Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the sixteenth and final edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
“This is why you lift all them weights, this is why do all that ****” – Former Giants head coach and Pro Football
Hall of Famer Bill Parcells
While fantasy football, especially ensconced in your living room munching on a pack of Doritos as you weigh up your line-up decisions, isn’t exactly the grind of real football, it takes us on a similar journey. It lets us step into the shoes of a general manager and make the calls to decide our franchise’s fate.
This week is likely your do-or-die game, if you made it that far. If you didn’t, like me in many leagues you are focused on next year or simply shutting it down for a while to recharge the batteries.
My only advice to you championship teams is to seek advice from all the great staff here at Footballguys (seriously, we’ve got all the bases covered), but don’t over think things. Trust your instincts; after all, they’ve gotten you this far. Good luck.
Let’s trawl through the Week 16 matchups to mine some IDP gold.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Buffalo front four at Oakland
There’s no denying it; the Bills defensive line is fearsome. When you can essentially (drops notwithstanding) limit the great Aaron Rodgers to a measly 17 completions, you are doing something right. Although Oakland has been a stingy pass rushing matchup for most of the season, there is a sense of cracks appearing in that previously sturdy foundation. Over the past three games, Oakland has given up 11 sacks, almost half of their season total of 23. Despite giving up fewer than a sack per game on average at home, this seems like the kind of matchup that Buffalo’s front can dominate if the game script allows. The Raiders have a tendency under Tony Sparano to respond after poor outings, but this may be too tall a task with the Bills fighting for their playoff lives. The Bills lead the NFL with 3.5 sacks per game and 6.1 QB hits per game.
Matchup rating: ***
Detroit front seven at Chicago
The Bears can’t possibly be worse than they were on Monday night, can they? The truth is that, yes, they can. Marc Trestman’s seat has gone from lukewarm to scorching over the past couple of weeks, while Jay Cutler and the Bears offense lacks any rhythm. The Detroit offense has been similarly unimpressive, but their defense has more than picked up the slack. Chicago’s scheme – quick releases, shorter dropbacks – is all well and good when they have the lead, but when Cutler is forced to drop back more often, bad things happen. The Lions should be able to take advantage of that. Detroit applies pressure on 18.1% of opponent dropbacks, with 2.8 sacks per game.
Matchup rating: ***
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Denver pass rushers at Cincinnati
A road game in the Queen City will not be easy for the Broncos, especially with Peyton Manning showing signs of his age at exactly the wrong time of the season. Expect a slugfest with both teams leaning heavily on their ground attack. This game script will have a knock-on effect on the number of pass rushing opportunities. As it is, Cincinnati has been a stingy matchup, giving up pressure on only 9.1% of dropbacks and only 1.4 sacks per game. Denver’s strong secondary play could give Dalton some problems with timing and rhythm, but the Bengals should keep this close to limit the Broncos’ edge rushers from pinning their ears back.
Matchup rating: **
Sack Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
2014 NFL Average | 13.6% | 2.34 | 5.07 | 37.3 | 13.6% | 2.34 | 5.07 | 37.3 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 13.2% | 2.4 | 5.2 | 39.6 | 16.8% | 1.6 | 6.1 | 36.1 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 10.6% | 1.1 | 3.9 | 37.1 | 13% | 1.8 | 5.3 | 40.7 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 16.9% | 3.2 | 6.9 | 40.6 | 8.9% | 1.1 | 3.1 | 34.6 |
BUFFALO Bills | 15.7% | 3.5 | 6.1 | 38.6 | 14.6% | 2.5 | 5.6 | 38.7 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 11.8% | 2.2 | 4.4 | 37.5 | 12.5% | 2.9 | 4.8 | 38.4 |
CHICAGO Bears | 13.6% | 2.3 | 5 | 36.9 | 11.7% | 2.6 | 4.8 | 40.8 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.4% | 1.3 | 4.4 | 38.8 | 9.1% | 1.4 | 3 | 32.9 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 11.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 39.1 | 13.4% | 1.6 | 4.6 | 34.1 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 13.3% | 1.6 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 3.6 | 32.1 |
