It's hard to believe that we're just a week away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by late April. Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
…Chandler Catanzaro (ARI) will be kicking for Arizona
Veteran Jay Feely was displaced by the strong-legged rookie from Clemson. Given Bruce Arians’ skilled offensive play-calling, Catanzaro projects as a fantasy worthy addition that you can have in the last round of your draft.
…Matt Prater (DEN) isn’t worth drafting
Prater was among the first kickers off the board for much of the preseason, but late-drafting fantasy owners need to avoid the Broncos veteran as he’s facing a 4-game suspension for an alcohol-related violation of the substance abuse policy. Brandon McManus will kick for Denver in the first month.
…Alex Henery (PHI) isn’t worth drafting
The Eagles kicker was in my top 10 in the early summer given the prolific nature of the Chip Kelly offense, yet Henery’s erratic leg and inability to consistently generate touchbacks were enough for the Eagles to entertain alternatives. Henery may yet win the job, but he’s on a short leash and best avoided on draft night.
…The Arizona (ARI) defense is overrated
After finishing 6th last year in standard leagues, the Cardinals defense is riskier than we all thought a few months ago. We knew Karlos Dansby was gone in free agency, but then Daryl Washington was suspended for the season and most recently Darnell Dockett tore his ACL. That’s too much talent off the field not to suffer once the regular season gets underway.
…The Saints (NO) defense could be a fantasy windfall
The Saints have a perception of being a porous defense, but New Orleans finished 4th in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. They were still a mediocre fantasy defense because the overall stout play wasn’t matched by a lot of turnovers or defensive scores. Yet the unit should be better in Rob Ryan’s second year and Jairus Byrd – a free agent coup – is a ball hawk. The Saints could vault into the fantasy elite without having to change much from last year’s approach.
…The 49ers (SF) defense isn’t an elite fantasy option
Many people, myself included, ranked the 49ers 2nd behind Seattle among fantasy defenses initially, but I’ve tempered my enthusiasm for the unit thanks to the continuing drama of Aldon Smith and injuries particularly to the likes of NaVorro Bowman, not to mention the loss of several key veteran free agents.