Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the fourteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” – Wayne Gretsky
If you’ve come this far into the fantasy season and you still have something to play for, congratulations to you. You have successfully navigated the rough and tumble of the regular season, but now you approach the unforgiving buzzsaw of the postseason.
Any mistake is amplified, any error punished. But my advice to you this week is not to set your line-up in fear, but embrace the occasion. Trust the players who have led you thus far, with a few matchup-based selections for good measure.
It’s time to win your league, my friends.
Take your shot this week. If you don’t shoot, you can’t score.
Let’s sink our teeth into the matchups for Week 14.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
New Orleans pass rushers vs. Carolina
The New Orleans pass rush has been a rather toothless unit this season, but this game ought to give them their bite back. After an impressive road victory over the Jekyll and Hyde Steelers, the Saints return home to the comfy confines of the dome where the reeling Panthers are their reward. Carolina’s offense is in a tailspin and has allowed 37 sacks this season (5th in league) along with 5.2 quarterback hits per game. Even with the Saints’ profligacy of pure pass rushing numbers this season – they have only 13 sacks at home – this matchup screams ‘get well game’. If Carolina get into a hole early, this could be a veritable feeding frenzy for a hungry Saints team eager to punch their postseason ticket.
Minnesota front four vs. New York Jets
The feisty Vikings are finishing strong, and what better team to come to town than the Jets to continue that run? The Jets allow pressure on 18.4% of dropbacks, good for second in the NFL, and on the road boast a sack allowed percentage of 9.4%. Gang Green were able to play it close to the vest on Monday night against Miami, but a Mike Zimmer-led Vikings team may be able to dictate the tempo here. Defensive end Everson Griffen has provided a pass rushing spark, along with Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd and the underrated Tom Johnson. If the game script goes to plan, the Vikings should put the final nail in the Jets’ coffin and accumulate some nice pass rushing totals.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
San Francisco pass rushers at Oakland
In the Battle of the Bay Area, you may want to look elsewhere for pass rushing value. As has been the case all season long, Oakland has been a poor matchup for pass rush opportunity. The Raiders give up pressure on only 7.1% of dropbacks, bettered only by the Broncos. San Francisco’s sack totals have been going up in recent weeks, but it is hard to discount the Raiders’ stubbornness in pass protection. The smart play here may be to assume a similar game script to last week’s Rams debacle, but this is a rivalry game and should be closer than most think. Start your 49ers with caution.
Sack Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 13.4% | 2.28 | 5.03 | 37.4 | 13.4% | 2.28 | 5.03 | 37.4 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 12.4% | 2.2 | 4.8 | 39.1 | 17.6% | 1.6 | 6.5 | 36.8 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 10.5% | 1.2 | 3.9 | 37.2 | 13.4% | 2 | 5.5 | 41.1 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 14.9% | 2.6 | 6 | 40.3 | 9.5% | 1.3 | 3.3 | 35.1 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 17.2% | 4 | 6.8 | 39.8 | 15.3% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 37.6 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 11.3% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 36.9 | 13.4% | 3.1 | 5.2 | 38.5 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 14% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 37.6 | 11.7% | 2.5 | 4.8 | 40.6 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.4% | 1.3 | 4.6 | 40.3 | 9.1% | 1.3 | 3 | 33 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 10.1% | 1.9 | 3.9 | 38.8 | 12.5% | 1.5 | 4.4 | 35.3 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 14.1% | 1.6 | 4.9 | 34.8 | 11.6% | 2.1 | 3.8 | 32.4 |
| DENVER Broncos | 15.5% | 2.8 | 6.7 | 43 | 6.1% | 1.1 | 2.5 | 41.3 |
