After a Week 4 defeat to the Miami Dolphins in London, the Oakland Raiders became the first team to fire their head coach during the year. The Raiders had already benched their intended starting quarterback late in the preseason, but they weren't the first team to bench their starting quarterback during the regular season. Instead, that honor falls to the Buffalo Bills.
Despite investing a first round pick in him a little more than 12 months ago, Head Coach Doug Marrone decided to pull the plug on EJ Manuel as the team's starter. Manuel had an abysmal display in Week 4 against the Houston Texans after bein unimpressive through the first three weeks. Manuel simply wasn't aggressive enough, smart enough or accurate enough to effectively run the Bills offense. Now, with their youngster sidelined, the Bills are turning to an old head at quarterback, former Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys player Kyle Orton.
Orton hasn't started eight games in a season since 2011. Even then he started five games for one team and three for another after being benched in favor of Tim Tebow.
Although it seems like a major knock against Orton that he was benched for a quarterback who quickly flamed out of the NFL, he proved after being released that season that he could still be an effective player in the right situation. Orton has limited arm talent and he isn't exceptionally mobile. If he is to be a successful starter, he must rely on his intelligence and short throw accuracy. Fortunately for him, that may be all that the Bills need from their quarterback spot, as the team has a plethora of difference-makers on the offensive side of the ball and a defense that has made a very impressive start to the season.
Despite repeatedly missing opportunities to find open receivers in space, Manuel managed to register more than 200 yards in three of his first four games this season. He also has six total touchdowns, with three interceptions and one fumble. The cavaet to take from these numbers, is that they had little to do with the quality of Manuel's play.
The Bills don't have a first round pick next year and Orton is 31 years of age. They made the change for a couple of reasons, desperation likely being the greatest, but this isn't a poor decision to make because the roster is set up well to be successful now. Furthermore, it's set up well to create easy offense around the quarterback position. The explosiveness of C.J. Spiller combined with the brash running ability of Fred Jackson makes the unit a run-first offense, while the versatility of the team's receivers, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Mike Wiliams, means that the offense can be effective without making too many overly stressful plays at the quarterback position.
What the Bills need from Orton is consistency. They need him to consistently find their receivers when they are open without forcing them to make difficult adjustments. Orton should be able to do this and if he can, he will become a fantasy relevant option.
This play from last week's game against the Houston Texans is a great example of a minor change that can make a major difference for Orton against Manuel. On this play, Watkins runs a slant route against Johnathan Joseph. He gets a step on the defensive back, while the underneath coverage over the middle has been drawn forward because of the threat of the run. This leaves Watkins in space, running into even more space. Watkins is exceptionally good with the ball in his hands because of his ability to evade or run over defensive backs. His speed should allow him to gain at least seven or eight yards on this play, if not many more.
Instead of throwing the ball in front of Watkins where he can catch it in stride, Manuel forces his receiver to adjust to it by throwing the ball low and behind him. This wasn't a difficult throw to make and it could have resulted in a good gain.
Manuel threw the ball to the red X on the above image. Orton doesn't need to do anything dramatically different, he just needs to push it slightly further out so it lands closert ot he green tick. Any pass in that general area gives Watkins the opportunity to catch the ball without breaking stride or turning away from the end zone.
Watkins is an incredible talent. He isn't a huge receiver, but he is essentially always open because of his catch radius and quickness with his acceleration. In Week 4 he had three plays that could be considered drops, but each came on poor throws from Manuel. Those plays weren't the only ones the quarterback put his fingerprints on, as Manuel failed to find Watkins wide open on a deep crossing route on the above play. Overthrowing Watkins here is the kind of action that can have a huge impact on the rest of the game.
Manuel's accuracy was a major problem, but so was his decision-making.
On this play, we can see that Manuel has a wide open receiver on an underneath crossing route for what would be a simple first down. Instead of simply pitching the ball out to that receiver in space, Manuel forces a very poor pass to a receiver in a tight window over the middle of the field. He was very fortunate that his pass wasn't intercepted, because it's rare that you can float an inaccurate pass to that area without a defender reading the quarterback or reacting to the ball.
Orton's last regular season game came in Week 17 of last season. He started for the Dallas Cowboys in place of Tony Romo in a decisive game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Orton threw a late interception to seal a Cowboys loss, but more importantly for the Bills, he showed off his ability on a number of occasions.
While the idea that more experience always brings more intelligence is flawed, Orton is a veteran player who has shown off that comfort level when it comes to reading coverages. He may not be as consistent with it as the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he is a significant improvement over Manuel. On this Second-and-5 play, Orton immediately recognizes that the outside linebacker has turned downfield with the slot receiver. Therefore, he knows that nobody will be able to get to his running back before his back gets a first down based on the defense's alignment at the snap.
It's a very simple throw, but it gives the offense easy yardage and extends the drive.
Theoretically, Orton should make Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller more effective as receivers. As this play highlights, Orton is willing to check the ball down in space when he understands that it his best option. Before the snap on this play, he shows a calm demeanour to survey the defense before identifying the edge rusher coming off his slot receiver. When Orton gets the ball, he initially reads behind that blitzer to see if he has a quick option in space. His tight end that the rusher was initially lined up over is running an out route, but he is picked up by another defender.
