The annual influx of each succeeding wave of rookies will always be one of the most appealing dimensions of fantasy football, they are the life blood of dynasty leagues, a mystery to unravel and code to crack for redraft purposes, identifying the right ones before they breakout can confer huge advantages and they keep the hobby unceasingly renewed and ever fresh.
This expands and brings to the forefront a sub-section of the former Ear to the Ground column that ran for the past decade (and replaces it). It also inverts the previous order, with some material formerly covered first under the Team Reports section found later in abbreviated form in the section now called Select Veteran Notes. It will still conclude with a scouting profile (including coverage of both rookies and veterans).
While dynasty is the general purview of this column, the Rookie of the Year awards for Offense and Defense are by definition focused on the current season. What may be a seeming contradiction is resolved by the fact that rookies that excel and gain traction early tend to be on good footing towards a fast tracked, accelerated development for dynasty purposes (and of course players like Carlos Hyde that are destined to have their value surge beyond 2014 will also be tracked closely and receive coverage). The initial rankings reflect the accumulation and weight of the respective prospect’s scouting grades culminating in their first action as rookies, opportunity and expected role, as well as some historically-informed/driven heuristics and positional constraint observations highlighted below (on both offense and defense). As we get further into the season, actual production will increasingly be weighted more strongly, and rookie prospects will move up or down (and in some cases remain unchanged) accordingly. In addition to tracking stats on a weekly and running basis, the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year lists will be accompanied by ongoing updated individual commentary as development, progress and material changes in their respective opportunities and roles warrant it. This column will appear every other week during the 2014 season.
Rookie of the Year - Offense (past 25 years)
- 1989 - Barry Sanders, DET, RB
- 1990 - Emmitt Smith, DAL, RB
- 1991 - Leonard Russell, NE, RB
- 1992 - Carl Pickens, CIN, WR
- 1993 - Jerome Bettis, LA, RB
- 1994 - Marshall Faulk, IND, RB
- 1995 - Curtis Martin, NE, RB
- 1996 - Eddie George, HOU, RB
- 1997 - Warrick Dunn, TB, RB
- 1998 - Randy Moss, MIN, WR
- 1999 - Edgerrin James, IND, RB
- 2000 - Mike Anderson, DEN, RB
- 2001 - Anthony Thomas, CHI, RB
- 2002 - Clinton Portis, DEN, RB
- 2003 - Anquan Boldin, ARI, WR
- 2004 - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, QB
- 2005 - Cadillac Williams, TB, RB
- 2006 - Vince Young, TEN, QB
- 2007 - Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
- 2008 - Matt Ryan, ATL, QB
- 2009 - Percy Harvin, MIN, WR
- 2010 - Sam Bradford, STL, QB
- 2011 - Cam Newton, CAR, QB
- 2012 - Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
- 2013 - Eddie Lacy, GB, RB
Positional Breakdown
- QB - 6 (all in the last 10 years, signaling a trend of recently increased preparedness from the college level, trust, usage and/or desperation with quicker front office and coaching staff hiring and firing cycles, as well as the fact that there just are never enough good veteran QBs at any given time to cover all 32 teams - also, the same contemporary rule changes favoring offense in general and the passing game specifically, benefit not only vets, but the most talented, prepared, hard working and smartest rookies)
- RB - 15 (12 in the first 15 years, just 3 in the 10 since)
- WR - 4 (both rarer and more evenly distributed, in approximately half decade intervals)
- TE - 0 (enough said)
As seen from above, RBs dominated the Rookie of the Year award on offense in the first 15 years of the last quarter century, and largely QBs in the last decade. The skill position class of ‘14 is interesting in that neither QB or RB are the strongest positions, TEs don’t win, so it appears the Rookie of the Year is most likely to emerge from the WR ranks, which looks like the strongest and deepest position group on either side of the ball this year (with LB and CB).
Rookie of the Year - Offense (2014)
Player, Team, Position, Age, Pedigree, College, Height/Weight
1) Sammy Watkins, BUF, WR, 21, 1.4, Clemson (6'1", 210)
(3-31-0 receiving)
Watkins isn’t a Sleestak like Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin, but neither were Percy Harvin (2009) or Anquan Boldin (2003), the last two WRs to represent the position by winning Rookie of the Year. The fourth overall selection and consensus top skill position player in the 2014 draft comprises an interesting blend or combination of their respective skill sets and games, with some of the suddenness, instant acceleration and burst of Harvin in a bigger package, coupled with some of the physicality and hard-nosed, tackle breaking RAC ability of Boldin in a smaller frame (similar in size and physical stature to Boldin’s teammate Michael Crabtree, as well as Roddy White and Hakeem Nicks). Watkins is the only WR in NCAA history to make AP first team All-American as a true Freshman, and one of only four at any position, with the other three being historically good college/pro RBs Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson, elite company. Many scouts have stated he is the best WR prospect since the class of 2011, with A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Watkins isn’t as tall as Green, but he is bigger, faster and a more explosive open field runner (more like a smaller Jones, in that respect). The Bills blew up their 2015 draft to move up five spots from 1.9 to 1.4 and secure his services, and he is expected to eventually emerge as the focal point of the passing game, a cornerstone player to build the offense around. His development and that of second year QB E.J. Manuel are somewhat intertwined, and the polarizing and divisive signal caller got off to a promising start, with an upset on the road against the Bears. Watkins is a former track star (personal best sub-10.5 100 m.) that could be deployed on the increasingly popular jet sweep, and has the potential to augment his receiving numbers with production via the run game, like Harvin and luminously talented open field runner Cordarrelle Patterson. He enters the 2014 season sub-optimally with a rib injury, which tends to linger, that could test his toughness, determination and resolve. Watkins works hard at his craft, by all accounts football is important to him and he is serious about it, his pre-season effort, sense of urgency and commitment to preparation showed evidence of discipline, strong work ethic and professionalism, and he appears to have the requisite desire to improve found in great WRs.
