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The New Reality No.87: Rookie Class Recap

Examining rookie probabilities and historical odds for the 2017 rookie class

With NFL training camp and preseason action upon us, the rookie crop is set to hit the field in live action for the first time. Most dynasty leagues have already executed their start-up and rookie drafts, but some are ahead in the final weeks before the season. Plus existing owners of the new shiny rookies are excited to see their additions in action. Here are some final thoughts on the 2017 rookie class:

Know the Odds

Historically, few rookies have legitimate rookie season fantasy impact. The prudent approach is having a drafted rookie viewed as a farm system-type acquisition, an asset to season on a dynasty bench and grow into a key piece of a winning franchise in Year 2 or beyond. After digging into historical data, I looked at rookie probabilities of hitting a modest baseline of 50 yards (rushing for running backs, receiving for pass-catchers) or more in games during their rookie season. As one would expect, the odds plummet beyond Round 2 NFL Draft picks in Year 1. Here are some highlights from my study:

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