With August upon us, the buzz of football season is back. Average Draft Position (ADP) is humming along and fantasy football drafts are beginning with regularity. This series began a couple of seasons ago here at Footballguys.com, looking at historical trends for the season's breakout wide receivers.
What is a Breakout Wide Receiver?
For the purposes of this study, I am looking for a top-12 (WR1) fantasy scorer in points-per-game (PPG) and a receiver outproducing their positional ADP rank by at least 10 spots. For example, the ADP WR11 would need to finish as the No.1 overall receiver to qualify as a breakout success. For WR22 and later in ADP, they need to hit WR12 or better at season-end to qualify.
Here are the factors tracked over the years:
Positional ADP Rank: The sweet spot is WR20 to WR39, there have been few receivers beyond a preseason WR39 to pay-off with WR1 production. Miles Austin and Eddie Royal are two notable successful from well-down the preseason ADP ranks over the years.
NFL Draft Position: Wes Welker and Julian Edelman are two of the rare undrafted receivers to qualify as breakouts in the study. Draft position, like in overall career success, is paramount in this study annually. Day 2 or better picks have much better odds and Round 1 selection, to no surprise, are the best bests. From being a proxy for overall talent to having playing time advantages with their drafted team, draft position is a key factor.
Year in the NFL: The peak window to find breakout receivers is Year 2-6 in the league. This aligns with general age parameters as well - a receiver in their mid-20s is the best blend of athleticism and positional skill refinement.
A receiver's preseason quarterback ADP has not been a significant factor to the overall equation and thus not included.
2016 Wide Receivers
*ADP is from July 15 and forward, real drafts from myfantasyleague.com for 12-team leagues with PPR scoring*
Notes
Of the receivers in the top-20, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordy Nelson are the 'avoid' players of bunch looking for the 10+ positional boost by the end of the year.
On the flip side, Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins have both yet to fully mature their games, but are the best bets by historical trends.
The mid-rounds are rich with quality odds, giving reason to hit at least one running back in the early rounds. An owner hitting on a WR1 from the WR20+ zone of a draft boosts their corps without spending full market value on the acquired production.
Kelvin Benjamin at WR20 boasts the highest odds for 2016, along with DeVante Parker and Kevin White also at 25%. Benjamin missed 2015 after a promising rookie season. Cam Newton's progression as a passer adds to Benjamin's chances to hit top-10 numbers returning to action. Parker closed his rookie season strong and Ryan Tannehill enters a critical year to perform with a stocked set of weapons. Kevin White is a polarizing asset for 2016 after missing his rookie season, but possesses prototypical traits, was the No.7 overall pick in 2015, and is earmarked for quality targets as at least the No.2 option in Chicago.
Later in a draft, Tavon Austin is a name few are discussing yet sports a quality 20% probability. Jared Goff projects as a quarterback upgrade and the rest of the Rams passing weapons are little challenge to Austin coming off his best NFL season to-date. Phillip Dorsett and Breshad Perriman are upside shots in the WR5 zone of ADP as Round 1 draft picks and entering Year 2, a common breakout season for receivers.
