Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the ninth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
If you’ve emerged from the wilderness of the first eight weeks of the season with your championship challenge intact, pat yourself on the back. It’s been a trying trek to get this far, but you’re almost there.
On the flip side, if you’re still lost in the maze of injuries, suspensions and downright poor play from your IDP brethren, my advice is to stay the course. The waiver wire is your friend; use it often and use it wisely. Get a couple of trade offers in before the deadline in your leagues; it could be the very spark you need to produce an improbable playoff run.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 9.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Seattle pass rushers vs. Oakland
All the numbers dictate that the Raiders matchup should be avoided for pass rushers, but I find it hard to believe that the Seahawks defense – admittedly not the shutdown unit of a year ago – will find it difficult to breach the Oakland offensive line. If the game script goes to plan, the likes of Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and Brandon Mebane should get theirs, despite the Raiders giving up pressure on only 6.1% of dropbacks. Seattle have only registered 10 sacks on the season, a staggering statistic to consider, but if there is any game to get well it is this one.
Cincinnati pass rushers vs. Jacksonville
The Bengals should have a significant swagger about them coming off a huge divisional win last week – and Jacksonville won’t offer much resistance. Despite ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of pressure applied (11.4%), Cincinnati should be able to control this contest and bend the Jaguars to their will, affording the home team plenty of pass rushing opportunities. On the road, the Jaguars are surrendering pressure on 19.9% of dropbacks and have been a veritable feast of fantasy points for opposing defenses thus far. Stick with the formula that works here.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Houston pass rushers vs. Philadelphia
The Texans rank second in terms of pressure applied on opposing quarterbacks at 17.5% -- owing in large part to a certain Mr Watt -- but they face a tall task this week at home. The visiting Eagles, despite their inordinate number of passing attempts and offensive snaps (71.1 per game), have protected Nick Foles very well, giving up pressure on only 7.1% of dropbacks. It is worth noting, however, that Philadelphia’s pressure allowed rockets up to 11.9% on the road. Nevertheless, the smart move here is to expect the usual up-tempo game plan from the Eagles and a smart game plan to slow down the rush of Watt.
Sack Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
2014 NFL Average | 13% | 2.2 | 4.85 | 37.4 | 13% | 2.2 | 4.85 | 37.4 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 7.5% | 1 | 3.1 | 42 | 14.9% | 1.6 | 5.6 | 37.4 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 7.2% | 0.9 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 15% | 2.1 | 6.1 | 40.8 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 13.6% | 2.1 | 5.4 | 39.5 | 8.7% | 1.1 | 3.1 | 36 |
BUFFALO Bills | 15.3% | 3.5 | 6.3 | 40.8 | 18.6% | 2.9 | 6.9 | 37 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 11.9% | 2 | 4.4 | 36.9 | 13.2% | 2.3 | 5 | 37.9 |
CHICAGO Bears | 11.8% | 2.5 | 4.3 | 36.1 | 11% | 2.5 | 4.4 | 39.9 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.4% | 1.6 | 5 | 44 | 8.1% | 1.1 | 2.7 | 33.4 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 11% | 2.1 | 4.4 | 40.3 | 12.2% | 1.4 | 4 | 32.9 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 14.5% | 1.3 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 10.9% | 2.1 | 3.6 | 33.1 |
DENVER Broncos | 15.5% | 3.3 | 7 | 45.3 | 7.7% | 1.1 | 2.9 | 37.3 |