2) Mike Evans, TB, WR, 21, 1.7, Texas A&M (6'5", 230)
(5-37-0 receiving)
Evans has positional upside as large as his California Condor-like wing span, he was a former prep hoops star relatively new to football, and has only played WR for a few seasons. He will present a physical mismatch, like Kelvin Benjamin, to virtually every CB in the NFL. In some ways, they are like less fast versions of Calvin Johnson, or smaller but faster versions of Jimmy Graham. His development should be facilitated by playing opposite Vincent Jackson, arguably the most talented veteran pass catcher any of his top rookie WR peers and counterparts from the class of ’14 have to work with. Jackson’s physical tools, skill set and game are like a doppleganger for Evans, which should further enable him to help the rookie learn the ropes at the next level as he gets acclimated to the NFL. There are some questions in the short term if free agent Josh McCown is the QB that played so well in relief of an injured Jay Cutler last season, or the one with a largely non-descript, underwhelming career before being exposed to QB guru Mark Trestman? If the latter, at least second year QB Mike Glennon showed some promise as a rookie.
3) Kelvin Benjamin, CAR, WR, 23, 1.28, Florida State (6'5", 240)
(6-92-1 receiving)
Benjamin has been one of the most impressive rookies in the pre-season, and stood out in what could be a historically good WR class. As noted above with Evans, he is basically the same size as Calvin Johnson (albeit not as much of a size/speed combo freak), and will be a physical mismatch for just about any conceivable, hapless CB tasked with stopping him. Pre-draft concerns that his TE-like frame would be lumbering, ponderous and just too big to maneuver and function as a WR at the next level have proved baseless and unfounded, and almost laughable in retrospect. Benjamin benefits from clearly one of the best opportunities among the top WR prospects, as he immediately ascended to the apex of a Carolina WR depth chart that had been decimated since last season. He is going to be featured from the jump, and is seemingly destined to be one of the most active and busiest rookie WRs. He is physically mature at 23 (like RB Terrance West and QB Derek Carr in the top 10), which may help him to better withstand the rigors of NFL-style physicality and punishment. The game doesn’t seem too big for him, and that may in part come from being used to the spotlight in a high profile program, in which he caught the clutch winning score in the National Championship game against Auburn.
4) Brandin Cooks, NO, WR, 20, 1.20, Oregon State (5'10", 190)
(7-77-1 receiving, 1-18-0 rushing)
Cooks is a little stick of dynamite. He has some Steve Smith in him, and his role in the offensive scheme and passing game will be expanded with the departure of Darren Sproles. He is a blur and the fastest player on the Rookie of the Year board from either side of the ball (4.33 40 at the combine). The Saints have been raving about him since training camp, and he was as good as advertised in week one. He would be higher (and may well move up in the NEAR future), but there are some talented prospects in front of him. This was probably one of the best fits or marriages of skill set to opportunity and scheme of any other player/team intersection at any position. His upside in the historically prolific, Sean Payton designed and Drew Brees executed, video game-like aerial attack is considerably higher than another young, talented, undersized speed merchant, T.Y. Hilton, which could surprisingly propel him as high as the teens in scoring as a rookie. Cooks is the youngest prospect on the Rookie of the Year board for either side of the ball (20). He reportedly has an extremely high football IQ, which bodes well for hitting the ground running and getting his career off to a fast start.
5) Terrance West, CLE, RB, 23, 3.30, Towson (5'10", 225)
(16-100-0 rushing)
West was the only rookie RB/WR/TE to crack triple digits in yards in a stellar debut. While he ascends to the starting role for perhaps the next several weeks to a month or more with the obligatory injury to Brittle Ben, he still has to stave off talented fellow rookie and uber-UFA Isaiah Crowell to keep it (who some scouts think is the most naturally talented and gifted pure runner in the class). West’s big opening day eased some level of competition concerns, coming from obscure Towson. Other scouts have likened him to Alfred Morris, who CLE OC Kyle Shanahan helped turn into a star in his previous stint in Washington. West is unusually light on his feet and nifty (some might say TOO nifty) for a big back, and has outstanding movement skills and change of direction ability for his size. Not as good a prospect as big back peers Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill, he does have the best opportunity currently (only starting rookie RB at the moment), but that could definitely be subject to change during the season. One attribute in West’s favor, he flashed good hands and receiving ability out of the backfield in college, giving him the potential to be a three down back in the future. He sees the field well, but like a lot of young RBs, could be more patient in letting his blocking unfold. At times, West is prone to trust his speed to go East/West more than his power to go North/South, which won’t work as well against the NFL-caliber speed, atheticism, instincts and experience of defenders at the next level. Whichever rookie RB emerges (and there could be room for both, if Tate continues to have trouble staying on the field), the Cleveland OL looks like a stout run blocking unit.
6) Marqise Lee, JAX, WR, 22, 2.7, USC (6'0", 192)
(6-62-0 receiving)
Lee was outshined in week one by popular UFA waiver wire pick up and fellow rookie Allen Hurns, but had a very credible box score. If not for an injury-plagued 2013 campaign, compounded by coaching and QB turnover, he looked like a potential future top 10 overall pick after being the top WR in the nation following the 2012 season. Not as big as Benjamin and Evans (or even Watkins), or as fast as Cooks and Watkins, he nevertheless flashed explosiveness and athleticism as a star long jumper. Once his knee was right at the end of the season, Lee reminded some scouts what the ruckus was about with a brilliant 2 TD game and dominant performance against Fresno State. Greg Jennings has been invoked as a comp player. While not on the level of Benjamin in Carolina, Jacksonville offers probably the best opportunity for Lee (and to a lesser extent, fellow second rounder Allen Robinson) relative to any other WR drafted outside the first round. Former top 5 overall pick Justin Blackmon is in an indefinite suspension limbo he is seemingly unable or unwilling to extricate himself from, and they don’t have much veteran WR talent beyond the oft-injured Cecil Shorts, who the Jaguars may want to prove he can stay healthy in a contract year before taking the plunge and committing to re-upping him. If Lee and Robinson are to be the future at WR in Jacksonville, it was a well conceived plan, because they have complementary physical tools, skill sets and games. It was fortunate for the Jaguars to be in position to draft two arguably first round talents that had fallen, after already having secured their future franchise QB with a top 3 overall pick, enabling them to grow up together. Blake Bortles played up to his pedigree and was the best rookie QB in the pre-season, he looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger at times, which has been a promising development for Lee and Robinson’s dynasty fortunes. Besides lacking prototypical size and speed, Lee had an alarming number of drops in 2013, but Jacksonville was satisfied that he played much better when healthy in 2012. It is also a bit of a concern that after questions about his durability and resiliency surfaced last season, he has already suffered several minor lower leg injuries, first in training camp, and now before just the second game of the season.
