Strong takes are paramount to winning the long-term game of dynasty fantasy football. There is value in making incremental moves and accruing interest by 5-10% margins in trades and through waiver wire churning and flipping. However, using historical data and projected outlooks beyond the current season can lead to optimal trades and roster value windfalls over the long term. Here are my platform players to maximize their value for the rest of the season:
PLATFORM quarterbacks
Derek Carr
No quarterback in fantasy scoring ahead of Carr is younger than the 25-year-old Oakland signal-caller. Carr is locked in with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper for the foreseeable future and has improved each of his three seasons in the NFL. In 2016, Carr is on pace for a Tom Brady-like 34 touchdowns versus six interceptions. While other want the long-time established name of a Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, or Aaron Rodgers, I advocate downshifting by the market consensus for the up and coming quarterback plus additional capital. Carr is one of the few quarterbacks yet to string together multiple QB1 seasons I would leverage in a downshift trade.
Carson Wentz
Wentz is the even higher leverage quarterback downshift acquisition in the dynasty trade market. Wentz is running an NFL offense at a high level in his first half-season as a small school rookie. Wentz' acumen at the line of scrimmage and intermediate and downfield accuracy is that of a savvy veteran. Jordan Matthews is a quality secondary target currently functioning as a de facto No.1. Nelson Agholor still has hope to develop, but is looking like a low-level Round 1 wide receiver outcome. Dorial Green-Beckham is the wild card of the receiver corps with prototypical No.1 traits. In short, Wentz is succeeding without a full deck of weapons. Also, Darren Sproles has been the most consistent running back this season - another de facto type situation on the Eagles offensive depth charts. Wentz has situational upside beyond his first half-season as well as continuing with his quick study adjustments in-game and by week. Shifting from a top-line quarterback to Wentz will gain even more rookie pick or secondary piece leverage in a trade. Shoot for gaining at least a Round 1 rookie pick in a downshift trade. If upgrading, shoot for giving non-Round 1 rookie pick capital. For example, I was able to obtain Wentz earlier in the season for the equivalent of a 2017 2nd.
Mike Glennon
Glennon is my favorite Superflex or QB-premium stash into the offseason. Glennon was a smart decision-maker during his 19 NFL starts (29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) before Jameis Winston came to Tampa Bay. The wins did not follow as Tampa Bay was a poor franchise at the time. Doug Martin missed most of the season in Glennon's prime season of opportunity and Vincent Jackson was the lone pass target of note. Glennon's rookie contract is up after 2016 and a strong TD-INT ratio is one of the key identifiers to which quarterbacks see more chances to start in the NFL as their careers progress. Glennon will be one of the most attractive free agent quarterbacks in the 2017 offseason. While Glennon is nothing more than a Jameis Winston handcuff this season, in the offseason Glennon will become a sizeable uptick Superflex asset. I have seen Glennon on some QB-premium waiver wires even and, at a minimum, available as a quasi-throw-in to bigger dynasty trades. Here is a list of some similar quarterbacks over their first 20 games to Mike Glennon:
The group has combined to be long-lasting NFL commodities. At a minimum, I expect Glennon to be one of the best backups in the NFL with high odds to be starting games in 2017.
A.J. McCarron
Like Mike Glennon, McCarron has excelled in TD-INT ratio in the early part of his career. McCarron is blocked behind Andy Dalton, but a free agent after 2017. Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees are slated free agents, but beyond their unlikely scenery change, McCarron is in the next tier and likely available on the open market. McCarron will have more competition with Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Bradford in the mix than Mike Glennon's near free run of free agent domination at the position in 2017. Because McCarron is a year away from a full opportunity to become a team's starter, he is cheaper than Glennon in the trade market, outside of being owned by the Andy Dalton owner.
PLATFORM tight ends
Hunter Henry
Henry already has three top-5 finishes among the tight end position in his first half-season in the NFL. Through eight weeks, Henry is averaging 10 PPR PPG. As a rookie, only Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Jeremy Shockey had hit double-digits over the past 15 years in their first season. Rookie tight ends do not vault to fantasy-viable status this early in their careers. Henry had an elite production score entering the NFL with above-average size and athleticism scores. While my general recommendation in dynasty is to make low-cost bets on the next breakout option or churn through the waiver wire to find the next Dennis Pitta or C.J. Fiedorowicz for a run of production, Henry is the except to the rule. From the above list of similarly-productive rookie tight ends, all but Jordan Reed improved their fantasy output in Year 2 and all but Jeremy Shockey had a season of at least 15 PPG in their second or third season. A late 1st is appropriate for Henry in start-1 formats. Optimally, add Henry on to a bigger trade for closer to an early-or-mid 2nd equivalent. Outside of Rob Gronkowski and maybe Tyler Eifert, I would trade any tight end straight up for Henry and even add a mid-round rookie pick.
Clive Walford
Walford was one of my target players in Round 3 or beyond in 2015 rookie drafts. He showed flashes as a rookie, but the Year 2 progress is not happening. Historically, two situational aspects are most common in elite tight end producers - a top quarterback and the team lacking a true No.1 receiver. Walford has the quarterback component in Derek Carr. However, Oakland's offense funnels through two strong receivers in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Crabtree and Cooper are locked in with contracts beyond 2017. Walford also has failed to progress in weekly snap counts. Mychal Rivera and Lee Smith had seen far too many snaps to consider a breakout coming anytime soon for Walford. Walford was a lackluster metric prospect compared to his 68 overall draft position. He is a marginal athlete as well. I would take any of the top-3 2017 eligible tight ends over Walford straight up (O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, Bucky Hodges) and Walford is the perfect package-up player to upgrade rookie draft position in 2017. For contenders, use Walford as a trade piece to acquire a more production-centric tight end, even if on the older side, from a non-contender down the stretch.
Seth DeValve
DeValve is my favorite deep stash among tight ends. Gary Barnidge is entering his 32-year-old season in 2017 and has still performed well in just a single season over his long NFL career to-date. Barnidge also has a low dead cap figure. DeValve is already seeing snaps as the No.2/3 tight end in Cleveland as a small school Day 3 rookie, a promising sign. Metrically, DeValve is a strong athlete and collegiate producer. The combination is relatively rare in my tight end projection model. Only Hunter Henry and Beau Sandland shared DeValve's combination of positive scores in Athleticism and Production among the 2015 rookie class of tight ends. DeValve has similar traits to Aaron Hernandez in the model and Clay Harbor and L.J. Smith. DeValve is reserved for leagues of 35+ roster spots if a start-1TE and non-premium format for tight ends. However, DeValve is an optimal upside stash in TE-premium or especially start-2TE leagues.
