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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the sixth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
As creatures of routine, we tend to gravitate towards absolutes. We take solace in figures to help us flesh out scenarios and provide us with more clarity. At this stage of the season, fantasy owners should be safe in the knowledge that, for the most part, we know who and what these teams are.
We have five weeks’ worth of data in the books now and although the process of attrition will change the landscape between now and the fantasy playoffs, staying the course with the ‘old reliables’ of tackle opportunity and pass rush opportunity is the best course of action.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 6.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four vs. Carolina
The discrepancy between the Bengals' pass rush at home and on the road this year is stark – in the Queen City, Marvin Lewis' outfit average pressure on 17.1% of opponent dropbacks. On the road, that number drops to 7.1%. The Bengals went undefeated at home last season and boast a perfect record there thus far. The Panthers come to town with lingering questions to answer about their patchwork offensive line, which has given up pressure on 14.2% of dropbacks. Although the rush isn’t always reaching Cam Newton, he is one of the most hit passers in the league and the Bengals should be able to apply some heat.
Houston front seven vs. Indianapolis
Could the trend of blowout victories on Thursday night continue for the Texans at Reliant Stadium? If their defense can stymie Andrew Luck and the Colts' vaunted passing attack, they have a shot. Although Houston have only averaged 1.4 sacks per game, they have registered 7.8 quarterback hits per game (owing, no doubt, to the presence of JJ Watt). The Colts haven’t been too bad on the offensive line and only surrender pressure on 10.6% of dropbacks, but this one feels like a statement game for the home team. Like my gut feeling for the Broncos to rack up the sacks last week, there is something in my gut telling me to trust in your Texans.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Philadelphia front four vs. New York Giants
In this pivotal NFC East tussle the smart play might be to side with Philadelphia's pass rush finally coming alive and causing the Giants trouble. However, having registered pressure on opposing dropbacks a measly 9.3% of the time this year, this unit is hard to trust. On the other side of the ledger, the Giants are upwardly mobile and have gelled well on the offensive line the past few weeks. They allow pressure on only 8% of dropbacks owing to the quick strike style of offense they employ. Getting consistent pressure on Eli Manning will be tough – and this Eagles front lacks the trust factor to lay your chips down. Avoid if possible.
Sack Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
2014 NFL Average | 12.6% | 1.99 | 4.68 | 37.2 | 12.6% | 1.99 | 4.68 | 37.2 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 5.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 40.8 | 18.9% | 2.3 | 6.8 | 35.8 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 6% | 0.8 | 2 | 33.2 | 13.5% | 1.2 | 5.6 | 41.4 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 8.5% | 1 | 3.2 | 37.6 | 9.1% | 1.4 | 3.6 | 39.6 |
BUFFALO Bills | 14.4% | 3.4 | 6 | 41.6 | 18% | 1.6 | 6.6 | 36.6 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 13.5% | 2.4 | 5.2 | 38.4 | 14.2% | 2.4 | 5.4 | 38 |
CHICAGO Bears | 11.6% | 2.2 | 4 | 34.6 | 11.3% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 40.8 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 12% | 2 | 5.5 | 45.8 | 2.5% | 0.3 | 0.8 | 29.5 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 11.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 36.5 | 11.5% | 1.3 | 4 | 34.8 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 14.5% | 1 | 5 | 34.6 | 10.1% | 1.8 | 3.4 | 33.6 |