| DETROIT Lions | 17.1% | 2.4 | 6.8 | 39.9 | 14.1% | 2.9 | 5.8 | 41.4 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 15% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 38.3 | 11.9% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 35.1 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 17.3% | 2 | 7 | 40.4 | 17.4% | 1.8 | 5.6 | 32 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.9% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 39.2 | 13.6% | 1.8 | 5.8 | 43 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.5% | 3.1 | 5.2 | 38.3 | 18.2% | 4.2 | 7.1 | 39 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13.4% | 2.7 | 4.8 | 36 | 14.6% | 2.8 | 4.7 | 31.9 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 12.5% | 2.8 | 4.7 | 37.4 | 13.6% | 2.3 | 5.2 | 38.1 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.6% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 35.8 | 18.2% | 3.1 | 6.6 | 36.3 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 11.7% | 2.3 | 4.6 | 39.3 | 11.9% | 1.4 | 4.8 | 39.9 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 11.1% | 2 | 4.1 | 36.9 | 11.2% | 1.6 | 4.8 | 42.3 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 15.6% | 2.2 | 5.3 | 34.3 | 11.8% | 2.3 | 4.7 | 39.4 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 16.4% | 2.7 | 5.9 | 36.2 | 18.4% | 3 | 6.5 | 35.3 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 10.5% | 1.1 | 3.5 | 33.3 | 7.1% | 1.5 | 2.9 | 41.1 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 12.7% | 3.5 | 5.2 | 40.8 | 8.5% | 1.5 | 3.6 | 42.1 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 15.2% | 1.6 | 5.2 | 33.9 | 11.4% | 2.8 | 4.8 | 42.3 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8% | 1.5 | 2.8 | 35.4 | 12.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 36.3 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.5% | 2.2 | 4.8 | 35.9 | 13.2% | 3.2 | 4.7 | 35.3 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 13.8% | 1.7 | 4.7 | 33.8 | 18% | 2.6 | 5.5 | 30.6 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 11.7% | 2.3 | 4.3 | 37.1 | 16.2% | 2.9 | 5.7 | 35 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 12.6% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 36.4 | 19% | 2.8 | 7.1 | 37.3 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 11.3% | 2.6 | 4.2 | 36.9 | 16.6% | 2.8 | 5.7 | 34.2 |
| WASHINGTON | 15% | 2.3 | 5.1 | 33.9 | 16.8% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 37.7 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Atlanta defenders at Green Bay
The 12-point gambling line tells you all you need to know about what the public think of Green Bay’s chances to put up a cricket score at Lambeau. It is the Falcons, after all, who have allowed 24.9 points per game. The Falcons average 52.3 tackle opportunities per game, while the Packers offense allows 49.8 per game. It may not sound like a winning formula, but the Pack know that sustaining a ground game could be their ticket to postseason glory with a healthy Eddie Lacy. Expect a heavy dose of Lacy against the Falcons in what should be a comfortable home win, with ample opportunity for leading Falcons tacklers to get theirs.
San Diego defenders vs. New England
This tasty Sunday night matchup features two of the hottest quarterbacks in the league right now, but also an opportunity for tackle opportunity if you look in the right places. New England ranks among the league’s best in tackle opportunity allowed at 54.3 per game. Their balance and clock-eating drives should give the Chargers ample opportunity to dent the box score in what should be a tight game. Bet on your Chargers to deliver in a perfect matchup.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Detroit defenders vs. Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers offense, while a combative unit, has lacked consistency for the longest time and cannot be relied upon to sustain drives. For that very reason you should avoid your Lions this week unless you have no better options. The Bucs allow a putrid 44.9 tackle opportunities per game with only 22 rush attempts per game. Part of this is down to game script, but there is a malaise in the Tampa rushing attack. It cannot be trusted. There is decent pass rushing upside here for Lions defenders, but look for tackle upside elsewhere in this most crucial of weeks.