DETROIT Lions | 18.5% | 2.9 | 7 | 37.8 | 13.6% | 3 | 5.5 | 40.4 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 16% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 12.9% | 2.6 | 4.5 | 34.9 |
HOUSTON Texans | 17.5% | 1.9 | 7.1 | 40.8 | 20.1% | 2 | 6.1 | 30.5 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.3% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 37.6 | 12.6% | 1.6 | 5.8 | 45.5 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.7% | 3.1 | 5.5 | 40.3 | 18.2% | 4.1 | 7.3 | 39.9 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 16.7% | 3.4 | 5.7 | 34.1 | 11.6% | 2.6 | 3.9 | 33.1 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 11.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 40.3 | 13.6% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 37.7 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.8% | 3.1 | 5.6 | 35.5 | 19.8% | 3.5 | 7.4 | 37.3 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 12.6% | 2.6 | 4.5 | 35.6 | 10.8% | 1.9 | 4.1 | 38.3 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 11.6% | 1.9 | 4.4 | 38.3 | 9.6% | 1.1 | 4.1 | 43.3 |
NEW YORK Giants | 13.9% | 1.9 | 4.9 | 34.9 | 10.2% | 2.1 | 3.6 | 35 |
NEW YORK Jets | 17.2% | 3 | 6.1 | 35.6 | 16.1% | 2.8 | 6.3 | 38.9 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 10.6% | 1 | 3.3 | 31 | 6.1% | 1.1 | 2.4 | 39.7 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 10.6% | 2.7 | 4.4 | 41.9 | 7.8% | 1 | 3.4 | 43.7 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 12.6% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 35.8 | 9.9% | 2.5 | 4 | 40.5 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 9.6% | 1.9 | 3.4 | 35.3 | 12.3% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 35.6 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 9.7% | 1.7 | 3.6 | 37 | 13.1% | 2.7 | 4.7 | 35.9 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 12.9% | 1.4 | 4.4 | 34.3 | 13% | 2.1 | 4.1 | 31.9 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 9.5% | 0.9 | 2.9 | 30.1 | 17.2% | 3.3 | 6.6 | 38.1 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 10.4% | 1.4 | 4 | 38.6 | 19% | 2.7 | 7 | 36.9 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 11.7% | 2.9 | 4.4 | 37.5 | 14.9% | 2.5 | 5.1 | 34.5 |
WASHINGTON | 16.1% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 34.9 | 12.2% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 37.9 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
New York Giants defenders vs. Indianapolis
The prolific Colts offense hit a speed bump in Pittsburgh last week, producing their lowest tackle opportunity allowed output of the season (38). However, Chuck Pagano’s team still ranks first in that same statistic and should find plenty of success against a Giants team coming off a bye that is still fighting to discover its identity. Leading tacklers Jacquian Williams, Prince Amukamara and Quintin Demps should be locks for productive outings in what should be an intriguing clash.
Arizona defenders at Dallas
The common denominator in both Dallas losses this season has been rushing attempts, or lack thereof. In Week 1’s loss to San Francisco, Dallas ran the football only 23 times; in last Monday’s loss to Washington, 25 times. Otherwise the team has stuck to its formula. The smart play is to assume Dallas revert back to what works, especially with Tony Romo’s injury. Arizona will mug the A gaps with their linebackers and give Dallas’ line all it can handle, but despite the Cardinals’ success in stopping the run, Dallas can’t afford to get away from it. The ‘Boys have allowed 55.8 tackle opportunities per game this season – expect that trend to continue in a ‘show me’ game at Jerry World.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Cleveland defenders vs. Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is circling the drain and to this point rank as one of the worst tackle matchups in the league (44.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game). Cleveland have struggled to stop the run, but can the Bucs really be trusted? I doubt it. Despite the Browns’ above average 55 tackle opportunities per game, it is hard to trust the reeling Bucs to keep this one in the mixer.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