DENVER Broncos | 14.3% | 2.8 | 6.3 | 43.8 | 8% | 1 | 3.3 | 40.5 |
DETROIT Lions | 18.1% | 2.4 | 6.6 | 36.4 | 15.3% | 3.4 | 6 | 39.2 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 19.5% | 2.4 | 7.2 | 37 | 13.4% | 2.4 | 4.4 | 32.8 |
HOUSTON Texans | 19.6% | 1.4 | 7.8 | 39.8 | 19.6% | 1 | 5.6 | 28.6 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5 | 36.4 | 10.6% | 1.2 | 4.8 | 45.2 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11.2% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 43 | 20.4% | 4.2 | 8 | 39.2 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 34.8 | 11.6% | 2.6 | 4 | 34.4 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 11.1% | 2.8 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 11.6% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 41 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 13.3% | 2 | 4.4 | 33 | 19% | 2.8 | 6.8 | 35.8 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 10.8% | 2 | 3.6 | 33.4 | 10% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 38 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 10.5% | 1.2 | 3.8 | 36.2 | 9% | 1 | 4 | 44.6 |
NEW YORK Giants | 15.8% | 2 | 5.8 | 36.8 | 8% | 1.4 | 2.8 | 35.2 |
NEW YORK Jets | 17.3% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 38.2 | 15.6% | 2.2 | 5.6 | 35.8 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 13.3% | 1 | 4 | 30 | 7.7% | 1 | 3 | 39 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 9.3% | 2.2 | 4 | 43 | 7.2% | 1.2 | 3 | 41.8 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 10.6% | 1.6 | 4 | 37.6 | 10.8% | 3 | 4.2 | 38.8 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 11.5% | 2.4 | 4.2 | 36.4 | 13.3% | 1.6 | 4.6 | 34.6 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 8.7% | 1 | 3.2 | 36.8 | 13.4% | 2.6 | 4.4 | 32.8 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 12.4% | 1.5 | 5 | 40.3 | 11.6% | 2.3 | 3.5 | 30.3 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 8.4% | 0.3 | 2.3 | 26.8 | 13.8% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 41.8 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 11.6% | 1.8 | 4.6 | 39.6 | 15.3% | 1.8 | 5.4 | 35.2 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 10.2% | 1.8 | 3.6 | 35.4 | 15.4% | 2.8 | 5.4 | 35 |
WASHINGTON | 17.9% | 2.8 | 6 | 33.6 | 12.6% | 1.8 | 5 | 39.8 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
St Louis defenders vs. San Francisco
A generous stat crew combined with a potent rushing attack for the 49ers should be a perfect recipe for success if you own any Rams defensive players. Under the lights on Monday Night Football, expect the Niners to stick to what has worked the past few weeks on their winning streak – ground and pound. Jim Harbaugh’s team ranks third in the NFL in rushing attempts (162) and have rushed 40+ times the last two games. The Rams have faced an average of 31 rushing attempts and lie right around the average in terms of tackle opportunity (50 per game) but the Niners will give them all they can handle.
New York Jets defenders vs. Denver
It seems like everywhere you turn this week somebody is piling on the Jets. It might be justified; all I know is that there are fantasy points to harvest from this mess in the Big Apple. Denver’s inability to run the football won’t be helped by a stingy Jets run defense, but Peyton Manning should have his way and control the tempo here. As a result, the Jets (50.8 tackle opportunities per game) should see an uptick in production and fantasy owners should expect a bounty of points. Don’t overthink this one: get your Jets into your lineup.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
San Diego defenders at Oakland
