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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the seventh edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
“You think you know, but you don’t know – and you never will” – Jim Mora Sr.
Jim Mora’s diatribe continues to echo through the years in the unpredictable and ever-changing National Football League. Last week’s clashes threw up their fair share of shocks as more defensive players went down to injury while others asserted their claims.
Amid all this chaos, fantasy owners must find a happy medium to decipher the puzzle this league throws up for us each and every week. It is time to make your move if you are struggling and push home your advantage if you are winning. No time to waste.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 7.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
New England front seven vs. New York Jets
The Jets’ tailspin into the abyss continues. This team was supposed to be able to hang their hat on their stifling defense and punishing offensive line, but neither unit has met expectations to mask the deficiencies of other areas. On a short week and with questions surrounding head coach and quarterback, the last team the Jets would have wanted to face is their bitter rival New England, in Foxborough no less. New England is not the most fearsome pass rushing unit (11.9% pressure applied per dropback) but the Jets have given up pressure on a consistent basis (16.4% of dropbacks) with 2.5 sacks allowed per game. This one feels like a massacre in the making; if the game script goes according to plan, New England’s pass rushers should have ample opportunity to pin their ears back.
Buffalo front seven vs. Minnesota
The Bills defense has been picking up the slack for an average offense this season. Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams in particular have been dominant up front, recording eight sacks between them. The Vikings, after a brief glimmer of hope after Teddy Bridgewater’s display against Atlanta, have come back to earth in a major way and seem to have no cohesiveness on their offensive line. They are surrendering pressure on 20.5% of dropbacks and 3.7 sacks per game while the Bills are racking up 3.2 sacks per game. The Bills won’t run away with this one, but expect a heavy rush on Bridgewater and perhaps some rookie mistakes to come to the fore.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Arizona front seven at Oakland
Despite being winless, the Raiders have cobbled together a respectable unit up front to protect Derek Carr – or so say the statistics. Oakland has surrendered pressure on only 6.3% of dropbacks. With Carr breathing life into the offense after injury last week, there is plenty of room for optimism. Arizona’s Todd Bowles has routinely brought pressure this year, allowing a deep and talented secondary to pick up receivers and backs man to man while his defensive front seven rushes the passer. The Cardinals, however, have failed to get home more often than not; they are applying pressure on only 6.4% of dropbacks. Steer clear of your Cardinals this week in a match-up the Raiders could pull out.
Sack Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 12.9% | 2.12 | 4.83 | 37.5 | 12.9% | 2.12 | 4.83 | 37.5 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 6.4% | 1.2 | 2.6 | 40.6 | 18.1% | 2 | 6.8 | 37.6 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 7.7% | 1.2 | 2.7 | 34.5 | 14.1% | 1.7 | 5.8 | 41.3 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 13.1% | 1.7 | 5.2 | 39.5 | 7.9% | 1.2 | 3 | 37.8 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 14.6% | 3.2 | 6 | 41.2 | 17.7% | 2.2 | 6.7 | 37.7 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 12.7% | 2.2 | 5 | 39.3 | 13.1% | 2 | 5.2 | 39.3 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 12.6% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 35.7 | 11.8% | 2.5 | 4.8 | 40.8 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.4% | 1.6 | 5.2 | 45.8 | 4.3% | 0.4 | 1.4 | 32.4 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 11.6% | 2 | 4.4 | 38 | 12.1% | 1.2 | 3.8 | 31.4 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 14.8% | 1.2 | 5 | 33.8 | 10% | 1.7 | 3.3 | 33.5 |