DENVER Broncos | 13.9% | 2.7 | 6.1 | 44.1 | 5.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 38.4 |
DETROIT Lions | 18.1% | 2.8 | 7.4 | 40.6 | 14.4% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 40.2 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 14.6% | 2.3 | 5.5 | 37.8 | 11.2% | 2 | 4 | 35.8 |
HOUSTON Texans | 17.3% | 2.1 | 7 | 40.4 | 17.2% | 1.7 | 5.3 | 30.8 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.8% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 37.7 | 14.5% | 1.9 | 6.3 | 43.4 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.3% | 2.8 | 4.9 | 36.4 | 19.5% | 4.4 | 7.8 | 39.9 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 14.3% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 37.4 | 14.2% | 2.8 | 4.6 | 32.8 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 12% | 2.4 | 4.4 | 37 | 14.8% | 2.7 | 5.8 | 39.1 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.3% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 34.9 | 18% | 3.1 | 6.6 | 36.4 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 12.9% | 2.6 | 5.1 | 40 | 12% | 1.3 | 4.8 | 39.9 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 10.9% | 2.2 | 4 | 36.7 | 11.4% | 1.6 | 4.9 | 42.6 |
NEW YORK Giants | 17.2% | 2.9 | 6.1 | 35.4 | 12% | 2.1 | 4.7 | 39.4 |
NEW YORK Jets | 16.4% | 2.6 | 5.9 | 35.7 | 18.1% | 3 | 6.3 | 34.7 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 10.2% | 1.4 | 3.4 | 33.5 | 8.2% | 1.6 | 3.4 | 41.6 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 12.1% | 3.4 | 4.9 | 40.1 | 8.9% | 1.8 | 3.6 | 40 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 14.3% | 1.6 | 4.9 | 34.4 | 11% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 41.6 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8.3% | 1.4 | 2.9 | 35.2 | 11.9% | 2 | 4.4 | 36.7 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 14.3% | 2.3 | 5 | 34.9 | 13.8% | 3.5 | 4.8 | 34.7 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 14.3% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 32.4 | 17.9% | 2.7 | 5.6 | 31.1 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 11.9% | 2.6 | 4.4 | 37.1 | 16.6% | 2.9 | 5.8 | 34.8 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 12.9% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 37 | 20% | 3 | 7.5 | 37.4 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 11.8% | 2.4 | 4.4 | 36.9 | 16.8% | 3 | 5.9 | 34.9 |
WASHINGTON Redskins | 15.4% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 33.4 | 18.1% | 3.8 | 6.9 | 38.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Arizona defenders vs. Seattle
The Cardinals, on paper, are not a good team for tackle opportunities. On the season they average 49.4, but the fact Ryan Lindley is starting will certainly change things. Seattle is starting to resemble the team they were last year when they rumbled to the Super Bowl, obliterating all comers in their wake. Lindley is a bit of an unknown, and Bruce Arians has the ability to get the best out of the untested passer, but the smart play here is to assume the offense will struggle. That will give the defense plenty of opportunities against a Seattle offense that averages 53.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game, with 32.6 rushing attempts per game.
Matchup rating: ****
Washington defenders vs. Philadelphia
Mark Sanchez’s warts are beginning to show, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles won’t be able to take care of business in the nation’s capital on Saturday night. The Redskins have been dire for the most part defensively and Philadelphia should be able to have their way with them. The Eagles allow 54.4 tackle opportunities per game, and should be able to give LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles and even Chris Polk a heavy workload. This falls under the category of ‘no overthinking’ – trust your Redskins defenders to deliver.
Matchup rating: ***
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Pittsburgh defenders vs. Kansas City
This ‘no touchdowns to a wide receiver’ situation is becoming a bit farcical at this stage, but the Chiefs have found other ways to score points. Despite Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities of late, it is hard to trust the Chiefs to manufacture offense on a consistent basis. Both teams have it all to play for, but I can see Pittsburgh getting into a lead and making things very difficult for Kansas City. The Chiefs allow a below average 49.4 tackle opportunities per game, but that assumes a favourable game script. I don’t see that playing out; avoid your Steelers if you are looking for upside.
