Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the twelfth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
If you’ve successfully ridden out the storm of the first 11 weeks and find yourself in the running for a championship, I tip my hat to you. It’s been a trying season to say the least, with injuries testing the depth of our rosters and the strength of our wills.
Now the real test begins; it’s time to go and win a championship. Depending on your league format, you may only have two weeks left to play. Now more than ever, being aware of the matchups and their value is a crucial part to finish strong.
Let’s sink our teeth into the matchups for Week 12.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Buffalo front seven vs. New York Jets
The last meeting between these division rivals yielded five quarterback sacks, six hits and 22 hurries for the Bills’ dominant front as they wreaked havoc in MetLife Stadium on a hapless Jets team. Fresh off a bye, Rex Ryan’s ailing team will be hoping to right the ship in western New York. However, that scenario is difficult to visualise; the Jets are among the league’s worst in QB hits allowed (6.3 per game) and surrender 2.7 sacks per game. The Bills mean business up front. Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams have the potential to take over games. This could be a case of history repeating itself, so don’t hesitate to back your Bills this week in what could be a bonanza of points.
San Francisco front seven vs. Washington
All is not well in the nation’s capital right now, with Robert Griffin III III mouthing off about his teammates and head coach Jay Gruden insisting Griffin needs to worry about himself, not everyone else. This will be music to the ears of the 49ers, whose pass rush has admittedly struggled to get off the ground this season. Thus far, the Niners have applied pressure on a below average 11.6% of dropbacks and have only 1.7 sacks per game. The return of Aldon Smith, who had a quarterback hit and six hurries last week against the Giants, is a nice boost and should free up the likes of promising rookie Aaron Lynch and the disgruntled Ahmad Brooks. This could be a veritable feeding frenzy as the Niners smell blood in the water.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Miami pass rushers at Denver
Panic stations in Denver? Not quite, although the increased pressure on Peyton Manning, combined with the probable loss of a handful of weapons, will worry the home team this week. Miami’s front seven is not to be sniffed at and could give Manning some difficulties, but it is hard to fathom the Broncos - who have only given up pressure on 6.6% of dropbacks - faltering. The Rams debacle will serve as a wake-up call to shore up the protection against a Miami team that has averaged three sacks per game. Against any other team that same production could be relied upon, but against the Broncos it is hard to count on.
Sack Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
2014 NFL Average | 13.4% | 2.24 | 5.02 | 37.5 | 13.4% | 2.24 | 5.02 | 37.5 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 11.1% | 1.8 | 4.4 | 39.8 | 16.6% | 1.6 | 6.2 | 37.4 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 9% | 1.3 | 3.3 | 36.5 | 14.1% | 2 | 5.7 | 40.5 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 15.2% | 2.5 | 5.9 | 38.8 | 10.1% | 1.4 | 3.7 | 36.5 |
BUFFALO Bills | 16.5% | 3.9 | 6.6 | 40 | 15.8% | 2.6 | 6.1 | 38.6 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 11.2% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 38.1 | 13.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 38.5 |
CHICAGO Bears | 12.5% | 2.2 | 4.4 | 35.1 | 11.3% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 40.6 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 11.5% | 1.3 | 4.7 | 40.7 | 9.1% | 1.3 | 3 | 33.1 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 10.1% | 1.9 | 3.9 | 38.8 | 12% | 1.5 | 4.1 | 34.2 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 15.6% | 1.6 | 5.4 | 34.6 | 11% | 1.9 | 3.6 | 32.8 |
