Andre Ellington has been consistently annointed the workhorse running back of the Arizona Cardinals this offseason. Ellington was efficient in his limited role in 2013 and is projected as the offensive centerpiece. Last season, Ellington got off to a slow start with 28 carries in the first seven games before seeing at least nine carries each game over his final eight weeks. Even has Andre Ellington saw more work in the second half of the season, Rashard Mendenhall remained the primary ball-carrier, especially near the goal line. Without Mendenhall in 2014, the power back role will be up to Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer. What would happen if Andre Ellington were lost for a significant amount of time due to injury?
The Arizona offense would be far more predictable. Andre Ellington is a dual-threat running back, moreso than Stepfan Taylor and especially Jonathan Dwyer. The play-calling would shadow the formations and overall efficiency of the offense would decline. With less big-play capability in the backfield, safeties will sit on Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd on a more regular basis. A few more targets in their directions are offset by a more defensive attention. Here is the fantasy fall-out with Andre Ellington absent from the Cardinals offense:
Buy
RB Stepfan Taylor - Without Ellington available, Taylor is the most well-rounded running back on the Arizona depth chart. Taylor was a regular part of the passing game in college and is well-above average compared to his drafted peers of recent seasons. While he lacks the athleticism to be a true difference-maker on his touches, Taylor can be a replacement-level back on all three downs in the NFL.
Hold
WR Larry Fitzgerald - A few more targets can only help Fitzgerald rebound from a tough 2013 season. With the potential to move up a tier as a weekly start, Fitzgerald is a hold post-Ellington injury.
WR Michael Floyd - Like Fitzgerald, losing Ellington in the pecking order creates a few additional targets weekly for dispersal. Floyd is already viewed as a strong WR2 in fantasy terms and an additional target per game is enough to boost the third-year receiver into low-WR1 territory.
Sell
QB Carson Palmer - The Arizona passing game would lose a dependable check-down option in Ellington, causing Carson Palmer to hold the ball long on a per-dropback basis. With an already-questionable offensive line, the risk of injury and a few more interceptions rise.
Add
QB Logan Thomas - Without a strong run game and an already weak offensive line, Thomas is a better fit than Carson Palmer under center. With Cam Newton-like physical attributes, Thomas turns into a hot waiver wire name in quarterback premium formats and a watchlist player with traditional league settings.
RB Jonathan Dwyer - Stepfan Taylor would be the hot name in fantasy without Ellington in the picture. Jonathan Dwyer has been an underrated runner throughout his NFL career. Dwyer has more pure talent between the tackles and is the higher upside option, especially in non-PPR leagues than Taylor. Even as the backup to Taylor, Dwyer would have flex value with the upside for more with strong play.
WR John Brown - Without Ellington in the passing game, Brown is worth a speculative add with a few more three-receiver sets. View Brown as a bye week or injury replacement-level starting option with big play upside.
TE Rob Housler - Like with John Brown, the loss of Ellington creates opportunity across the passing game for another target to emerge. While Housler has been under-utilitized to-date in his career, his athleticism is apparent down the field. While a long-shot to move up into TE1 status, the loss of Ellington gets Housler into the boom-bust TE2 range.
Drop
TE Troy Niklas - A strong run game benefits the snap count of Niklas as the best blocking tight end on the Arizona depth chart. Without that benefit, Niklas moves off the radar even in tight end premium and two-tight end formats.