2014 NFL Average | 51.3 | 26.8 | 37.4 | 64.2 | 52.3% | 51.3 | 26.8 | 37.4 | 64.2 | 52.3% |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 50.6 | 23.4 | 42 | 65.4 | 46.3% | 47.6 | 26.1 | 37.4 | 63.6 | 55% |
ATLANTA Falcons | 54.4 | 32.1 | 34.9 | 67 | 59.1% | 49.5 | 22.3 | 40.8 | 63 | 44.9% |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.9 | 24.8 | 39.5 | 64.3 | 48.6% | 51.6 | 28.9 | 36 | 64.9 | 55.9% |
BUFFALO Bills | 52.9 | 25.9 | 40.8 | 66.6 | 48.9% | 50.1 | 25.9 | 37 | 62.9 | 51.6% |
CAROLINA Panthers | 52.1 | 26 | 36.9 | 62.9 | 49.9% | 50.6 | 26.3 | 37.9 | 64.1 | 51.9% |
CHICAGO Bears | 51.3 | 26.1 | 36.1 | 62.3 | 51% | 50.9 | 23.5 | 39.9 | 63.4 | 46.2% |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 55.7 | 29.6 | 44 | 73.6 | 53.1% | 50.4 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 61.6 | 55.8% |
CLEVELAND Browns | 55 | 29.6 | 40.3 | 69.9 | 53.8% | 50.7 | 31.3 | 32.9 | 64.1 | 61.7% |
DALLAS Cowboys | 46.8 | 24 | 33.6 | 57.6 | 51.3% | 55.8 | 32.5 | 33.1 | 65.6 | 58.3% |
DENVER Broncos | 50 | 21.3 | 45.3 | 66.6 | 42.6% | 53 | 27 | 37.3 | 64.3 | 50.9% |
DETROIT Lions | 47.4 | 22.8 | 37.8 | 60.5 | 48% | 51.9 | 26 | 40.4 | 66.4 | 50.1% |
GREEN BAY Packers | 55.8 | 32.1 | 36.6 | 68.8 | 57.6% | 48.5 | 24.3 | 34.9 | 59.1 | 50% |
HOUSTON Texans | 53.5 | 26.4 | 40.8 | 67.1 | 49.3% | 51.8 | 31.6 | 30.5 | 62.1 | 61.1% |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 46.3 | 22.4 | 37.6 | 60 | 48.4% | 58.9 | 28.9 | 45.5 | 74.4 | 49% |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.3 | 28.6 | 40.3 | 68.9 | 51.8% | 48.8 | 22.9 | 39.9 | 62.8 | 46.9% |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 46 | 24 | 34.1 | 58.1 | 52.2% | 54.4 | 31.4 | 33.1 | 64.6 | 57.7% |
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.3 | 27.1 | 40.3 | 67.4 | 51.9% | 52.1 | 27.7 | 37.7 | 65.4 | 53.2% |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.3 | 26.4 | 35.5 | 61.9 | 51.5% | 49.4 | 26.4 | 37.3 | 63.6 | 53.4% |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 51.1 | 28.4 | 35.6 | 64 | 55.5% | 53.8 | 28.1 | 38.3 | 66.4 | 52.3% |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 51.1 | 25.1 | 38.3 | 63.4 | 49.2% | 56.3 | 25.9 | 43.3 | 69.1 | 45.9% |
NEW YORK Giants | 49.7 | 27.4 | 34.9 | 62.3 | 55.2% | 54 | 30.4 | 35 | 65.4 | 56.3% |
NEW YORK Jets | 49.1 | 25.6 | 35.6 | 61.3 | 52.2% | 51.9 | 29.5 | 38.9 | 68.4 | 56.9% |
OAKLAND Raiders | 56.6 | 34.6 | 31 | 65.6 | 61.1% | 43.6 | 19 | 39.7 | 58.7 | 43.6% |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 54.1 | 29 | 41.9 | 70.9 | 53.6% | 53.7 | 27.4 | 43.7 | 71.1 | 51.1% |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 46 | 23.6 | 35.8 | 59.4 | 51.4% | 56.6 | 28 | 40.5 | 68.5 | 49.4% |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 47.3 | 24.5 | 35.3 | 59.8 | 51.9% | 52.4 | 27.6 | 35.6 | 63.3 | 52.7% |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 43.9 | 21.4 | 37 | 58.4 | 48.9% | 53.6 | 30 | 35.9 | 65.9 | 56% |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 50.6 | 27.1 | 34.3 | 61.4 | 53.7% | 49.6 | 28 | 31.9 | 59.9 | 56.5% |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 52.4 | 31 | 30.1 | 61.1 | 59.1% | 50.9 | 24.9 | 38.1 | 63 | 48.9% |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 57.3 | 30.1 | 38.6 | 68.7 | 52.6% | 44.1 | 21 | 36.9 | 57.9 | 47.6% |
TENNESSEE Titans | 57.1 | 32.1 | 37.5 | 69.6 | 56.2% | 44.6 | 23 | 34.5 | 57.5 | 51.5% |
WASHINGTON | 50.1 | 26.6 | 34.9 | 61.5 | 53.1% | 51.4 | 25.1 | 37.9 | 63 | 48.9% |
Best of luck with Week 9 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.