7) Carlos Hyde, SF, RB, 22, 2.25, Ohio State (6'0", 235)
(7-50-1 rushing)
Hyde would be higher on the list based purely on talent, but barring injury, the venerable, cyborg-like Frank Gore will likely block his path to a breakout season as a rookie (possibly for the last time in 2014). Despite being in the twilight of his career, Gore is still frisky enough to be an obstacle to a larger immediate role for the talented second rounder. Hyde, fellow big back Jeremy Hill and Bishop Sankey were the top three RBs drafted this year, and all taken within a four pick stretch. Hyde was passed up by both the Titans and Bengals because those organizations didn’t think he fit their system as well, but his skill set perfectly aligns and meshes with San Francisco’s smash mouth run game (another great marriage or intersection of player/team and one of the best in the draft at any position, with Cooks to New Orleans). He impressively broke Eddie George’s season yard per carry average record at Ohio State (at over 7 yards a pop). Given that Hyde flashed exceptional burst and explosiveness against the Cowboys that he has no business having as a bruising, 235 lbs. power back, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him carve out a larger role as the season progresses (in a 49ers backfield that has suffered serious attrition recently), and gradually work his way up the Rookie of the Year candidate board. Like West, Hyde benefits from a talented, physical run blocking OL. San Francisco looks to be improved on offense, and he could get the opportunity to pad his stats in end game clock grinding opportunities. With superior size and power to Gore, he could also be a fearsome dedicated goal line runner, and has the talent to seize the opportunity and capitalize if it presents itself.
8) Johnny Manziel, CLE, QB, 21, 1.22, Texas A&M (6'0", 210)
(The countdown towards Johnny Football's eagerly anticipated NFL debut has begun, and the clock is ticking)
Like fellow first round QBs Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater, Manziel begins his rookie season in clip board mode. Between the three, Manziel could have the best shot to see the field early, with Brian Hoyer being the least proven starter after Matt Cassell in Minnesota and Chad Henne in Jacksonville. His run skills could allow him to be used in special packages during the interim before he inexorably takes over the starting gig, likely in the next month or two. Needless to say, if Josh Gordon improbably returns to the roster in 2014, it will be a huge boon to Manziel’s development. The 2014 season will be a laboratory to test out how well his unusual improvisational skills and scrambling ability to keep plays alive with his feet will translate to the NFL, which at times fall on the continuum between Fran Tarkenton and the Three Stooges. If nothing else, it will be interesting and always entertaining to see how his rookie campaign unfolds once he hits the field.
9) Derek Carr, OAK, QB, 23, 2.4, Fresno State (6'3", 215)
(20/32-151-2 passing)
Like his brother, former Houston #1 overall pick David, Derek will somewhat unexpectedly also receive an immediate baptism by fire as a rookie. The 2 passing TDs in his initial start were encouraging, but the sub-5.0 Y/A average, not so much, though playing the Jets on the road was a tough assignment out of the gate. He struggled with pressure at times in college, but that could be said about a lot of young QBs.
10) Bishop Sankey, TEN, RB, 21, 2.22, Washington (5'10", 203)
(6-25-0)
Questions abound about how big a role he will carve out as a rookie between Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. He had a muted debut with 6 carries, but will likely see his role increase during the season as he gains the trust of the coaching staff. The 2014 draft was the second in a row with no RB in the first round (2013 was the first time in a half century that transpired).
Honorable Mention:
West's teammate Isaiah Crowell (Mike Anderson was the last UFA to win Rookie of the Year in 2000, and the only undrafted player to win on either side of the ball in the quarter century examined here) as well as Lee’s teammate Allen Hurns.
Standing on the Verge
- Quarterbacks
- Blake Bortles, JAX
- Teddy Bridgewater, MIN
- Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
- Logan Thomas, ARI
- Tom Savage, HOU
- Aaron Murray, KC
- Zach Mettenberger, TEN
- David Fales, CHI
- Running Backs
- Jeremy Hill, CIN
- Charles Sims, TB - Currently on IR (Designated to return)
- Tre Mason, STL
- Jerick McKinnon, CLE
- Dri Archer, PIT
- Devonta Freeman, ATL
- Andre Williams, NYG
- Ka'Deem Carey, CHI
- De'Anthony Thomas, KC
- James White, NE
- Lorenzo Taliafierro
- Lache Seastrunk, FA
- Wide Receivers
- Odell Beckham, NYG
- Jordan Matthews, PHI
- Paul Richardson, SEA
- Davante Adams, GB
- Cody Latimer, DEN
- Allen Robinson, JAX
- Jarvis Landry, MIA
- Josh Huff, PHI
- Donte Moncrief, IND
- John Brown, ARI
- Bruce Ellington, SF
- Martavis Bryant, PIT
- Kevin Norwood, SEA
- Tight Ends
- Eric Ebron, DET
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB
- Jace Amaro, NYJ
- Troy Niklas, ARI
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU
- Richard Rodgers, GB
- Crockett Gillmore, BAL
Defensive Rookie of the Year (past 25 years)
- 1989 - Derrick Thomas, KC, LB
- 1990 - Mark Carrier, CHI, S
- 1991 - Mike Croel, DEN, LB
- 1992 - Dale Carter, KC, CB
- 1993 - Dana Stubblefield, SF, DT
- 1994 - Tim Bowens, MIA, DT
- 1995 - Hugh Douglas, NYJ, DE
- 1996 - Simeon Rice, ARI, DE
- 1997 - Peter Boulware, BAL, LB
- 1998 - Charles Woodson, OAK, CB
- 1999 - Jevon Kearse, TEN, DE
- 2000 - Brian Urlacher, CHI, LB
- 2001 - Kendrell Bell, PIT, LB
- 2002 - Julius Peppers, CAR, DE
- 2003 - Terrell Suggs, BAL, LB
- 2004 - Jonathan Vilma, NYJ, LB
- 2005 - Shawne Merriman, SD, LB
- 2006 - DeMeco Ryans, HOU, LB
- 2007 - Patrick Willis, SF, LB
- 2008 - Jerod Mayo, NE, LB
- 2009 - Brian Cushing, HOU, LB
- 2010 - Ndamukong Suh, DET, DT
