Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the tenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Do you feel that? Winter is in the air. The evenings are getting shorter, the winds are biting stronger and fantasy playoffs are just around the corner.
No better time to introduce a new tool for you hardcore IDP owners here at Footballguys, then.
The mastermind behind the weekly IDP spreadsheets that you all know and love, Larry Thomas, has concocted a formula to weigh up how strong a tackle matchup is, taking into account stadium stat crews, as well as tackle opportunity allowed and accrued data. It is a useful tool that will help everyone brave the elements to reach the playoff pinnacle.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 10.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Philadelphia pass rushers vs. Carolina
Sometimes you have to eschew the numbers and go with the eye test; my eye test tells me the Carolina Panthers can’t protect the passer. While the probable return of RG Trai Turner and LT Byron Bell would be a boost, it is hard to trust a unit that has given up 10 sacks in the past three games. The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Nick Foles, ostensibly putting more pressure on their defense to answer the bell. The home team ranks in the top 10 in sacks, and produces 3.8 sacks per game at home, a chilling statistic for Cam Newton to swallow. Despite not getting much recognition this season, Philadelphia’s pass rush has been solid behind the work of Trent Cole, Connor Barwin, Mychal Kendricks and Brandon Graham. The take home message is: don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Plug in your Eagles this week.
Kansas City pass rushers at Buffalo
In a de facto AFC playoffs elimination game, two wildcard contenders go head to head on what should be a frigid day in Buffalo. The forecast calls for rain and possibly snow flurries, so this might be a grind-it-out type of contest. The get-off of the pass rushers could be affected, but it is hard not to put your faith in dynamic duo Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. The Chiefs have applied heat on 16.2% of opponent dropbacks, with an impressive 3.4 sacks per game and 5.6 hits per game. Meanwhile, the Bills are among the worst in terms of pressure allowed (18.6% of dropbacks). Since Kyle Orton has taken over as starting quarterback, the Bills have allowed at least two sacks per game. A sneaky upside play in this game could be rookie Dee Ford.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Seattle pass rushers vs. New York Giants
It has become quickly apparent that this Seahawks defense ain’t what she used to be, with pass rush, or lack thereof, the main culprit. The Seahawks have only 11 sacks this season and the vaunted 12th Man have not exerted their usual influence on games. The visiting Giants have held up well against the pass rush, allowing pressure on only 9.7% of dropbacks. Any time the Seahawks play at home there is a chance of fireworks and a meltdown by the visiting team, but until they show us something different it is hard to trust a turnaround. The best play is to sit your Seahawks pass rushers for now.
Sack Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 13.2% | 2.24 | 4.96 | 37.5 | 13.2% | 2.24 | 4.96 | 37.5 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 7.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 41 | 16.1% | 1.6 | 6 | 37.3 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 7.2% | 0.9 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 15% | 2.1 | 6.1 | 40.8 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 14.3% | 2.2 | 5.7 | 39.6 | 10.4% | 1.4 | 3.9 | 37.4 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 15.3% | 3.5 | 6.3 | 40.8 | 18.6% | 2.9 | 6.9 | 37 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 12.3% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 37 | 13.1% | 2.4 | 4.9 | 37.2 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 11.8% | 2.5 | 4.3 | 36.1 | 11% | 2.5 | 4.4 | 39.9 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 12% | 1.6 | 5.1 | 42.9 | 8.6% | 1.3 | 2.9 | 33.4 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 10.4% | 2.1 | 4.1 | 39.6 | 13.1% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 33.4 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 15.7% | 1.3 | 5.3 | 33.9 | 11% | 2 | 3.7 | 33.2 |
| DENVER Broncos | 15.4% | 3 | 7.1 | 46.4 | 6.6% | 1.1 | 2.6 | 39.9 |
