option of the week. His floor and ceiling functions as a poor man's Gronkowski or Graham. At 6700, Gates may allow for an extra top receiver or quarterback upgrade if desired. The Raiders struggle in coverage and Gates is in the top tier of tight ends in terms of touchdown probability on a weekly basis. Larry Donnell and Jordan Reed are cheap plays at passable value, both at 5200. Tampa Bay is horrible in coverage and Jordan Reed is essentially a wide receiver down the middle of the field. Donnell has a much tougher matchup than the rest of the tight ends mentioned, making him a variation play in a lineup or two only.
KICKERS
Cheap kickers are a mainstay of this column's recommendations and this week offers four top value options. Nick Novak (4500), Shayne Graham (4700), Adam Vinatieri (4900), and Mason Crosby (4800) make it easy to mix-and-match across some lineup variations at the same price point. Stephen Gostkowski and Brandon McManus are two more options at non-optimal value.
DEFENSES
The Chargers will be mentioned a ton around the DFS water cooler this week, but they are my clear fourth choice in terms of value. The Dolphins offer the best combination of pass rush and facing a bad pass blocking offensive line (Buffalo), in addition to a projected low-scoring Thursday Night game and Fred Jackson looking like he will miss (or be very limited at a minimum) the game. Washington also is a top choice at home against Tampa Bay, a team that gets one-dimensional quickly and cannot protect the passer much (-38 PFF pass blocking rating). Finally, the Broncos are projected to blow out the Rams in St.Louis, Brian Quick is out, Shaun Hill is in, and the Broncos turn opposing offenses into one-dimensional and predictable sources for fantasy points. Those three will be in heavy rotation this week, all in the 5000-5300 range.