| DENVER Broncos | 15.3% | 3 | 6.8 | 44.4 | 8.1% | 1.2 | 3.2 | 39.4 |
| DETROIT Lions | 19.8% | 3.3 | 7.5 | 37.8 | 15.9% | 3.5 | 6.2 | 38.8 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 18.4% | 2.2 | 6.7 | 36.2 | 13.4% | 2.5 | 4.7 | 34.8 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 19.1% | 1.7 | 7.8 | 41 | 21.1% | 1.7 | 6 | 28.5 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.7% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 35 | 11.7% | 1.5 | 5.3 | 45.5 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 12.2% | 3.2 | 5 | 41 | 19% | 4.5 | 7.8 | 41.3 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 34.8 | 11.7% | 2.6 | 4 | 34.2 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 11.6% | 2.8 | 4.8 | 41.4 | 11.7% | 2 | 4.6 | 39.2 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 14.4% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 33.7 | 20.5% | 3.7 | 7.7 | 37.3 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 11.9% | 2.5 | 4.2 | 35 | 10.9% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 38.2 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 10.5% | 1.2 | 3.8 | 36.2 | 9% | 1 | 4 | 44.6 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 13.7% | 1.8 | 5 | 36.5 | 10.4% | 2.5 | 3.7 | 35.3 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 15.9% | 3.2 | 6 | 37.7 | 16.4% | 2.5 | 6.2 | 37.7 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 12.2% | 1 | 3.8 | 31.2 | 6.3% | 0.8 | 2.4 | 38 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 11.2% | 3.2 | 4.7 | 41.8 | 6.6% | 1.2 | 2.7 | 40.7 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.2% | 1.5 | 3.8 | 34.3 | 10.9% | 2.8 | 4.3 | 39.7 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 9.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 36 | 12.4% | 1.5 | 4.3 | 34.8 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 9.6% | 1.7 | 3.7 | 38.3 | 12.5% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 33.3 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 11.9% | 1.4 | 4.6 | 38.8 | 12.6% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 30.2 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 8.4% | 0.2 | 2.4 | 28.6 | 13.6% | 3.2 | 5.8 | 42.8 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 10.1% | 1.5 | 3.8 | 37.8 | 18.7% | 2.3 | 7 | 37.5 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 10.9% | 2.5 | 4.2 | 38.2 | 16% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 34.3 |
| WASHINGTON | 17.4% | 2.5 | 6.2 | 35.5 | 12.1% | 1.8 | 4.8 | 39.8 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati defenders at Indianapolis
The juggernaut that is the Colts offense is the gift that keeps on giving for IDP purposes; through seven weeks, they are allowing the most tackle opportunities in the league, a gaudy 61.7 per game. For a little perspective, the average is 51.4. The Bengals defense showed some chinks in their armour last week against Cam Newton and the Panthers. Expect similar issues this week with a red-hot Andrew Luck at the helm. As it is, the Bengals defense averages 56.6 tackle opportunities per game. Don’t overthink this one – get your Bengals in your lineup.
Kansas City defenders at San Diego
Ranking fourth in tackle opportunities allowed, San Diego’s offense has been a steady and reliable force this season. Their ground game has been given a boost by the play of rookie Branden Oliver, while Philip Rivers is enjoying a career year behind a patchwork offensive line. A rested Chiefs unit will attempt to halt that momentum. Although the Chiefs average only 49.2 tackle opportunities per game, owing in large part to their improved defensive efforts, the Chargers should be able to produce their usual tackle opportunity output to give the likes of Josh Mauga, Husain Abdullah, Ron Parker and James Michael-Johnson huge opportunity for points.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Washington defenders vs. Tennessee