- 2011 - Von Miller, DEN, LB
- 2012 - Luke Kuechly, CAR, LB
- 2013 - Sheldon Richardson, NYJ, DE
Positional Breakdown
- DT - 3 (but Suh the only one in nearly two decades)
- DE - 5 (but Richardson the first one in over a decade)
- LB - 14 (11 in the nearly decade and a half since 2000)
- CB - 2 (none in over a decade and a half since Charles Woodson in 1998)
- S - 1 (nearly 25 years since Mark Carrier in 1990)
Once again, as seen from above, LB has dominated the Defensive Rookie of the Year award (unsurprising, it is a cliche that it is the most instinctive and RB-like position on defense), especially in the last nearly decade and a half. DL has been more rare (heavily dependent on physical maturation and technical development), though there were 6 in the first nearly decade and a half. The secondary has been rarer still (it is generally harder to make the number of splash plays or be as active in sheer volume from the boundary or back end of the defense, compared to the more centrally situated LB and up front DL), with only one in the over two decades since Dale Carter, and Charles Woodson was over a decade and a half ago. The defensive class of '14 is probably strongest at LB, especially since top pass rushers like Jadeveon Clowey, Anthony Barr and Dee Ford have been designated as LBs (for the same reason, DE is probably the weakest position). Also CB, though DT Aaron Donald is one of the top defensive prospects at any position. Historically, the Defensive Rookie of the Year is unlikely to come from the secondary, though safeties Calvin Pryor and Deone Buchanon would be among the best DB candidates, along with CB Justin Gilbert. In more recent history, DL is also unlikely (though Sheldon Richardson is the reigning award winner). That leaves LB as the most likely position, which aligns some of the more systemic reasons outlined above, with one of the strongest position groups in the class on either side of the ball.
Defensive Rookie of the Year (2014)
Player, Team, Position, Age, Pedigree, College, Height/Weight
1) Ryan Shazier, PIT, LB, 1.15, 22, Ohio State (6'1", 237)
(5 solo tackles and 1 assist)
Shazier is the first Steeler rookie defensive player to start on opening day in over a decade, since Kendrell Bell, which bodes well, as he won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2001. In a league chock full of freaks, he stands out as one of the freakiest at LB (or any position). After launching a stratospheric 42" vertical jump at the combine, Shazier followed that up at his pro day with a stupefying sub-4.4 40 at 235+ lbs. Opposing ball carriers, to paraphrase Funkadelic, don’t want to be freaking out with that kind of freak. The phrase, "shot out of a cannon" could have been coined with his closing burst in mind, and is preternaturally fast when his Terminator tracking and range finding modules are properly calibrated. Think Percy Harvin, if he were 2" taller, 50 lbs. heavier, retained his electric speed and had decided to play ILB instead of his mutated WRB position. When Shazier sees a play instinctively and pulls the trigger, he at times looks like the fastest player on the field on either side of the ball. His contrail-inducing speed has the unusual ability to make a slo-mo replay look like it is in real time. Once he figures out what he is doing at the next level, and comes to grips with the complexities of NFL defenses, he has the kind of unprecedented physical ability and athleticism for his position to perennially be among the league leaders in tackles. On the bonus plan, he has flashed the versatility in coverage to contribute at a high level in pass defense with reps and experience.
2) C.J. Mosley, BAL, LB, 22, 1.17, Alabama (6'2", 235)
(4 solo tackles and 2 assists)
Mosley is probably the most complete and well rounded ILB/MLB prospect since Luke Kuechly. There will never be another Ray Lewis, but he will be groomed to be the future QB of the defense playing beside Daryl Smith. Though not the athlete Shazier is, he has superior instincts, technical development and tackle shedding ability, as well as being more reliable in coverage. It will be no surprise if he is a LB1 sooner than later, with elite upside.
3) Aaron Donald, STL, DT, 23, 1.13, Pittsburgh (6'1", 285)
(4 solo tackles)
Donald is easily the consensus top DT and DL overall (now that Jadeveon Clowney has been reclassified as a LB) from the class of 2014, and has been compared by scouts to former "undersized" pass rushing interior DL such as Hall of Famers John Randle and Warren Sapp, as well as contemporary Pro Bowler Geno Atkins. He ran one of the fastest 40 times at his weight in combine history. There are several things that make Donald special. When you watch the ball snapped, he is almost always the first lineman moving on either side of the ball, sometimes exploding into the OL opposite him before they have even gotten out of their stance. Donald is also advanced beyond his years in the art of hand-to-hand combat needed to avoid letting OL get their big mitts on him to lock him up. He has a large array of hand moves in his repertoire and can mix them up and string them together. To top it off, his intensity and withering relentlessness make him an almost impossible blocking assignment for interior OL one on one. A rare DT with double digit sack potential.
4) Anthony Barr, MIN, LB, 22, 1.9, UCLA (6'5", 255)
(6 solo tackles and 1 assist)
Barr is another freak athlete from the good looking LB class of '14, with Clowney, Shazier and Mack. Each prospect has their own story. Barr has intriguing and immense positional upside (similar to Mike Evans and Eric Ebron on offense, who have only played their respective positions for several years dating back to high school). A former RB, he only switched to the defensive side of the ball a few seasons ago. Already heavily involved in new HC Mike Zimmer's defense, his rapid and accelerated development suggest a fast track to IDP stardom.
