Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the third edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Trends are beginning to emerge as we survey the damage after an injury-riddled Week 2. Certain teams, in the immortal words of Dennis Green, are who we thought they were and will continue to provide reasonably predictable week to week value. Some others are still in the feeling out process.
I say this every year in my column, but it bears repeating. No matter what record your team has right now, don’t get too down in the dumps or too high on your horse. It’s a long season and, as we saw in Week 2, injuries can derail your plans in a moment. Keep active on the waiver wire and read the great content provided by John Norton, Jene Bramel and the rest of the IDP team to stay on top of things.
With two sets of data points now at our disposal, predicting matchups and where the value lies is becoming an easier task, but sometimes the statistics can be misleading, so a healthy dose of watching film can provide some context.
So without further ado, let's get to the best and worst matchups of Week 3.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
New Orleans front seven vs. Minnesota
After two bitter losses, the Saints will be delighted to get some home cooking this week as they welcome the Vikings to the Super Dome. Defensive vulnerabilities have been the weakness for New Orleans this season so far, but it shouldn’t be difficult to generate a pass rush with the crowd noise and with their pride hurt. This is set up for a bounce back from New Orleans, especially defensively, so plug in your Saints this week in what could be a veritable feeding frenzy. The Vikings, incidentally, have allowed pressure on 19.4% of dropbacks through two weeks.
Detroit front seven vs. Green Bay
The Lions have applied pressure on opposing quarterbacks on 21.9% of their dropbacks this season and looked outstanding up front against Carolina. With the shaky offensive line of the Packers visiting Ford Field, they should be licking their chops for more of the same. Rookie center Corey Linsley will need all the help he can get against Ndamukong 'Don’t Call Me Donkey Kong' Suh, Nick Fairley and C.J. Mosley. Detroit will be smarting after last week’s defeat and should be able to apply the heat and get home against a familiar foe.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Seattle front seven vs. Denver
The Broncos have only allowed pressure on 6.3% of dropbacks so far this season, understandable perhaps considering the teams they have faced. Seattle will present a far different challenge, but the Broncos offense has utilised more multiple tight end, two-back alignments this season – and indeed in the preseason victory over the same Seahawks to good effect – so the prospect of a fruitful pass rushing outing from the Seahawks is slim. I would advise sitting your Seattle pass rushers this week as we see a more conservative approach from Denver.
Sack Opportunity Chart
| Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 12.6% | 2.16 | 4.7 | 37.2 | 12.6% | 2.16 | 4.7 | 37.2 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 7.8% | 1 | 3 | 38.5 | 19.4% | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | 33 | 13.3% | 1.5 | 6 | 45 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 3.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 38.5 | 7.4% | 1.5 | 3.5 | 47 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 7.7% | 3 | 4 | 52 | 8.2% | 0.5 | 2 | 24.5 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 16.7% | 3.5 | 7.5 | 45 | 15.1% | 2.5 | 5.5 | 36.5 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 11.5% | 2.5 | 3.5 | 30.5 | 7% | 1.5 | 3 | 43 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 14.4% | 2.5 | 8 | 55.5 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | 31 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 12.5% | 2.5 | 5 | 40 | 14.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 38 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 13.3% | 1.5 | 4 | 30 | 12.3% | 3.5 | 4.5 | 36.5 |
| DENVER Broncos | 11% | 2.5 | 5.5 | 50 | 6.3% | 1 | 2 | 32 |