Because Orton understands how to read coverages and is calm in the pocket, he is able to bring his eyes back to the middle of the field where DeMarco Murray is wide open. He comfortably checks the ball down to Murray with his high release, allowing the back to find his way forward in a vast amount of space for 18 yards.
Orton threw 46 passes in this game and completed 30 of them. Five of those completions went to Murray, while 12 more went to Witten. Both players were targetted on many more occasions, while Dez Bryant added in eight receptions for just 99 yards. There is no doubt that Orton is a very cautious quarterback, but he isn't completely inept at throwing the ball down the field when he decides to.
On this play, Orton locates Terrance Williams running deep down the middle of the field. Williams is a speedster who needs the vertical ball to reach his full potential. Even though Orton underthrows this pass, he still locates the right matchup and gives his receiver a chance at making a play on the ball. Williams happily obliges for a big gain. Now, this play wasn't perfect, but in comparison to what Manuel has been providing the Bills' receivers with, it's most certainly a significant upgrade.
Even though Orton can throw the ball down the field, big plays will largely come as a result of his quick decisions at the snap and accuracy to find receivers in space.
It doesn't make sense for the Bills to ask Orton to do anything other than this, especially because that is how they were running their offense with Manuel. Manuel was incapable of servicing his talented supporting cast, whereas Orton should be able to. That will largely help Watkins, Woods, Spiller and Jackson, whereas Williams may lose some potential for production because there should be fewer opportunities to extend plays and throw the ball down the field. The kind of play Williams scored his touchdown on last week.
That's not to say Williams becomes redundant. Orton can still make use of a jump ball receiver and Williams has the talent to run underneath routes effectively also.
Orton is about to take the field, but a handful of other quarterbacks made their debuts in Week 4. One of those players was a second-year starter, Mike Glennon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Glennon wasn't spectacular, but he was clearly a better option than the player he replaced, Josh McCown, and he showed last season that he can improve as the season develops. He may have a limited ceiling, but the potential for production with the weapons around him makes him an intriguing prospect at this stage.
The two other players who made their seasonal debuts were Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles.
Bridgewater was incredible. He showed the poise and intelligence of a veteran, with the athleticism to extend plays, scramble for scores and make any throw asked of him. Bridgewater's control and accuracy was exceptional. His only real concern was his deep passing ability, while another concern for his production was how much the Vikings intend on running the football. While Bridgewater is the calm and controlled quarterback, Blake Bortles is a little bit more of a varient.
Bortles' accuracy wasn't overly impressive as he continuously forced his receivers to make unnecessary adjustments on the ball. He also showed off some rookie traits where he was too slow diagnosing coverages. One of those plays led to an easy interception for Brandon Flowers. Nonetheless, Bortles also showed off a number of positives as he was strong in the pocket and made some big throws that Chad Henne never could.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
Andrew Luck's numbers have been phenomenal over the past two weeks, but his play has been even better. The Colts are still running that putrid offense that puts Luck behind the down-and-distance on a regular basis, but Luck just continues to erase those problems in difficult situations. Despite completing over 70 percent of his passes for the second week in a row, he regularly threw accurately under pressure and saw his receivers drop a number of passes.
Defenses have figured out the Philadelphia Eagles....to an extend. Over the past two weeks, both the Washington and San Francisco 49ers defenses have completely focused on stopping the run, forcing Nick Foles to beat them throwing the ball. Foles hasn't been able to because of his own inability from cluttered pockets and inconsistent accuracy. While the Eagles get Lane Johnson back this week and they can move Todd Herremans back to his regular right guard spot because of that, I'm not so sure their woes are about to be fixed so easily.
With that said, the Eagles face the St. Louis Rams and their linebackers this week, which should be a problematic matchup for the Rams.
Cam Newton doesn't look healthy. The Carolina Panthers quarterback is still able to be effective from the pocket, but without his mobility, he is incapable of masking the problems of the offense around him. Whether it is his ankle or his ribs, Newton isn't moving comfortably and it's something that must be monitored as the season develops.
Larry Donnell was the star of Thursday Night Football last week. Donnell doesn't appear to have a high ceiling as an individual player, but he is Eli Manning's most reliable target until Odell Beckham Jrgets healthy. Donnell understands where he needs to be and he has reliable hands to consistently catch the ball in different situations. That alone makes him a viable option moving forward in the Giants offense.
Antonio Brown is essentially uncoverable right now. He had a pair of drops against the Buccaneers last week and one of his touchdowns should have been ruled out for pass interference, but the receiver is reaching his peak of performance. The one concern for Brown's big plays is that Ben Roethlisberger's deep accuracy is bad and Kelvin Beachum is having major struggles at left tackle. Beachum gave up three sacks in the first half of last week's game. The young player isn't really at fault, he's simply been miscast as a starting left tackle when he needs to be developing as a backup guard.