The Titans have been a poor tackle matchup all season, averaging only 45.8 tackle opportunities allowed per game. The situation at quarterback hasn’t helped, but this team, like many others, just seem to be in a rut. Despite the Washington stat crew being one of the more generous in terms of tackle numbers, the smart play here is to sit your Redskins defenders in a game that, all going to plan, the home team should comfortably win.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51.5 | 27 | 37.5 | 64.5 | 52.5% | 51.5 | 27 | 37.5 | 64.5 | 52.5% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 51.2 | 23.8 | 40.6 | 64.4 | 46.5% | 46 | 24.6 | 37.6 | 62.2 | 53.5% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 55.8 | 32.8 | 34.5 | 67.3 | 58.8% | 49.7 | 22.7 | 41.3 | 64 | 45.6% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 50 | 24.7 | 39.5 | 64.2 | 49.3% | 52.7 | 28.2 | 37.8 | 66 | 53.5% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 52.8 | 24.2 | 41.2 | 65.3 | 45.7% | 49.8 | 26 | 37.7 | 63.7 | 52.2% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 53.2 | 25.3 | 39.3 | 64.7 | 47.6% | 51.5 | 25.7 | 39.3 | 65 | 49.8% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 47 | 24 | 35.7 | 59.7 | 51.1% | 53.2 | 24.5 | 40.8 | 65.3 | 46.1% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 56.6 | 29.4 | 45.8 | 75.2 | 51.9% | 52.4 | 30.2 | 32.4 | 62.6 | 57.6% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.4 | 30 | 38 | 68 | 55.1% | 52.2 | 32.8 | 31.4 | 64.2 | 62.8% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 44.7 | 22.5 | 33.8 | 56.3 | 50.4% | 56.8 | 33.3 | 33.5 | 66.8 | 58.7% |
| DENVER Broncos | 50.4 | 23.2 | 44.4 | 67.6 | 46% | 53 | 26.4 | 39.4 | 65.8 | 49.8% |
| DETROIT Lions | 46.8 | 22.5 | 37.8 | 60.3 | 48% | 52.3 | 26.8 | 38.8 | 65.7 | 51.3% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 56 | 33.5 | 36.2 | 69.7 | 59.8% | 47.5 | 24.2 | 34.8 | 59 | 50.9% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 55.7 | 28.8 | 41 | 69.8 | 51.8% | 49.7 | 30.5 | 28.5 | 59 | 61.4% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 44 | 22.5 | 35 | 57.5 | 51.1% | 61.7 | 31.2 | 45.5 | 76.7 | 50.5% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 58.3 | 29.2 | 41 | 70.2 | 50% | 47.3 | 19.7 | 41.3 | 61 | 41.5% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49.2 | 26.6 | 34.8 | 61.4 | 54.1% | 52 | 29.4 | 34.2 | 63.6 | 56.5% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 55.2 | 29.2 | 41.4 | 70.6 | 52.9% | 52 | 27.4 | 39.2 | 66.6 | 52.7% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.2 | 28.2 | 33.7 | 61.8 | 55% | 49.8 | 26.7 | 37.3 | 64 | 53.5% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 48.8 | 26.3 | 35 | 61.3 | 53.9% | 54.7 | 29.7 | 38.2 | 67.8 | 54.3% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 50.4 | 26.6 | 36.2 | 62.8 | 52.8% | 56.8 | 25.8 | 44.6 | 70.4 | 45.4% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 49 | 26.2 | 36.5 | 62.7 | 53.4% | 55 | 31 | 35.3 | 66.3 | 56.4% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 51.8 | 26.3 | 37.7 | 64 | 50.8% | 48.7 | 26.7 | 37.7 | 64.3 | 54.8% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 58.2 | 36 | 31.2 | 67.2 | 61.9% | 42 | 18.4 | 38 | 56.4 | 43.8% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 55.8 | 29.8 | 41.8 | 71.7 | 53.4% | 52.3 | 27.7 | 40.7 | 68.3 | 52.9% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 46.3 | 24.8 | 34.3 | 59.2 | 53.6% | 54.8 | 27.8 | 39.7 | 67.5 | 50.8% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 43.7 | 21.2 | 36 | 57.2 | 48.5% | 56.2 | 31.7 | 34.8 | 66.5 | 56.4% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 42.7 | 20.5 | 38.3 | 58.8 | 48% | 54 | 32 | 33.3 | 65.3 | 59.3% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 52.6 | 26.4 | 38.8 | 65.2 | 50.2% | 49 | 28.2 | 30.2 | 58.4 | 57.6% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 50.4 | 30.8 | 28.6 | 59.4 | 61.1% | 54 | 25.6 | 42.8 | 68.4 | 47.4% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 59 | 31.5 | 37.8 | 69.3 | 53.4% | 43.7 | 20.7 | 37.5 | 58.2 | 47.3% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 57.2 | 31.8 | 38.2 | 70 | 55.7% | 45.8 | 24.8 | 34.3 | 59.2 | 54.2% |
| WASHINGTON | 51.7 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 63.2 | 53.5% | 50.3 | 24 | 39.8 | 63.8 | 47.7% |
Best of luck with Week 7 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