| DETROIT Lions | 21.9% | 3 | 8 | 36.5 | 9.4% | 2.5 | 4 | 42.5 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 12.7% | 1.5 | 4 | 31.5 | 18.3% | 3.5 | 7.5 | 41 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 20.7% | 1.5 | 8.5 | 41 | 12.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 20.5 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 9.5% | 0.5 | 3.5 | 37 | 10% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 45 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 7.9% | 4 | 3.5 | 44.5 | 27.4% | 6.5 | 11.5 | 42 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 14.1% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 32 | 13.3% | 3 | 5.5 | 41.5 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 9.3% | 2 | 4 | 43 | 8.1% | 2.5 | 3.5 | 43 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 17.2% | 3 | 5.5 | 32 | 19.4% | 3 | 6.5 | 33.5 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 14.7% | 3.5 | 5.5 | 37.5 | 10.8% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 41.5 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 10.5% | 1 | 4.5 | 43 | 7.1% | 1 | 3 | 42 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 16.7% | 2.5 | 5.5 | 33 | 14.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 38 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 16.3% | 3 | 6.5 | 40 | 13.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 32.5 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 8% | 1 | 2 | 25 | 6.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 38 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 10% | 1.5 | 4 | 40 | 9.2% | 2.5 | 4 | 43.5 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 7.9% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 9.1% | 2.5 | 3.5 | 38.5 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 33 | 10.8% | 0.5 | 4 | 37 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 9.3% | 2 | 3.5 | 37.5 | 12.9% | 2.5 | 4 | 31 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 10.8% | 2 | 4 | 37 | 8.9% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 28 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 19.1% | 0.5 | 4.5 | 23.5 | 16.7% | 3.5 | 6 | 36 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 12.1% | 1.5 | 4 | 33 | 21.7% | 2 | 6.5 | 30 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 15.3% | 4 | 5.5 | 36 | 17.8% | 3 | 6.5 | 36.5 |
| WASHINGTON | 36.7% | 5 | 11 | 30 | 21.5% | 3 | 8.5 | 39.5 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Jacksonville defenders vs. Indianapolis
This one might become a fixture of the column, I'm not going to lie. The Jaguars, after an offseason of quiet optimism that they could take a step forward, have been stuck in the mud since the get-go. The visit of divisional foe Indianapolis will not be a welcome sight. The Jaguars have averaged 66.5 tackle opportunities per game on defense through two weeks, a statistic skewed by the smaller sample size but still indicative of how poor they have been. While a switch to first round pick Blake Bortles may be on the cards, for this week we can safely plug in our Jaguars defenders in what should be a rich tackle environment.
Washington defenders at Philadelphia
The Redskins defense has been a respectable unit thus far, but even against the Jaguars cracks were showing in their façade. In the secondary especially, they are ripe for the picking. Philadelphia, coming off back-to-back comeback victories, should be brimming with confidence as they return home. The Eagles offense has averaged 56.5 tackle opportunities allowed so far, with 30 rush attempts per game to boot. Redskins defenders like David Amerson, Keenan Robinson and DeAngelo Hall have great upside this week.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
New England defenders vs. Oakland
The Raiders offense is allowing just 40.5 tackle opportunities per game through two weeks – and believe me, this is no aberration. This pattern should continue for the foreseeable future. Charles Woodson said the Raiders ‘sucked’ this week, and while other teams might respond to this with fire and brimstone the following week, the Raiders simply don’t have the talent to mount a serious challenge this week in New England. Big play opportunities will be there for the Patriots and Bill Belichick should have his defense ready to exploit any mistakes made by rookie passer Derek Carr. In a one-sided affair, avoid your Patriots unless you have no better options.
