Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the thirteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The weeks go trundling on in this hobby of ours and before you know it you’ll be ensconced in your living room roasting chestnuts on an open fire (or whatever Christmas image floats your boat).
Until then, however, there is the small matter of securing a playoff berth. Some of you may have already clinched, but time running out for those on the cusp, this week is crucial. If you’re playing spoiler, don’t do it half- assed. There’s nothing more satisfying than denying a division rival a place at the dance in the final throngs of the act.
Let’s sink our teeth into the matchups for Week 13.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Minnesota front seven vs. Carolina
Maybe the bye week has erased your last memory of the floundering Carolina Panthers offensive line – but it shouldn’t have. This unit has consistently performed poorly this season, giving up 33 sacks at a rate of three per game. Minnesota, while not boasting a dominant front seven, can certainly give the Panthers plenty of problems at home. In fact, the Vikings are third in the league in sacks and rack up an average of 2.8 per game. Everson Griffen and Brian Robison make excellent spot starts in what should be a closely fought game with great pass rush potential.
Houston front seven vs. Tennessee
The Texans apply pressure on an impressive 17.5% of dropbacks. Superstar defender JJ Watt has a lot to do with that number, but the pass rush has been coming from elsewhere and the return of Jadeveon Clowney to full health will only help this unit going forward. Zach Mettenberger has impressed with his ability to push the ball downfield for Tennessee, but his mobility can be exploited by a disciplined pass rushing unit. Take a chance on Houston pass rushers this week.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
St Louis pass rushers vs. Oakland
At first it appeared to be a fluke, but it has become a solid and trustworthy trend this season: the Raiders’ pass protection has been excellent. They still give up a league-low pressure of 6.5% and have surrendered only 11 sacks all season. The Rams’ pass rushers have the potential to explode any time they play on turf at home, but considering how inconsistent they have been as a unit it is hard to trust them. My advice is to stick with the pattern here; bench your Rams unless you have no better options.
Sack Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 13.4% | 2.24 | 5.02 | 37.5 | 13.4% | 2.24 | 5.02 | 37.5 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 11.1% | 1.8 | 4.4 | 39.8 | 16.6% | 1.6 | 6.2 | 37.4 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 9% | 1.3 | 3.3 | 36.5 | 14.1% | 2 | 5.7 | 40.5 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 15.2% | 2.5 | 5.9 | 38.8 | 10.1% | 1.4 | 3.7 | 36.5 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 16.5% | 3.9 | 6.6 | 40 | 15.8% | 2.6 | 6.1 | 38.6 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 11.2% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 38.1 | 13.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 38.5 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 12.5% | 2.2 | 4.4 | 35.1 | 11.3% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 40.6 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.5% | 1.3 | 4.7 | 40.7 | 9.1% | 1.3 | 3 | 33.1 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 10.1% | 1.9 | 3.9 | 38.8 | 12% | 1.5 | 4.1 | 34.2 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 15.6% | 1.6 | 5.4 | 34.6 | 11% | 1.9 | 3.6 | 32.8 |
| DENVER Broncos | 14.2% | 2.7 | 6.4 | 45 | 6.6% | 1.1 | 2.8 | 42.4 |
| DETROIT Lions | 18.7% | 2.6 | 7 | 37.5 | 14.7% | 3.1 | 5.9 | 40.2 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 14.8% | 2.5 | 5.7 | 38.4 | 12% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 35 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 17.5% | 2.1 | 7.3 | 41.6 | 19.7% | 2 | 6 | 30.5 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 38.6 | 14% | 1.5 | 6.3 | 45.1 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.3% | 2.8 | 5.1 | 38.4 | 17.7% | 3.9 | 7 | 39.5 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.2% | 3 | 5.5 | 36.1 | 12.7% | 2.5 | 4 | 31.6 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 12.6% | 3 | 5 | 39.8 | 13.6% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 38.3 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 16.7% | 3 | 6 | 36 | 18.8% | 3.2 | 7 | 37.2 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 11.2% | 2.3 | 4.3 | 38.3 | 12.1% | 1.6 | 4.7 | 39 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 12% | 2.2 | 4.3 | 35.9 | 10.7% | 1.4 | 4.6 | 43.1 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 15.2% | 1.7 | 5.2 | 34.1 | 11.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 39.3 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 16.2% | 2.9 | 5.9 | 36.4 | 17% | 2.7 | 6.3 | 37 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 10.7% | 1 | 3.6 | 33.8 | 6.5% | 1.1 | 2.6 | 40.3 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 12.6% | 3.3 | 5.2 | 41.2 | 9.3% | 1.5 | 4 | 43 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 15.6% | 1.6 | 5.4 | 34.5 | 12.3% | 2.9 | 5 | 40.7 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8.7% | 1.7 | 3.1 | 35.7 | 12.8% | 1.9 | 4.5 | 35.1 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 11.6% | 1.7 | 4.4 | 38 | 13.4% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 35.9 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 12.5% | 1.3 | 4.3 | 34.4 | 15.7% | 2 | 4.9 | 31.2 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 11.6% | 1.9 | 4.1 | 35.3 | 17.5% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 36 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 12.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 37.7 | 18.4% | 2.7 | 6.7 | 36.5 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 12.3% | 2.9 | 4.5 | 36.5 | 16.3% | 2.5 | 5.4 | 33.2 |
| WASHINGTON | 16.1% | 2.5 | 5.6 | 34.8 | 15.5% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 37.4 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
New Orleans defenders at Pittsburgh
A three-game home losing streak will leave a sour taste in the mouth of the Saints players as they travel to the Steel City, but their fortunes may not turn around this week. The Steelers have been money at home and have been an excellent tackle matchup for opposing defenses all year long, allowing 56.3 opportunities per game. The Saints have been subpar defensively and could be in for a long day if the Steelers can establish the ground game. All your Saints make excellent plays this week.
