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It's hard to believe that we're just a week away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by late April. Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
…Matt Ryan (ATL) is a risky bet as your QB1
With Ryan managing 4,515 yards and 26 TDs last year in spite of injuries to Roddy White and Julio Jones, I figured Ryan was a safe bet to finish as a QB1 yet again in 2014. While Julio Jones’ return is a plus, I remain worried that Ryan could regress further because of Tony Gonzalez’ retirement. Gonzalez was the ultimate safety blanket and I don’t see anyone on the roster capable of stepping into the role.
…EJ Manuel (BUF) is not a sleeper
I thought more of Manuel entering 2013 than most, and was convinced that had he not gotten hurt, he would’ve been a viable fantasy QB2 with an upward trajectory entering 2014. My enthusiasm has been dashed by an offseason lacking in positive practice reports and the emergence of other passers with more definable upside.
…Cam Newton (CAR) is too risky to draft as a QB1
Newton has been a top 6 fantasy QB in each of three seasons, and I thought he would maintain that value as camps got underway. I don’t view the 2014 receiving corps as worse than his 2013 group, and saw no reason to buy into the negative outlook of some of my fellow staff members. However the last two weeks have changed my mind. Newton was already dealing with an injury and that was before he suffered a fractured rib – an injury that can be limiting and, at a minimum, very painful. Newton’s fantasy value is tied heavily into his running stats, and I see those taking a dip in 2014.
…Jay Cutler (CHI) does have QB1 upside, but I’m still not drafting him
My willingness to draft Cutler hasn’t changed since April, but I do acknowledge that my personal biases against him could look foolish IF he manages to stay on the field, for once. As others have noted, the Bears were a potent offense with Cutler and Josh McCown last year, and all of the key skill players return. Cutler may end up making his fantasy owners very happy – at least for a few weeks.
…Johnny Manziel (CLE) isn’t worth a late round pick
I’m not a believer in Johnny Football’s long-term NFL prospects. Yet, I initially thought public pressure would force Manziel into the Browns lineup and, by sheer virtue of his rushing stats, would equate to a viable fantasy QB2. I’ve backed off Manziel not only because he couldn’t beat out Brian Hoyer, but because the Browns WR corps is a desolate wasteland and Manziel’s inability to learn to slide is going to subject him to the same big-hit injury risk that derailed Robert Griffin III in the 2012 playoffs.
…Tony Romo (DAL) is set for a career season
The back surgery has spooked fantasy owners, but I’m comfortable with the risk given Romo’s participation in training camp from day one forward. Romo has already established himself as a fantasy QB1, and now Scott Linehan comes to town along with his propensity to throw 650 times per year.
…Matthew Stafford (DET) is not a top 5 quarterback
Stafford is the default #4 quarterback off the board, and I’m disavowing that view. More so than any young quarterback, Stafford’s elite numbers have been tied into volume. With a new offensive coordinator and an offensive line with plenty of questions, I’m not willing to pull the trigger on Stafford as an elite QB1, and you shouldn’t either.
…Ryan Fitzpatrick (HOU) is not going to keep the Texans ship afloat
No one viewed Ryan Fitzpatrick as a fantasy commodity, but many (myself included) thought he would be effective enough to maintain the fantasy value of Andre Johnson and Nuke Hopkins. I no longer believe that’s true as Fitzpatrick has been woeful throughout camp and the preseason.
…Blake Bortles (JAX) will start in 2014, sooner rather than later
The company line from Jacksonville was that Blake Bortles was going to sit on the bench all season as the Jaguars look to build toward the future. That’s not happening. He’s been poised, has a clear understanding of Jedd Fisch’s playbook, and offers the team a better chance to win games than Chad Henne.
…Eli Manning (NYG) should be avoided
Manning wasn’t on anyone’s short list of fantasy quarterbacks to target, but many of us were open to him fitting into the middle tier of serviceable backup quarterbacks particularly as Manning benefitted from Ben McAdoo’s new system. Unfortunately Manning looks like an awful fit in the West Coast offense, and the offensive line appears no better than last year’s decrepit unit.
…Geno Smith (NYJ) has the job, and legitimate fantasy upside
Smith’s numbers last year were discouraging enough that I bought into Michael Vick as the Jets Week One starter. Smith handled the competition well and took the #1 job at the start of training camp and never relinquished his hold. He appears to have much better command of Marty Mornhinweg’s system, and I now think he’s the odds on favorite to start all 16 games.
…Russell Wilson (SEA) has a chance to vault into the fantasy elite
For a guy that’s finished 11th and 9th in his first two seasons, few want to give Wilson credit (he currently has an ADP of QB14). My reluctance wasn’t predicated on Wilson’s skill set – he has elite skills both as a runner and passer – but rather Seattle’s conservative, run-based offense. My views have softened though as colleagues like Matt Waldman reminded me of the natural progression of offenses as quarterbacks are given more responsibility. Tom Brady was a ball control game manager in his first Super Bowl, but evolved into a top-tier passer. Ben Roethlisberger has a similar career arc. Even if Wilson gets 500-525 pass attempts, he can easily move into the top 5-8 at the position.
…Shaun Hill (STL) will be the starter in St. Louis (and you should care)
Sam Bradford tore his ACL again, opening the door for Shaun Hill. Hill isn’t a household name, but he actually has better career completion rate, TD rate and yards-per-attempt average than Bradford. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hill execute the Rams offense at a reasonably high level, and he should be on your short list of potential early season waiver pickups.
…Zach Mettenberger (TEN) will get playing time this year
Jake Locker doesn’t fit the profile of a Ken Whisenhunt quarterback. While Locker has mobility a la Ben Roethlisberger, he doesn’t have the mechanics or the resultant accuracy. If you think about Whisenhunt’s two biggest QB successes – Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers, they’re both cerebral pocket passers with uncanny accuracy. I fully expect Mettenberger to get playing time this year; the only question is how long is Locker’s leash.
…Robert Griffin III III (WAS) is not going to bounce back into the top 5
In April I was espousing a return to greatness for Griffin based on a combination of his health, the arrival of Jay Gruden (who made Andy Dalton relevant), and an improving receiving corps with the additions of DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts. Sadly Griffin hasn’t impressed onlookers throughout the preseason, and we’ve seen glimpses within games that he’s unwilling or unable to protect himself from big hits as a scrambler. I’m still open to Griffin being solid on a per game basis, but I can no longer advise you to draft him as your fantasy starter.