DENVER Broncos | 14.2% | 2.7 | 6.4 | 45 | 6.6% | 1.1 | 2.8 | 42.4 |
DETROIT Lions | 18.7% | 2.6 | 7 | 37.5 | 14.7% | 3.1 | 5.9 | 40.2 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 14.8% | 2.5 | 5.7 | 38.4 | 12% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 35 |
HOUSTON Texans | 17.5% | 2.1 | 7.3 | 41.6 | 19.7% | 2 | 6 | 30.5 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 38.6 | 14% | 1.5 | 6.3 | 45.1 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.3% | 2.8 | 5.1 | 38.4 | 17.7% | 3.9 | 7 | 39.5 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.2% | 3 | 5.5 | 36.1 | 12.7% | 2.5 | 4 | 31.6 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 12.6% | 3 | 5 | 39.8 | 13.6% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 38.3 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 16.7% | 3 | 6 | 36 | 18.8% | 3.2 | 7 | 37.2 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 11.2% | 2.3 | 4.3 | 38.3 | 12.1% | 1.6 | 4.7 | 39 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 12% | 2.2 | 4.3 | 35.9 | 10.7% | 1.4 | 4.6 | 43.1 |
NEW YORK Giants | 15.2% | 1.7 | 5.2 | 34.1 | 11.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 39.3 |
NEW YORK Jets | 16.2% | 2.9 | 5.9 | 36.4 | 17% | 2.7 | 6.3 | 37 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 10.7% | 1 | 3.6 | 33.8 | 6.5% | 1.1 | 2.6 | 40.3 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 12.6% | 3.3 | 5.2 | 41.2 | 9.3% | 1.5 | 4 | 43 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 15.6% | 1.6 | 5.4 | 34.5 | 12.3% | 2.9 | 5 | 40.7 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8.7% | 1.7 | 3.1 | 35.7 | 12.8% | 1.9 | 4.5 | 35.1 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 11.6% | 1.7 | 4.4 | 38 | 13.4% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 35.9 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 12.5% | 1.3 | 4.3 | 34.4 | 15.7% | 2 | 4.9 | 31.2 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 11.6% | 1.9 | 4.1 | 35.3 | 17.5% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 36 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 12.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 37.7 | 18.4% | 2.7 | 6.7 | 36.5 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 12.3% | 2.9 | 4.5 | 36.5 | 16.3% | 2.5 | 5.4 | 33.2 |
WASHINGTON | 16.1% | 2.5 | 5.6 | 34.8 | 15.5% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 37.4 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Jacksonville defenders at Indianapolis
With a tackle matchup factor (TMF) of 1.678 in Indianapolis, combined with the fact the Jags average 54.4 tackle opportunities per game, this clash with the Colts looks to be a banker for success. After a hiccup at home against the dominant Patriots, the Colts will be eager to vent their frustrations, and their high-powered offense (averaging 56.2 tackle opportunities allowed per game) should have its way. Don’t get away from a winning formula here; try to insert your Jags into your lineup if possible.
Oakland defenders vs. Kansas City
The Chiefs average 29.8 rushing attempts per game and should be able to have their way with a suspect Raiders front seven in Oakland. There is always the chance a fired-up Raider Nation galvanise the team into an unlikely victory with the game script going the complete opposite direction to expectations, but can we really trust the Raiders? Kansas City’s balance – owing to the play of Jamaal Charles and the offensive line – has been excellent and the Raiders (56.8 TO per game) should be the beneficiaries.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Seattle defenders vs. Arizona