| DETROIT Lions | 18.5% | 2.9 | 7 | 37.8 | 13.6% | 3 | 5.5 | 40.4 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 16% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 12.9% | 2.6 | 4.5 | 34.9 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 18.6% | 2.1 | 7.6 | 40.6 | 21.1% | 2.2 | 6.4 | 30.6 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 13.2% | 2.7 | 5.2 | 39.6 | 13.9% | 1.6 | 6.3 | 45.7 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 13.5% | 3 | 5.3 | 39.4 | 18.1% | 3.9 | 7.1 | 39.3 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 16.2% | 3.4 | 5.6 | 34.8 | 11.3% | 2.4 | 3.8 | 33.1 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 12.5% | 3.1 | 4.9 | 39 | 12.2% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 37.9 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 17% | 3.3 | 6 | 35.2 | 18.7% | 3.3 | 7.1 | 38 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 10.8% | 2.4 | 4.1 | 38.1 | 11.4% | 1.8 | 4.6 | 40 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 11.7% | 2.1 | 4.4 | 37.5 | 10.3% | 1.5 | 4.4 | 42.6 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 15.5% | 1.8 | 5.6 | 36.4 | 9.7% | 2.3 | 3.6 | 37.5 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 16.4% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 35.2 | 15.7% | 2.8 | 6.1 | 38.9 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 11.5% | 1 | 3.6 | 31.6 | 6.3% | 1.1 | 2.5 | 40 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 12.3% | 2.9 | 5 | 40.5 | 10.1% | 1.4 | 4.4 | 43.1 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 13.7% | 1.8 | 5.1 | 37.2 | 11% | 2.6 | 4.4 | 40.4 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8.7% | 1.7 | 3.1 | 35.7 | 13% | 1.9 | 4.6 | 35 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 10.2% | 1.6 | 3.6 | 35.5 | 14% | 3.4 | 5.1 | 36.5 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 12.1% | 1.4 | 4.3 | 35.3 | 13.5% | 2 | 4.4 | 32.4 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 11.1% | 1.8 | 3.5 | 31.6 | 17.1% | 3 | 6.3 | 36.5 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 11.4% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 38.4 | 17.4% | 2.6 | 6.4 | 36.6 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 11.7% | 2.9 | 4.4 | 37.5 | 14.9% | 2.5 | 5.1 | 34.5 |
| WASHINGTON | 15.5% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 35.9 | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 37.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
New York Jets defenders vs. Pittsburgh
You would have to have been living under a rock for the past few weeks to not know that the Steelers offense is humming right now. Ben Roethlisberger has developed a rapport with his young receiving options that makes the Steelers offense very difficult to defend. The Jets have been abysmal against the pass this year and stand little chance in this game, but that doesn’t mean we can’t mine value from it. The Pittsburgh offense allows 56.2 tackle opportunities per game, more than enough for the Jets to prosper. Add in the fact that Larry Thomas’ new metric puts this tackle matchup at 1.875 (excellent) and it is a no-brainer. Plug in your Jets defenders and don’t think twice about it.
San Francisco defenders at New Orleans
In the first of a three-game home stand for the Saints, the reeling Niners are the visitors. The Saints are a perfect 3-0 at home this season and last time we saw them in the Superdome they dispatched the Packers handily. The Niners will have similar issues coping with a rejuvenated Drew Brees. The new TMF metric ranks this as a good matchup for the Niners, who are among the league’s worst in tackle opportunity. Don’t let that deter you, however; the Saints have allowed 60, 64 and 60 tackle opportunities respectively in their opening three home tilts. My advice is not to overthink this one: trust your Niners defenders to deliver.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Dallas defenders vs. Jacksonville (in London)
We’ve seen slight improvement in Jacksonville’s offense, but can we really get behind them in a game that is a home game in name only across the pond? My gut feeling is no, especially considering they have allowed only 48.8 tackle opportunities per game to opposing defenses. Blake Bortles is still exhibiting moments of madness in his play and, more than anything, Dallas should be able to control this game – even if Brandon Weeden gets the nod. The smart play is to sit your Dallas defenders if you have better options on this trying bye week.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| LEAGUE AVG | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | ||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | |
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51.3 | 26.8 | 37.5 | 64.3 | 52.2% | 51.3 | 26.8 | 37.5 | 64.3 | 52.2% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 49.8 | 23.6 | 41 | 64.6 | 47.5% | 48.3 | 26.5 | 37.3 | 63.8 | 54.9% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 54.4 | 32.1 | 34.9 | 67 | 59.1% | 49.5 | 22.3 | 40.8 | 63 | 44.9% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.1 | 24.8 | 39.6 | 64.3 | 48.5% | 51.7 | 27.7 | 37.4 | 65.1 | 53.5% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 52.9 | 25.9 | 40.8 | 66.6 | 48.9% | 50.1 | 25.9 | 37 | 62.9 | 51.6% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 53.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 50.8% | 49.1 | 25.9 | 37.2 | 63.1 | 52.7% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 51.3 | 26.1 | 36.1 | 62.3 | 51% | 50.9 | 23.5 | 39.9 | 63.4 | 46.2% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 54.9 | 29 | 42.9 | 71.9 | 52.8% | 51 | 28.9 | 33.4 | 62.3 | 56.6% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 53.8 | 29.1 | 39.6 | 68.8 | 54.2% | 50.9 | 30.9 | 33.4 | 64.3 | 60.7% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 47.4 | 24.6 | 33.9 | 58.4 | 51.8% | 54.4 | 31.7 | 33.2 | 64.9 | 58.2% |
| DENVER Broncos | 51.1 | 21.8 | 46.4 | 68.1 | 42.5% | 52.9 | 25.8 | 39.9 | 65.6 | 48.7% |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.4 | 22.8 | 37.8 | 60.5 | 48% | 51.9 | 26 | 40.4 | 66.4 | 50.1% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 55.8 | 32.1 | 36.6 | 68.8 | 57.6% | 48.5 | 24.3 | 34.9 | 59.1 | 50% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 55.2 | 27.9 | 40.6 | 68.4 | 50.5% | 51 | 31.2 | 30.6 | 61.8 | 61.2% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 46.7 | 22.1 | 39.6 | 61.7 | 47.4% | 57.9 | 28.3 | 45.7 | 74 | 48.9% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.2 | 29.2 | 39.4 | 68.7 | 52.9% | 48.8 | 23.1 | 39.3 | 62.4 | 47.4% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 47.4 | 24.8 | 34.8 | 59.5 | 52.2% | 53.5 | 30.5 | 33.1 | 63.6 | 57% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 50.3 | 26.1 | 39 | 65.1 | 52% | 53.3 | 28.6 | 37.9 | 66.5 | 53.8% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.3 | 26.7 | 35.2 | 61.9 | 51.9% | 50 | 26.4 | 38 | 64.4 | 52.9% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 51.2 | 27.1 | 38.1 | 65.2 | 52.9% | 54.3 | 27.8 | 40 | 67.8 | 51.1% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 49.4 | 24.9 | 37.5 | 62.4 | 50.4% | 57.4 | 27.3 | 42.6 | 69.9 | 47.5% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 49.8 | 27 | 36.4 | 63.4 | 54.3% | 53.5 | 29.1 | 37.5 | 66.6 | 54.4% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 48.8 | 25.4 | 35.2 | 60.7 | 52.2% | 52.4 | 29.6 | 38.9 | 68.4 | 56.4% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 56.5 | 35 | 31.6 | 66.6 | 61.9% | 43.5 | 18.9 | 40 | 58.9 | 43.4% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 53 | 28.9 | 40.5 | 69.4 | 54.5% | 55.6 | 29 | 43.1 | 72.1 | 52.1% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 46.7 | 23 | 37.2 | 60.2 | 49.3% | 56.2 | 27.7 | 40.4 | 68.1 | 49.2% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 48.8 | 25.7 | 35.7 | 61.3 | 52.6% | 50.6 | 26.7 | 35 | 61.7 | 52.7% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 43.5 | 22.1 | 35.5 | 57.6 | 50.9% | 53.3 | 28.9 | 36.5 | 65.4 | 54.2% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.6 | 26 | 35.3 | 61.3 | 52.4% | 50.4 | 29.3 | 32.4 | 61.6 | 58.1% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 52.4 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 61.4 | 56.8% | 49.6 | 25.1 | 36.5 | 61.6 | 50.6% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 56.6 | 29.9 | 38.4 | 68.3 | 52.8% | 44.3 | 21.6 | 36.6 | 58.3 | 48.9% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 57.1 | 32.1 | 37.5 | 69.6 | 56.2% | 44.6 | 23 | 34.5 | 57.5 | 51.5% |
| WASHINGTON | 50.7 | 26.7 | 35.9 | 62.6 | 52.6% | 51.4 | 25.6 | 37.3 | 62.9 | 49.7% |
Best of luck with Week 10 and please note that the column will be on a break next week as I will be taking a few days' leave.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