Tampa Bay defenders vs. Cincinnati
The return of Giovani Bernard and the continued strong running of Jeremy Hill will allow the Bengals to play a little ground and pound football in Tampa to wear down a suspect Bucs defense. If that game script comes to pass, the Bucs should see plenty of tackle opportunity (56.2 average this season). This is a simple case of teams going opposite directions; the better team should be able to exert its will here.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Miami defenders at New York Jets
The Jets are a plane wreck right now on offense. It is unclear at this point whether Michael Vick will even start; in reality, it doesn’t matter. The offense showed signs of life against Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago, but has been pedestrian all season. Unless your league awards a higher than average number of points for big plays, my advice would be to bench your tackle-producing Dolphins unless you have no alternatives.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51.3 | 26.9 | 37.5 | 64.4 | 52.4% | 51.3 | 26.9 | 37.5 | 64.4 | 52.4% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 48.4 | 23 | 39.8 | 62.8 | 47.5% | 48.6 | 26 | 37.4 | 63.4 | 53.5% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 53.9 | 30.5 | 36.5 | 67 | 56.6% | 50.5 | 23.3 | 40.5 | 63.8 | 46.1% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.3 | 24.5 | 38.8 | 63.3 | 48.7% | 51.6 | 28.3 | 36.5 | 64.8 | 54.8% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 52.5 | 25.5 | 40 | 65.5 | 48.6% | 49.6 | 24.8 | 38.6 | 63.4 | 50% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 53.3 | 26.8 | 38.1 | 64.9 | 50.3% | 50.7 | 26.4 | 38.5 | 64.8 | 52% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 49.7 | 25.7 | 35.1 | 60.8 | 51.7% | 52 | 24.3 | 40.6 | 64.9 | 46.7% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 56.5 | 31 | 40.7 | 71.7 | 54.9% | 49.8 | 28.9 | 33.1 | 62 | 58% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.1 | 30.9 | 38.8 | 69.7 | 57.1% | 52 | 32.3 | 34.2 | 66.5 | 62.1% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 47.7 | 24.5 | 34.6 | 59.1 | 51.4% | 54.2 | 31.5 | 32.8 | 64.3 | 58.1% |
| DENVER Broncos | 51 | 22.2 | 45 | 67.2 | 43.5% | 52.9 | 24.3 | 42.4 | 66.7 | 45.9% |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.5 | 22.7 | 37.5 | 60.2 | 47.8% | 50.5 | 24.6 | 40.2 | 64.8 | 48.7% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 55.7 | 31.2 | 38.4 | 69.6 | 56% | 48.9 | 25.1 | 35 | 60.1 | 51.3% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 54.3 | 27.6 | 41.6 | 69.2 | 50.8% | 53.3 | 33.5 | 30.5 | 64 | 62.9% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.4 | 24.4 | 38.6 | 63 | 50.4% | 56.2 | 27.2 | 45.1 | 72.3 | 48.4% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54.9 | 29.3 | 38.4 | 67.7 | 53.4% | 48.9 | 23.2 | 39.5 | 62.7 | 47.4% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49 | 25.7 | 36.1 | 61.8 | 52.4% | 51.6 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 61.4 | 57.8% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 49.4 | 24.7 | 39.8 | 64.5 | 50% | 53 | 27.2 | 38.3 | 65.5 | 51.3% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 52.4 | 27.1 | 36 | 63.1 | 51.7% | 48.6 | 25.4 | 37.2 | 62.6 | 52.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 50.2 | 26.1 | 38.3 | 64.4 | 52% | 55.3 | 29.5 | 39 | 68.5 | 53.3% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 49.8 | 26.7 | 35.9 | 62.6 | 53.6% | 57.9 | 27.5 | 43.1 | 70.6 | 47.5% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 50.8 | 29.8 | 34.1 | 63.9 | 58.7% | 52.1 | 27.1 | 39.3 | 66.4 | 52% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 49 | 24.6 | 36.4 | 61 | 50.2% | 52 | 30.2 | 37 | 67.2 | 58.1% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 56.8 | 33.9 | 33.8 | 67.7 | 59.7% | 43 | 18.5 | 40.3 | 58.8 | 43% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 54 | 28.8 | 41.2 | 70 | 53.3% | 54.9 | 28.7 | 43 | 71.7 | 52.3% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 45.3 | 23.5 | 34.5 | 57.9 | 51.8% | 56.3 | 27.5 | 40.7 | 68.2 | 48.8% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 47.6 | 25 | 35.7 | 60.7 | 52.5% | 51.1 | 27.2 | 35.1 | 62.3 | 53.2% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 45.4 | 22.9 | 38 | 60.9 | 50.4% | 52.9 | 30 | 35.9 | 65.9 | 56.7% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.6 | 25.5 | 34.4 | 59.9 | 52.5% | 51.9 | 31.6 | 31.2 | 62.8 | 60.9% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.8 | 27 | 35.3 | 62.3 | 52.1% | 49.8 | 25.6 | 36 | 61.6 | 51.4% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 56.2 | 29.8 | 37.7 | 67.5 | 53% | 44.6 | 21.7 | 36.5 | 58.2 | 48.7% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 57 | 32.7 | 36.5 | 69.2 | 57.4% | 43 | 22.1 | 33.2 | 55.3 | 51.4% |
| WASHINGTON | 49.4 | 26.1 | 34.8 | 60.9 | 52.8% | 52.3 | 26.1 | 37.4 | 63.5 | 49.9% |
In closing, have a safe and happy Thanksgiving with your families! Best of luck with Week 13 and make sure to check
back next week for more matchup analysis as we approach the final furlong of the regular season.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