5) Khalil Mack, OAK, LB, 23, 1.5, Buffalo (6'3", 252)
(5 solo tackles and 1 assist)
Some scouts had level of competition concerns before he acted as a one man wrecking crew and manhandled Ohio State last year. They were also partly mitigated when he showed he belonged with the best blue chip LB talent from the upper tier FBS schools, more than holding his own with a dominant performance at the combine. Mack can do it all, run, hit, blitz and cover. He is an explosive and gifted playmaker, having broken or tied several NCAA records for FFs and TFL, and he is destined to be the future centerpiece of Oakland’s stop unit and a box score filler on Sundays. Given his pass rushing and coverage skills, it was puzzling and a bit of a head scratcher that he was pulled from nickel situations in the pre-season, but it can only be assumed that is a temporary situation. You don’t intentionally take a two down LB with a top 5 overall pick in the draft. With Aaron Donald, he is the oldest defender in the top 10 at 23 (three offensive prospects are also 23).
6) Calvin Pryor, NYJ, S, 22, 1.18, Louisville (5'11", 208)
(2 solo tackles and 1 assist)
Pryor was the top safety selected in the 2014 draft. Like Deone Buchanon, he is a barbaric, medieval, blow up hitter that strikes fear in opposing ball carriers and WRs coming across the middle alike. Quicker than fast, when he reads a play instinctively he has the range to cover ground in a hurry and can be a devastating weapon in run support. In a several game stretch last season, Pryor had more knock out hits than a UFC Pay Per View extravaganza. It is already abundantly clear HC Rex Ryan is a fan of the intimidation factor he brings to the table, and he is expected to be deployed to wreak maximum havoc on opposing offensive game plans. One concern is Pryor’s recklessness, and seemingly as little regard for punishing his own body as that of the ball carriers he is tackling (he already suffered a concussion in training camp, reportedly his first). It worked for legendary hitter Ronnie Lott (not counting the amputated finger tip), but led to a severely shortened career for Bob Sanders. While he can indisputably lower the boom in run support, he flashed coverage ability and ball skills at times. This kind of two way skill set versatility is increasingly prized and coveted to combat contemporary multiple NFL offenses.
7) Jadeveon Clowney, HOU, LB, 21, 1.1, South Carolina (6'6", 265)
(1 solo tackle)
Clowney would be higher (and maybe should be lower) if not for suffering a torn meniscus knee injury in the opening game, and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks following arthroscopic surgery. There isn't a lot that can be said about him that hasn't been said already. He was the #1 overall player as a prep, again in college and has the freakish athleticism and generational natural talent and pure pass rushing tools to potentially be one of the best ever, that is his upside (with the ceiling of a Gothic cathedral). Clowney has been a model citizen and hard worker in training camp and the pre-season, and pre-draft rumblings about his work ethic, motor and hustle may have been blown out of proportion. It can't hurt that he has influences on the field and behavioral models in the locker room from the likes of the intense J.J. Watt (YOU WANNA TAKE A NAP!!!) and Brian Cushing. In boosted scoring big play IDP leagues, when healthy, he should be a hot property (think Von Miller and Aldon Smith in 2012). Clowney fun fact - he ran his first 40 at the combine in an unofficial time of 4.47. At 266 lbs. Ouch! That is very likely the fastest combine 40 ever run for a player his size. Its safe to say there aren't a lot of humans walking the face of the Earth with Clowney's level of athleticism.
8) Christian Kirksey, CLE, LB, 22, 3.7, Iowa (6'2", 233)
(1 solo tackle and 1 sack)
The most important thing to convey about Kirksey in this installment of The Rookies is that he is expected to fill a 3-4 ILB role similar to the one HC Mike Pettine used to turn then-rookie Kiko Alonso into a star when he was the Bills DC in 2013. He looked very alert, instinctive and active, and like the game wasn’t too big for him in the pre-season, a nice combination for a rookie LB (and one shared by Alonso).
9) Deone Buchanon, ARI, S, 22, 1.27, Washington State (6'1", 210)
(4 solo tackles)
Buchanon isn't starting yet in base packages, but the eventuality is inevitable. Originally viewed as a second round prospect, he helped his stock by blowing up the combine, where he was the biggest, fastest and most athletic of the top 3 safety prospects. He has an unusual skill set in that he has led the Pac-12 in tackles (at all positions, not just among safeties), yet had the ball skills to amass 15 career pass thefts. He completes a secondary that could soon become one of the league's best, with talented young cornerstones Patrick Peterson and Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu. Like Calvin Pryor, he is an intimidating striker, and also may need to take it down a notch, from the Spinal Tap 11 violence and blunt force trauma dial.
10) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, GB, S, 21, 1.21, Alabama (6'1", 208)
(3 solo tackles, 2 assists and 1 sack)
As noted above, any safety faces long odds at being voted Defensive Rookie of the Year (or DB, period, for that matter), with Mark Carrier being the last in 1990, during the George Bush, Sr. administration. He is one of the four first round pedigree safeties from the class of '14 (also Jimmie Ward, though he is expected to be used as a nickel CB for as long as free agent former Colt Antoine Bethea remains the starter at SS). At this stage, he is more accomplished and established in coverage than a reliable open field tackler and last line of defense. With routine development, he promises to fill a gaping positional void that has existed since a neck injury prematurely ended the once brilliant career of Nick Collins.
Honorable Mention
- Bradley Roby
Standing on the Verge
- Defensive Tackles
- Dominique Easley, NE
- Timmy Jernigan, BAL
- Ego Ferguson, CHI
- Will Sutton, CHI
- Louis Nix, HOU
- Defensive Ends
- DeMarcus Lawrence, DAL - Currently on IR (Designated to Return)
- Ra'Shede Hageman, ATL
- Stephon Tuitt, PIT
- Kony Ealy, CAR
- Scott Crichton, MIN
- Kareem Martin, ARI
- Will Clark, CIN
- Linebackers
- Dee Ford, KC
- Marcus Smith, PHI
- Kyle Van Noy, DET - Currently on IR (Designated to return).