It doesn’t much matter who the signal caller is for the Raiders in this one; they stand little chance of overcoming what has become a very solid Chargers team. The Raiders rank second to last in the league in terms of tackle opportunity allowed. The game script should take them out of their comfort zone early – although they have caused San Diego problems in the past. Still, stick with the script here; keep your Chargers sidelined unless you have no alternatives.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
2014 NFL Average | 51.5 | 27.1 | 37.2 | 64.3 | 52.6% | 51.5 | 27.1 | 37.2 | 64.3 | 52.6% |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 53.3 | 25.5 | 40.8 | 66.3 | 47.9% | 44.5 | 25 | 35.8 | 60.8 | 56.2% |
ATLANTA Falcons | 55.6 | 33.8 | 33.2 | 67 | 60.8% | 52.4 | 24.6 | 41.4 | 66 | 46.9% |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.6 | 26 | 37.6 | 63.6 | 51.4% | 52 | 26.8 | 39.6 | 66.4 | 51.5% |
BUFFALO Bills | 52.2 | 23.6 | 41.6 | 65.2 | 45.2% | 49.4 | 26.6 | 36.6 | 63.2 | 53.8% |
CAROLINA Panthers | 50.8 | 24.2 | 38.4 | 62.6 | 47.6% | 49.2 | 24 | 38 | 62 | 48.8% |
CHICAGO Bears | 49.2 | 26.2 | 34.6 | 60.8 | 53.3% | 52.4 | 23.8 | 40.8 | 64.6 | 45.4% |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 55 | 28.3 | 45.8 | 74 | 51.4% | 49.3 | 30 | 29.5 | 59.5 | 60.9% |
CLEVELAND Browns | 54.3 | 29.5 | 36.5 | 66 | 54.4% | 53.5 | 31.5 | 34.8 | 66.3 | 58.9% |
DALLAS Cowboys | 46.8 | 23.4 | 34.6 | 58 | 50% | 56.4 | 32.6 | 33.6 | 66.2 | 57.8% |
DENVER Broncos | 52.5 | 25.3 | 43.8 | 69 | 48.1% | 52 | 24.8 | 40.5 | 65.3 | 47.6% |
DETROIT Lions | 46.4 | 23.4 | 36.4 | 59.8 | 50.4% | 52.6 | 26.6 | 39.2 | 65.8 | 50.6% |
GREEN BAY Packers | 58.4 | 35.6 | 37 | 72.6 | 61% | 44.8 | 22.2 | 32.8 | 55 | 49.6% |
HOUSTON Texans | 54.2 | 27.6 | 39.8 | 67.4 | 50.9% | 50.8 | 31.8 | 28.6 | 60.4 | 62.6% |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 44 | 22.2 | 36.4 | 58.6 | 50.5% | 61.4 | 30.4 | 45.2 | 75.6 | 49.5% |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 61.2 | 30.2 | 43 | 73.2 | 49.3% | 44.6 | 19 | 39.2 | 58.2 | 42.6% |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49.2 | 26.6 | 34.8 | 61.4 | 54.1% | 52 | 29.2 | 34.4 | 63.6 | 56.2% |
MIAMI Dolphins | 53.8 | 28 | 40.5 | 68.5 | 52.1% | 54 | 28.5 | 41 | 69.5 | 52.8% |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.2 | 28.2 | 33 | 61.2 | 55.1% | 50 | 28.4 | 35.8 | 64.2 | 56.8% |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 48.2 | 27 | 33.4 | 60.4 | 56% | 54.4 | 30.2 | 38 | 68.2 | 55.5% |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 50.4 | 26.6 | 36.2 | 62.8 | 52.8% | 56.8 | 25.8 | 44.6 | 70.4 | 45.4% |
NEW YORK Giants | 47.2 | 24.2 | 36.8 | 61 | 51.3% | 56.4 | 32.6 | 35.2 | 67.8 | 57.8% |
NEW YORK Jets | 50.8 | 25 | 38.2 | 63.2 | 49.2% | 50 | 29 | 35.8 | 64.8 | 58% |
OAKLAND Raiders | 58.8 | 36.8 | 30 | 66.8 | 62.6% | 43 | 18 | 39 | 57 | 41.9% |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.4 | 31.2 | 43 | 74.2 | 54.4% | 51.2 | 26 | 41.8 | 67.8 | 50.8% |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 46.2 | 22.2 | 37.6 | 59.8 | 48.1% | 54.8 | 27 | 38.8 | 65.8 | 49.3% |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 44.8 | 21.4 | 36.4 | 57.8 | 47.8% | 56.2 | 31.4 | 34.6 | 66 | 55.9% |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 41.2 | 19.6 | 36.8 | 56.4 | 47.6% | 54.4 | 32.4 | 32.8 | 65.2 | 59.6% |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 51 | 23.8 | 40.3 | 64 | 46.6% | 52.8 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 61 | 58.3% |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 50 | 31 | 26.8 | 57.8 | 62% | 55 | 26 | 41.8 | 67.8 | 47.3% |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 59.6 | 30.8 | 39.6 | 70.4 | 51.7% | 43 | 21.2 | 35.2 | 56.4 | 49.3% |
TENNESSEE Titans | 56.4 | 33.6 | 35.4 | 69 | 59.6% | 46.2 | 25 | 35 | 60 | 54.1% |
WASHINGTON | 51.6 | 28.6 | 33.6 | 62.2 | 55.4% | 51.8 | 25.4 | 39.8 | 65.2 | 49% |
Best of luck with Week 6 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.