Despite holding a 9-1 record, the Cardinals have not been outstanding on either side of the football and average a mere 48.6 tackle opportunities allowed per game. With Drew Stanton at the helm, that number is more likely to fluctuate week to week. Although Seattle’s defense has taken a significant step back this season, the talent is still there to fluster an inexperienced quarterback like Stanton in a must-win game for Seattle. The Cardinals were the only team to beat the Seahawks at home last year; the home team will be looking to get revenge in what is sure to be a tense matchup. The Cardinals average only 26 rush attempts per game and could find themselves behind in this game. Mainly because I see a step back from Stanton on the horizon, I would find it hard to trust Seattle defenders except in big play heavy leagues.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
2014 NFL Average | 51.3 | 26.9 | 37.5 | 64.4 | 52.4% | 51.3 | 26.9 | 37.5 | 64.4 | 52.4% |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 48.4 | 23 | 39.8 | 62.8 | 47.5% | 48.6 | 26 | 37.4 | 63.4 | 53.5% |
ATLANTA Falcons | 53.9 | 30.5 | 36.5 | 67 | 56.6% | 50.5 | 23.3 | 40.5 | 63.8 | 46.1% |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.3 | 24.5 | 38.8 | 63.3 | 48.7% | 51.6 | 28.3 | 36.5 | 64.8 | 54.8% |
BUFFALO Bills | 52.5 | 25.5 | 40 | 65.5 | 48.6% | 49.6 | 24.8 | 38.6 | 63.4 | 50% |
CAROLINA Panthers | 53.3 | 26.8 | 38.1 | 64.9 | 50.3% | 50.7 | 26.4 | 38.5 | 64.8 | 52% |
CHICAGO Bears | 49.7 | 25.7 | 35.1 | 60.8 | 51.7% | 52 | 24.3 | 40.6 | 64.9 | 46.7% |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 56.5 | 31 | 40.7 | 71.7 | 54.9% | 49.8 | 28.9 | 33.1 | 62 | 58% |
CLEVELAND Browns | 54.1 | 30.9 | 38.8 | 69.7 | 57.1% | 52 | 32.3 | 34.2 | 66.5 | 62.1% |
DALLAS Cowboys | 47.7 | 24.5 | 34.6 | 59.1 | 51.4% | 54.2 | 31.5 | 32.8 | 64.3 | 58.1% |
DENVER Broncos | 51 | 22.2 | 45 | 67.2 | 43.5% | 52.9 | 24.3 | 42.4 | 66.7 | 45.9% |
DETROIT Lions | 47.5 | 22.7 | 37.5 | 60.2 | 47.8% | 50.5 | 24.6 | 40.2 | 64.8 | 48.7% |
GREEN BAY Packers | 55.7 | 31.2 | 38.4 | 69.6 | 56% | 48.9 | 25.1 | 35 | 60.1 | 51.3% |
HOUSTON Texans | 54.3 | 27.6 | 41.6 | 69.2 | 50.8% | 53.3 | 33.5 | 30.5 | 64 | 62.9% |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.4 | 24.4 | 38.6 | 63 | 50.4% | 56.2 | 27.2 | 45.1 | 72.3 | 48.4% |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54.9 | 29.3 | 38.4 | 67.7 | 53.4% | 48.9 | 23.2 | 39.5 | 62.7 | 47.4% |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49 | 25.7 | 36.1 | 61.8 | 52.4% | 51.6 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 61.4 | 57.8% |
MIAMI Dolphins | 49.4 | 24.7 | 39.8 | 64.5 | 50% | 53 | 27.2 | 38.3 | 65.5 | 51.3% |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 52.4 | 27.1 | 36 | 63.1 | 51.7% | 48.6 | 25.4 | 37.2 | 62.6 | 52.3% |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 50.2 | 26.1 | 38.3 | 64.4 | 52% | 55.3 | 29.5 | 39 | 68.5 | 53.3% |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 49.8 | 26.7 | 35.9 | 62.6 | 53.6% | 57.9 | 27.5 | 43.1 | 70.6 | 47.5% |
NEW YORK Giants | 50.8 | 29.8 | 34.1 | 63.9 | 58.7% | 52.1 | 27.1 | 39.3 | 66.4 | 52% |
NEW YORK Jets | 49 | 24.6 | 36.4 | 61 | 50.2% | 52 | 30.2 | 37 | 67.2 | 58.1% |
OAKLAND Raiders | 56.8 | 33.9 | 33.8 | 67.7 | 59.7% | 43 | 18.5 | 40.3 | 58.8 | 43% |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 54 | 28.8 | 41.2 | 70 | 53.3% | 54.9 | 28.7 | 43 | 71.7 | 52.3% |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 45.3 | 23.5 | 34.5 | 57.9 | 51.8% | 56.3 | 27.5 | 40.7 | 68.2 | 48.8% |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 47.6 | 25 | 35.7 | 60.7 | 52.5% | 51.1 | 27.2 | 35.1 | 62.3 | 53.2% |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 45.4 | 22.9 | 38 | 60.9 | 50.4% | 52.9 | 30 | 35.9 | 65.9 | 56.7% |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.6 | 25.5 | 34.4 | 59.9 | 52.5% | 51.9 | 31.6 | 31.2 | 62.8 | 60.9% |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.8 | 27 | 35.3 | 62.3 | 52.1% | 49.8 | 25.6 | 36 | 61.6 | 51.4% |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 56.2 | 29.8 | 37.7 | 67.5 | 53% | 44.6 | 21.7 | 36.5 | 58.2 | 48.7% |
TENNESSEE Titans | 57 | 32.7 | 36.5 | 69.2 | 57.4% | 43 | 22.1 | 33.2 | 55.3 | 51.4% |
WASHINGTON | 49.4 | 26.1 | 34.8 | 60.9 | 52.8% | 52.3 | 26.1 | 37.4 | 63.5 | 49.9% |
Best of luck with Week 12 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.