- Trent Murphy, WAS
- Jeremiah Attaochu, SD
- Preston Brown, BUF
- Chris Borland, SF
- Anthony Hitchens, DAL
- Carl Bradford, GB
- Khairi Fortt, NO
- Kevin Pierre-Louis, SEA
- Prince Shembo, ATL
- Telvin Smith, JAX
- Lamin Barrow, DEN
- Cornerbacks
- Justin Gilbert, CLE
- Kyle Fuller, CHI
- Darqueze Dennard, CIN
- Jason Verrett, SD
- Bradley Roby, DEN
- Stanley Jean-Baptiste, NO
- Phillip Gaines, KC
- E.J. Gaines, STL
- Safeties
- Jimmie Ward, SF
- Lamarcus Joyner, STL
- Dezmen Southward, ATL
- Terrence Brooks, BAL
- Brock Vereen - CHI
Select Veteran Notes
Offense
ATL - Devin Hester isn't one of the greatest return artists in league history for nothing. Few players in the NFL are as dangerous in space. Getting in space is the trick, from the WR position, but he now gets to work with the best QB in his career. Julio Jones and Roddy White will command a lot of attention, and Hester could help fill the void of targets left by the retirement of Tony Gonzalez.
CAR - Greg Olsen is positioned for a career year, as the Panthers only other quality receiving weapon besides rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He could also get more red zone looks and scoring opportunities than usual with Cam Newton banged up to start the season, and possibly less likely to be a battering ram and TD vulture around the stripe.
CIN - Jermaine Gresham is in line for more work with the dislocated elbow injury to fellow first round TE Tyler Eifert. He hasn't followed up on the potential of his first three years (2 X Pro Bowler, one of just three TEs in NFL history, along with Mike Ditka and Keith Jackson, to have 50+ receptions in their first three seasons), but is in a contract year and should be motivated to capitalize on the opportunity.
CLE - Andrew Hawkins has been impressing the Browns since training camp. The diminutive (5'7", 175) ex-Bengal signed a four year, $13.6 million contract in free agency which WR-stacked Cincinnati elected not to match. He got off to a strong start in the furious but ultimately aborted comeback against the Steelers, with 87 receiving yards on a personal best-matching 8 receptions. If Josh Gordon miraculously dodges a bullet and his indefinite suspension is rescinded, that could help clear out underneath routes for Hawkins and enable him to become a PPR machine.
MIA - Knowshon Moreno weathered the storm of criticism about his conditioning early in training camp, and has looked like the best RB on the roster since the end of pre-season. The former Bronco first rounder is running with great vision, instincts, elusiveness, power, contact balance, authority and purpose, and maybe a little angry, motivated to prove to the league his breakout 2013 season wasn’t merely the product of Peyton Manning. He led all RBs on opening week with 134 yards on 24 carries and 1 rushing TD in spearheading the Dolphins resurgent ground game to an upset over the Patriots, who stumbled in the second half. QB Ryan Tannehill was the most heavily sacked QB in the league last year, and Moreno is a multi-talented, complete RB with an extremely well rounded game, equally adept in pass protection or catching out of the backfield. He also has the added motivation of working under a modest one year, "prove it"-type contract. New OC Bill Lazor is transplanted from the Eagles and Chip Kelly's signature tempo, run-heavy system, which could soon make Moreno one of the busiest RBs in the NFL during the still nascent, embryonic 2014 season. Though a six year veteran, he is just 27.
MIN - Kyle Rudolph signed a five year extension just before the season started that could be worth up to $40 million, making him one of the highest paid TEs in the league. This was good news for those hoping his golden opportunity to work with TE-friendly OC Norv Turner would extend beyond a one and done situation with free agency potentially looming in 2015. He had a subdued first game against the reeling Rams with 2 receptions for 16 yards, but added a TD in what has become a specialty for him. Rudolph was the 2012 Pro Bowl MVP after the hulking (6'6", 260) former Notre Dame star had 9 TDs in his second season. He lost some weight in order to be better equipped to run Turner’s preferred vertical routes, and looked noticeably quicker off the line and out of his breaks in the pre-season, which bodes well for a potential career year. It will be difficult for defenses to key on him in an offense that also sports future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson, emerging X-factor Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings.
SEA - Percy Harvin is not exactly a WR or a RB, but a hybrid WRB that combines the best elements of both. Seattle didn’t part with a first round pick plus and pay him top 5 WR money to be an expensive decoy. His unique skill set and game have the potential to weaponize Russell Wilson and elevate the Seahawks efficient but austere, Spartan passing game to another level. Harvin is going to be in a race all season with Vikings phenom and fellow open field running prodigy Cordarrelle Patterson to break his 2011 record for rushing attempts and yards by a WR (both have a shot at 50 rushing attempts and 500+ yards). He claims to feel as good as he has since at least in college with National Champion Florida. Concerns that Harvin would have to subsume his special individual talent and skills within a previously conservative scheme appear unfounded, and HC Pete Carroll stated they are just getting started in discovering new ways to unleash his versatility. The last time he was healthy (mid-season in 2012), he was putting up top 3 WR numbers and having a borderline League MVP-type campaign. Despite barely playing for nearly two years, he is still only 26. It will be problematic for defenses to focus too much on Harvin, due to the formidable presence of Marshawn Lynch.
SF - Michael Crabtree got off to a slow start in 2014 in front of a home crowd in Dallas with just 2 receptions for 25 yards, but that could have been the result of a strained calf muscle that had him listed as questionable on the pre-game injury report. While there is new competition for targets in the form of 3 X 1,000 yard WR Stevie Johnson (2-33-0), the last time Crabtree was fully healthy in 2012, he had a special connection with QB Colin Kaepernick in the last eight games of the season, including the playoffs, and was one of the most productive WRs in the league during that stretch, putting up top 3-5 WR numbers. There were rumblings about a possible extension before the season which didn't materialize, so he has the added incentive of being in a contract year. Vernon Davis conversely got off to a blazing hot start (4-44-2) that may have caused a spike in his stock price with a pair of scores, the first of which was an outstanding individual effort by Kaepernick to narrowly avoid a sack and effortlessly finish by flicking the ball down the field for a largely uncontested 29 yard TD. He was only tied-14th with Coby Fleener in receptions (52) among TEs in 2013, but just one yard shy of tying Jason Witten for fifth in yards (851), and only Jimmy Graham’s 16 TDs topped his 13 scores. Julius Thomas was third with 12 TDs, and no other TE had more than 8 TDs. Last year Anquan Boldin was the only WR threat for much of the season, so a healthy Crabtree and the addition of Johnson could give Davis more freedom to roam opposing secondaries. He is a Calvin Johnson-like gold standard of athleticism at his position, and was the last top 10 pedigree TE in 2006, before Eric Ebron in 2014. Reportedly interested in an extension on a contract that still has two years remaining, the 2 X Pro Bowler is just 30, but will have to wait in line behind Crabtree (and Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati, also in a contract year). Including good looking rookie second round RB Carlos Hyde, the offense looks like it could be more potent than the past three iterations that advanced to consecutive NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl once. In arguably the league's strongest division and with a defense weakened by the absence of rehabbing Navorro Bowman and suspended Aldon Smith, the 49ers could be involved in more shootouts than in any previous time during the Kaepernick era.