Matchup rating: **
Tackle Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
2014 NFL Average | 51 | 26.7 | 37.3 | 64 | 52.4% | 51 | 26.7 | 37.3 | 64 | 52.4% |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 49.4 | 23.6 | 39.6 | 63.1 | 37.3% | 47 | 25.5 | 36.1 | 61.6 | 41.4% |
ATLANTA Falcons | 52.3 | 28.4 | 37.1 | 65.4 | 43.3% | 51.3 | 23.9 | 40.7 | 64.6 | 36.9% |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.1 | 23.1 | 40.6 | 63.7 | 36.2% | 51.5 | 28.9 | 34.6 | 63.5 | 45.4% |
BUFFALO Bills | 50.4 | 25.3 | 38.6 | 63.9 | 39.6% | 50.4 | 25.4 | 38.7 | 64.1 | 39.6% |
CAROLINA Panthers | 51.1 | 25.6 | 37.5 | 63.1 | 40.6% | 52.4 | 28.2 | 38.4 | 66.6 | 42.3% |
CHICAGO Bears | 51.6 | 25.9 | 36.9 | 62.8 | 41.3% | 49.9 | 22.3 | 40.8 | 63.1 | 35.3% |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 52.4 | 28.7 | 38.8 | 67.5 | 42.5% | 51.8 | 30.4 | 32.9 | 63.3 | 48.1% |
CLEVELAND Browns | 53.6 | 30.5 | 39.1 | 69.6 | 43.8% | 50 | 30.4 | 34.1 | 64.5 | 47.2% |
DALLAS Cowboys | 49.6 | 25.6 | 35.4 | 61 | 41.9% | 54.1 | 31.6 | 32.1 | 63.7 | 49.6% |
DENVER Broncos | 49.7 | 21 | 44.1 | 65.1 | 32.2% | 53.8 | 27.9 | 38.4 | 66.4 | 42.1% |
DETROIT Lions | 47.9 | 20.7 | 40.6 | 61.4 | 33.8% | 50.6 | 24.8 | 40.2 | 65 | 38.1% |
GREEN BAY Packers | 53.2 | 29.4 | 37.8 | 67.2 | 43.8% | 49.6 | 26.2 | 35.8 | 62 | 42.3% |
HOUSTON Texans | 53.4 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 68.3 | 40.9% | 53.3 | 33.8 | 30.8 | 64.6 | 52.3% |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.9 | 25.6 | 37.7 | 63.4 | 40.5% | 54.1 | 26.8 | 43.4 | 70.2 | 38.1% |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.4 | 30.8 | 36.4 | 67.2 | 45.8% | 48.6 | 23 | 39.9 | 62.9 | 36.6% |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 50 | 27.3 | 37.4 | 64.7 | 42.2% | 49.4 | 27.2 | 32.8 | 60 | 45.4% |
MIAMI Dolphins | 51.6 | 27.9 | 37 | 64.9 | 43% | 51.7 | 25 | 39.1 | 64.1 | 39% |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 52.4 | 28.6 | 34.9 | 63.5 | 45% | 48.7 | 25.1 | 36.4 | 61.6 | 40.8% |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 49.9 | 25.3 | 40 | 65.3 | 38.7% | 54.1 | 27.8 | 39.9 | 67.7 | 41% |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 50.7 | 27.3 | 36.7 | 64 | 42.6% | 56.4 | 26.1 | 42.6 | 68.7 | 37.9% |
NEW YORK Giants | 50.3 | 27.6 | 35.4 | 62.9 | 43.8% | 53.5 | 27.9 | 39.4 | 67.2 | 41.4% |
NEW YORK Jets | 48.9 | 24.9 | 35.7 | 60.6 | 41.1% | 52.3 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 66.2 | 47.6% |
OAKLAND Raiders | 52.9 | 31 | 33.5 | 64.5 | 48.1% | 45.5 | 20.3 | 41.6 | 61.9 | 32.8% |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 54.9 | 30 | 40.1 | 70.1 | 42.8% | 54.4 | 29.5 | 40 | 69.5 | 42.4% |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 45.6 | 23.2 | 34.4 | 57.6 | 40.3% | 55.8 | 27 | 41.6 | 68.6 | 39.4% |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 48.7 | 26.6 | 35.2 | 61.9 | 43.1% | 50.3 | 24.9 | 36.7 | 61.6 | 40.4% |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 46.6 | 25.2 | 34.9 | 60.1 | 41.9% | 50.6 | 28.4 | 34.7 | 63.1 | 45% |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 46.1 | 24.8 | 32.4 | 57.2 | 43.3% | 53.1 | 32.6 | 31.1 | 63.7 | 51.2% |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.4 | 25.6 | 37.1 | 62.6 | 40.8% | 48.1 | 25.4 | 34.8 | 60.2 | 42.2% |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 55.6 | 29.6 | 37 | 66.6 | 44.5% | 44.1 | 21.5 | 37.4 | 58.9 | 36.5% |
TENNESSEE Titans | 57.4 | 32.9 | 36.9 | 69.8 | 47.1% | 43.4 | 21.7 | 34.9 | 56.6 | 38.3% |
WASHINGTON Redskins | 48.7 | 25.9 | 33.4 | 59.4 | 43.7% | 51.6 | 24.9 | 38.3 | 63.1 | 39.4% |
Best of luck with Week 16 and I’ll see you back here next season for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.