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51.2 | 26.8 | 37.4 | 64.2 | 52.3% | 51.2 | 26.8 | 37.4 | 64.2 | 52.3% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 50.2 | 24.4 | 39.1 | 63.5 | 38.5% | 46.5 | 24.3 | 36.8 | 61.1 | 39.7% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 52.3 | 28.8 | 37.2 | 65.9 | 43.6% | 51.9 | 24.2 | 41.1 | 65.3 | 37% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.4 | 23.7 | 40.3 | 64 | 37% | 51.5 | 28.9 | 35.1 | 64 | 45.2% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 51.6 | 25 | 39.8 | 64.8 | 38.6% | 49.8 | 25.6 | 37.6 | 63.2 | 40.5% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 52.3 | 26.6 | 36.9 | 63.5 | 41.9% | 51.1 | 26.9 | 38.5 | 65.4 | 41.1% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 50.7 | 25.2 | 37.6 | 62.8 | 40.1% | 50.7 | 23.1 | 40.6 | 63.7 | 36.3% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 53.9 | 29.5 | 40.3 | 69.8 | 42.3% | 51.3 | 30 | 33 | 63 | 47.6% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 53.5 | 30.2 | 38.8 | 69 | 43.7% | 52 | 31.5 | 35.3 | 66.8 | 47.1% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 50.5 | 26.8 | 34.8 | 61.7 | 43.5% | 52.8 | 30.4 | 32.4 | 62.8 | 48.4% |
| DENVER Broncos | 49.5 | 21.5 | 43 | 64.5 | 33.3% | 54.7 | 26.9 | 41.3 | 68.2 | 39.5% |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.9 | 21.3 | 39.9 | 61.2 | 34.7% | 50.8 | 24.5 | 41.4 | 65.9 | 37.2% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 53.8 | 29.6 | 38.3 | 67.8 | 43.6% | 49.8 | 26 | 35.1 | 61.1 | 42.6% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 54.5 | 28.4 | 40.4 | 68.8 | 41.3% | 52.8 | 32.5 | 32 | 64.5 | 50.4% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.6 | 23.9 | 39.2 | 63.1 | 37.9% | 55.3 | 27.3 | 43 | 70.3 | 38.8% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 56.1 | 30.3 | 38.3 | 68.5 | 44.2% | 48.4 | 23.1 | 39 | 62.1 | 37.2% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 50.2 | 27.7 | 36 | 63.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 28.1 | 31.9 | 60 | 46.8% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 51.3 | 27.6 | 37.4 | 65 | 42.4% | 51.9 | 25.9 | 38.1 | 64 | 40.5% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 52.6 | 28 | 35.8 | 63.8 | 43.9% | 48 | 25.3 | 36.3 | 61.5 | 41.1% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 50.2 | 26.2 | 39.3 | 65.5 | 39.9% | 54.3 | 27.7 | 39.9 | 67.6 | 40.9% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 50.4 | 26.8 | 36.9 | 63.8 | 42.1% | 57.1 | 26.8 | 42.3 | 69.2 | 38.8% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 50.3 | 28.8 | 34.3 | 63 | 45.6% | 53.9 | 28.2 | 39.4 | 67.6 | 41.7% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 49.1 | 24.4 | 36.2 | 60.6 | 40.3% | 51.8 | 30.8 | 35.3 | 66.1 | 46.7% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 54.5 | 32.4 | 33.3 | 65.7 | 49.4% | 44.6 | 19.7 | 41.1 | 60.8 | 32.4% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 52.6 | 27.7 | 40.8 | 68.4 | 40.4% | 57.1 | 30.8 | 42.1 | 72.9 | 42.3% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 45.3 | 23.7 | 33.9 | 57.6 | 41.1% | 56.3 | 27.1 | 42.3 | 69.3 | 39.1% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 47.6 | 25.5 | 35.4 | 60.9 | 41.9% | 51.6 | 26 | 36.3 | 62.3 | 41.7% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 45.8 | 24.2 | 35.9 | 60.1 | 40.2% | 51.5 | 28.9 | 35.3 | 64.2 | 45.1% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 46.8 | 24.4 | 33.8 | 58.3 | 41.9% | 52.1 | 31.6 | 30.6 | 62.2 | 50.8% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 52.3 | 26.1 | 37.1 | 63.2 | 41.3% | 48.5 | 25.5 | 35 | 60.5 | 42.1% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 54.8 | 29.3 | 36.4 | 65.8 | 44.6% | 44.9 | 22 | 37.3 | 59.3 | 37.1% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 58.3 | 33.4 | 36.9 | 70.3 | 47.5% | 43.2 | 21.8 | 34.2 | 56 | 39% |
| WASHINGTON | 48.8 | 25.9 | 33.9 | 59.8 | 43.3% | 52 | 25.8 | 37.7 | 63.4 | 40.6% |
Best of luck with Week 14 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