STL - Waiting to discover how the RB depth chart would shake out between Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham was one of the bigger fantasy football stories and positional battles across the league leading up to the season. After Rams GM Les Snead noted they could go with a hot hand approach to the backfield led to rampant speculation that former UFA Cunningham may have supplanted Stacy, the incumbent maintained his hold on the starting gig (for now). Neither RB separated himself in the competition, Stacy had 43 yards on 11 carries, and Cunningham had 21 yards on 5 carries, with both having a long run of 7 yards. Complicating their job, an early injury to starting QB Shaun Hill had the Rams an injury to plan C Austin Davis away from using Pro Bowl punter Johnny Hekker as the emergency QB. The 34-6 evisceration at the hands of the Vikings was the least competitive contest on the opening slate of games, exposed some grave flaws in the Rams preparedness for the season and represented a failure and disappointment on many levels by the players, coaching staff and front office. The OL, which was touted by many as a team strength, has looked shaky in the run and pass game, and needs to find a way to get things cranked up in a hurry if the team is to have any hope of preventing 2014 from quickly spiraling out of control into a lost season and abject failure. Rediscovering their identity in the run game would be a start. One meager silver lining in all the wreckage and detritus of the opening game (adding insult to injury, DE Chris Long had an ankle injury that required surgery and he will be shelved for upwards of half the season) was further confirmation that the light may have come on for third year WR Brian Quick, who led the team with 7 receptions for 99 yards, despite QB Austin Davis being pressed into action. He is a physical specimen with similar size to Julio Jones, and appears to finally be figuring things out. If this development is borne out, Quick could be a key building block for the passing game going forward, whoever emerges at QB in the future. The eagerly anticipated debut of free agent WR Kenny Britt was anti-climactic and fizzled, but somewhat understandable given the circumstances of having to resort to scuffling at the QB position after multiple injuries. Suspended WR Stedman Bailey has three more untimely missed games to serve, but may run the best routes and have the best hands on the team, and he can't get back to the active roster soon enough. OC Brian Schottenheimer continues to show little imagination and creativity in attempting to find ways to involve 2013 top 10 overall pick Tavon Austin in the passing game and overall offense, after a glimmer of hope based on his semi-breakout against the Colts, Bears and Cardinals during the second half of his rookie season.
TEN - Jake Locker looked as poised in the pocket and composed out of it as at any previous time during his tenure in Tennessee, appears to have turned the corner from question mark to answer, and has the physical ability, arm and leg talent, leadership, work ethic and football smarts to unexpectedly rise from the ashes and emerge as a franchise QB. The arrival of new HC and QB guru Ken Whisenhunt could prove excellent timing for him in a contract year as he works diligently towards an extension (the Titans previously opted to not exercise an option to lock him into an extra year of his original contract). If Locker can stay healthy, he is well positioned for success with a strong OL and some outstanding receiving weapons, notably WRs Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter and TE Delanie Walker. Hunter in particular, has the talent, length and athleticism to become a star. He led the team with 60+ yards despite just 3 receptions, and Locker was targeting him in the red zone. Hunter gained a lot of good muscle weight since his rookie bean pole days, and wore it well during a promising pre-season performance that has extended into the regular season. He has ridiculous hops, elite body control, and is destined to become one of the most dangerous deep threats in the game if he continues to stay on track with his physical maturation and technical development, and fulfills his massive potential.
Defense
BUF - Nigel Bradham returns from his one game suspension with the Bills no worse for the wear from his absence, after an exciting comeback victory against the Bears. With 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Kiko Alonso shelved for the season, he is expected to play a big role as a three down LB for the defense this season.
CHI - Jon Bostic battled D.J. Williams for the starting MLB gig in the pre-season, and may be in the process of supplanting the former Bronco star. The Bears had a historically bad run defense in 2013, and if the second year player can take control of and secure the MIKE role, he could find himself in what John Norton likes to refer to as a target rich tackle environment. Lance Briggs looks like he may have lost a step or two. If 2014 ends up being the end of the line for his brilliant tenure in Chicago, Bostic's fellow class of '13 LB Khaseem Greene could join him in the starting lineup as soon as next year, and this situation is worth keeping close tabs on during the season.
CLE - The one season in Buffalo when Donte Whitner was allowed to play close to the LOS, he nearly cracked 100 solo tackles in 2010. In the past three seasons in San Francisco since then, he rarely broke a sweat in run support, backstopping the impregnable All-Pro ILB tandem of Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman. While Browns ILB Karlos Dansby is extremely talented in his own right, Whitner won't face competition as stiff for tackles as he did with the 49ers, and is expected to be used in a manner closer to reprising his more forward and aggressive role in run support his last season with the Bills. The 2 X Pro Bowler is still in his relative prime at 29, and Cleveland signed the local product and former Ohio State star to a four year contract worth up to $28 million. While not the biggest safety at 5’10”, 208 lbs., like his predecessor T.J. Ward, Whitner is instinctive, tenacious and packs a wallop in run support, and should be a tackle machine in the secondary for the Browns.