Pittsburgh defenders at Carolina
The Panthers have excelled defensively this season, carrying forward the momentum from the second-ranked defensive effort of 2013. However, their Achilles heel has been their run blocking. The tape reveals several examples of missed assignments and a lack of chemistry is evident; this is no surprise considering the turnover they have had. While the Steelers have been vulnerable against opposing ground games so far, the Panthers may struggle to establish anything consistent in that facet. Call it a gut feeling, but it might be wise to temper your expectations for every-week plays like Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
| Tackle | Rushes | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51.4 | 27 | 37.2 | 64.2 | 52.5% | 51.4 | 27 | 37.2 | 64.2 | 52.5% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 50 | 25.5 | 38.5 | 64 | 51% | 49 | 27 | 36 | 63 | 55.1% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 59 | 36.5 | 33 | 69.5 | 61.9% | 51 | 22 | 45 | 67 | 43.1% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 46.5 | 22 | 38.5 | 60.5 | 47.3% | 57.5 | 28 | 47 | 75 | 48.7% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 55 | 19.5 | 52 | 71.5 | 35.5% | 49.5 | 33 | 24.5 | 57.5 | 66.7% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 45.5 | 17.5 | 45 | 62.5 | 38.5% | 54 | 28.5 | 36.5 | 65 | 52.8% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 51 | 30 | 30.5 | 60.5 | 58.8% | 47.5 | 17.5 | 43 | 60.5 | 36.8% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.5 | 19.5 | 55.5 | 75 | 37.9% | 56 | 35.5 | 31 | 66.5 | 63.4% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 55.5 | 27.5 | 40 | 67.5 | 49.5% | 53.5 | 30 | 38 | 68 | 56.1% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 40 | 21.5 | 30 | 51.5 | 53.8% | 57.5 | 33 | 36.5 | 69.5 | 57.4% |
| DENVER Broncos | 55.5 | 22.5 | 50 | 72.5 | 40.5% | 48 | 25.5 | 32 | 57.5 | 53.1% |
| DETROIT Lions | 46 | 23 | 36.5 | 59.5 | 50% | 51 | 24 | 42.5 | 66.5 | 47.1% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 56 | 37 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 66.1% | 49 | 21.5 | 41 | 62.5 | 43.9% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 49.5 | 20 | 41 | 61 | 40.4% | 54 | 40 | 20.5 | 60.5 | 74.1% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 52 | 30 | 37 | 67 | 57.7% | 55 | 26 | 45 | 71 | 47.3% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 66.5 | 37 | 44.5 | 81.5 | 55.6% | 43 | 17.5 | 42 | 59.5 | 40.7% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 52.5 | 28.5 | 32 | 60.5 | 54.3% | 49.5 | 24 | 41.5 | 65.5 | 48.5% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 51 | 26.5 | 43 | 69.5 | 52% | 56.5 | 29.5 | 43 | 72.5 | 52.2% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 52 | 29.5 | 32 | 61.5 | 56.7% | 46.5 | 25.5 | 33.5 | 59 | 54.8% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 50.5 | 28.5 | 37.5 | 66 | 56.4% | 53 | 28.5 | 41.5 | 70 | 53.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 56 | 27.5 | 43 | 70.5 | 49.1% | 56.5 | 27.5 | 42 | 69.5 | 48.7% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 49.5 | 29 | 33 | 62 | 58.6% | 48.5 | 24.5 | 38 | 62.5 | 50.5% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 44 | 18.5 | 40 | 58.5 | 42% | 57 | 35.5 | 32.5 | 68 | 62.3% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 59.5 | 40 | 25 | 65 | 67.2% | 40.5 | 16 | 38 | 54 | 39.5% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 55 | 31.5 | 40 | 71.5 | 57.3% | 56.5 | 30 | 43.5 | 73.5 | 53.1% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 54.5 | 33 | 31.5 | 64.5 | 60.6% | 48.5 | 23 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 47.4% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 42 | 19.5 | 33 | 52.5 | 46.4% | 55.5 | 30.5 | 37 | 67.5 | 55% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 45 | 20 | 37.5 | 57.5 | 44.4% | 49.5 | 28.5 | 31 | 59.5 | 57.6% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 56.5 | 29 | 37 | 66 | 51.3% | 44.5 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 56.2% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 48 | 31 | 23.5 | 54.5 | 64.6% | 52 | 25.5 | 36 | 61.5 | 49% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 55.5 | 31 | 33 | 64 | 55.9% | 44.5 | 23.5 | 30 | 53.5 | 52.8% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 53 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 56.6% | 48.5 | 25.5 | 36.5 | 62 | 52.6% |
| WASHINGTON | 41 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 53.7% | 62 | 32.5 | 39.5 | 72 | 52.4% |
Best of luck with Week 3 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