DAL - Rolando McClain could become a rare reclamation project success story. If his head and heart are truly back in the game, he could go from having been salvaged off the scrap heap to a legitimate Comeback Player of the Year candidate. McClain has 1.8 overall pedigree, rarified draft real estate for a MLB/ILB (for perspective, Brian Urlacher and Luke Kuechly both went off the board in their respective drafts at 1.9). He is as big as some DEs, and has a downhill, thumper demeanor. McClain is still finding his legs and regaining his game conditioning after a long absence away from the game. There should be no shortage of tackling opportunity in Dallas this season. Bruce Carter looked like a future star at ILB in 2012 before an injury shut him down prematurely, than in 2013 he inexplicably played his way out of a 4-3 WLB role that seemed tailor made for his elite athleticism. On the brink of failing to land a starting job in the pre-season, the Cowboys finally installed him at SLB, where he will have less coverage responsibility and potentially more opportunity to rush the passer, which he could have a knack for. Though with WLB Justin Durant injured, it is unclear if Carter will be shunted and ping ponged back and forth again, or allowed to become familiar with one position. He is in a contract year, which gives him extra motivation, and if things don't pan out with the Cowboys, he has the kind of athletic upside to potentially compel other teams to take a shot on him in 2015.
KC - Justin Houston (2 X Pro Bowler) was unstoppable and on a LB1 pace even in standard scoring leagues during the first 2/3 of the 2013 season, and injury was the only thing that could slow his assault on opposing QBs. He was hoping for a lucrative extension, but reported without incident and finds himself playing for a contract. Houston is highly unusual in the IDP sphere, in that most elite sack artist LBs don't make a lot of tackles in run support, and most elite tackling LBs in run support don't get a lot of sacks. You can count on one hand the number of players with the kind of rare talent to have a realistic shot at 50-60 solo tackles and 12-15 sacks, making him a potentially extremely valuable commodity, to the Chiefs and dynasty owners alike. Tamba Hali (4 X Pro Bowler, 2 X All-Pro) continues to play at a high level but turns 32 in 2015. Kansas City used their first round pick on blue chip pass rushing prospect Dee Ford, suggesting one of the incumbent OLB bookends could be replaced as soon as next season. Ford looks lost going in reverse when tasked with unaccustomed coverage assignments, but his get off and first step quickness as a pass rusher has elicited comparisons by teammates to the late Derrick Thomas and Von Miller. He ran an unofficial 4.53 at his Auburn Pro Day, which is almost unfair and insanely fast for a 250 lb. OLB pass rushing specialist. For perspective, that is as fast as Jadeveon Clowney (official time in his case) and top 10 overall WR Mike Evans. Earl Thomas is the undisputed top FS in the game (and overall safety), but Eric Berry can stake a claim to top SS in the NFL. At Tennessee in college, the extremely rare top 5 overall pedigree safety often looked like the best player on the field on either side of the ball, a playmaker and game changer when he had the ball in his hands.
NE - Jamie Collins gained a lot of attention when he broke or tied the combine record with a Calvin Johnson-esque 11'7" broad jump, in which he literally almost jumped beyond the measuring apparatus. With a positional odyssey that closely traces the career arc and trajectory of Karlos Dansby, he began his career as a safety, blew up in college to LB proportions and went on to play there both outside and inside. Collins even played DE, making him an ideal specimen for Bill Belichick’s morphing fronts and alignments. He is the football-equivalent of a five-tool player, and can rush the passer, fill strong inside in run support, has the range to make open field tackles on the perimeter, and the coverage ability and ball skills to be expected from a former safety.
NO - Kenny Vaccaro is another candidate for top SS in the game. He was making plays all over the field and filling up the box score in the pre-season. The addition in free agency of Pro Bowl FS Jairus Byrd should enable him to roam the field and be a three level disruptor (blitzing, tackling and covering), reminiscent of Troy Polamalu in his prime.
TEN - Zach Brown is a gifted athlete (4.4 at 250 lbs.) who saw his play drop last season after an injury. The 2012 second rounder was back in the good graces of the new Ken Whisenhunt regime and set to play ILB next to free agent ex-Bronco Wesley Woodyard, but another injury already has him sidelined for the duration of the 2014 season. Like a pump action shotgun, the Titans reloaded with another gifted athlete in 2013 third rounder Zaviar Gooden (mid-4.4 at 235 lbs.). Jason McCourty had a 2 INT game after a down season by his standards last year.
SF - Justin Smith is an elder statesman on the 49er DL, but he came through in a big way for a 3-4 DE with a 2 sack outburst, a much needed effort with the defense shorthanded, without Navorro Bowman or Aldon Smith. While he began to be rotated more often last season, that could keep him fresher during the season and prolong his career (turns 35 in 2014). Eric Reid is quietly emerging as one of the top safeties in the game. He has prototypical size and athleticism, strong coverage ability and ball skills, is a blow up hitter in the run game and made the Pro Bowl in an impressive rookie season. It should be the first of many.
SEA - Byron Maxwell is going to be targeted often by default. Although most Patriots opposing WRs dread taking an unwanted trip to the destination of Revis Island each week, it is like a tropical paradise or Disney resort compared to the Seahawks weekly opposing counterparts, staring at being locked up and having the key thrown away in Warden Sherman’s Super Max WR Prison (Aaron Rodgers didn’t attempt a single pass in his direction in the league’s opening night Thursday contest). Alcatraz and Devil’s Island were less secure and escape proof than Sherman's side of the Legion of Boom. He is becoming a Deion Sanders-caliber field tilter.
Scouting Profile (from the 2014 Pre-Season Value Play article)
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR20 ADP)
Through the first 11 games of a rookie year that was a tale of two seasons, Patterson had a modest, nondescript 1 combined rushing/receiving TD (he also had 2 kick return TDs). In an incendiary last five game scoring outburst, he had 6 combined rushing/receiving TDs, which prorates to mind boggling upside over a full season if he starts the 2014 season like he left off in 2013. Patterson has run a freakish sub-10.5 100 m. at 6'2", 220 lbs., and has similar open field moves to Tavon Austin, but is about 6" taller and 40 lbs. heavier. New OC Norv Turner conjured up one of the most productive seasons at his position in league history from raw WR Josh Gordon in 2013, and Patterson resembles his physical tools, skill set and game far more than Greg Jennings. Gordon was also a second year player, though not as raw a WR, but Patterson might be faster and is more elusive in the open field. The definition of an ascendant player, he is one of the best candidates in the WR20 range to jump up to the WR1 range, with the talent to emerge as the NFL’s next great, young WR.
Thanks for reading The Rookies, all questions and comments invited - magaw@footballguys.com
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