Welcome to Week 14 of The Docket, a weekly column that will highlight rule and policy issues effecting players as well as offer strategy and advice on a select few players that you should be targeting or avoiding.
ON THE STAND
This is where we look at issues that could have an impact on your season.
Defensive Holding/Illegal Contact Penalties – We have been keeping a close eye on the effects of the new Defensive Holding and Illegal Contact rules that were put in place this past off-season. Defensive player’s are no longer allowed to contact a receiver five yards off the line of scrimmage and tugging a players jersey is also no longer allowed.
According to the NFL statistics there have been already 87 Illegal Contact (IC) penalties called through 12 weeks this year compared to only 38 called last season, and that includes the playoffs. When all is said and done, there very well may be four to five times as many IC called this year . There have also been 172 defensive holding penalties this season through 12 weeks compared to 181 defensive penalties called all last season, including the playoffs. So a lot more flags are being thrown every game.
So how has this affected scoring? While the average total points scored per team is roughly the same as it was last season, there are far more passing touchdowns being thrown than rushing ones. So these new rules seem to be having at least some impact. What does this mean for your fantasy team? It means receivers are gaining value at the expense of running backs, keep this in mind when trading during the off-season and when slotting in your players this year during the playoffs. In daily fantasy leagues, it is also some reason to lean towards those stud WRs.
Ray Rice (RB) – Rice won his appeal and has been reinstated by the league, that’s the good news. The bad news for Rice is whether or not a team is willing to pick him up this year. Rice’s talent certainly seemed to be on the decline last season, although he showed up to camp this year looking much more in shape and reports on him were all positive. There is always a chance Rice gets picked up and plays again this year, but being Week 14, it is more likely that his talents will help a real life NFL team in the playoffs and not your team in the Fantasy playoffs. In Dynasty leagues, Rice will be 28 next year, so he should still have some tread left on his tires, especially after sitting out this whole year, so he is certainly worth a speculative add.
Adrian Peterson (RB) – Just because Rice won his appeal, don’t expect the same for Peterson. The problem he faces is that the Viking’s top brass don’t seem so keen on having him back. At the very least, they certainly are not pushing the league to reinstate him and Commissioner Goodell doesn’t seem eager to force him on them with only four games remaining on their season. His appeals hearing concluded today, and the ruling is to come “as soon as practicable after the conclusion of the hearing.” All indications are that AP is done for the year and even if he is reinstated by some chance, I doubt the Viking’s will even play him. More likely, he will be reinstated during the off-season and traded to a team for a mid to late round pick. In dynasty leagues, despite his age, AP could certainly have a few more productive seasons left; he is truly one of the most gifted running backs to ever play the game.
Duron Carter (WR) – Carter is the son of Hall of Fame receiver Chris Carter, and just like his dad, he has tons of talent. Unfortunately, also like his dad’s early years, he has had tons of disciplinary issues as well. Carter is 6’5” with 4.49 forty speed and good hands. Now 23 years old, he also seems to have his life on track after dominating this past season in the CFL. In fact, Montreal Alouettes GM Jim Popp said he expects Carter to be a "highly, highly sought after" NFL prospect when eligible for the NFL next offseason. If you are still able to pick up players in dynasty leagues, and he is actually listed, he is a good guy to grab.
GUILTY AS CHARGED
This is where we look at select players who should not be on your roster.
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Min) – Patterson played only 3 snaps this past week against a horrible Panthers defense. One more time … THREE SNAPS. If you still have hope for him to emerge this season, you probably have been eliminated already. Could he emerge next year, possibly. But remember, a new crop of WRs comes into the league every year, so there is no reason to hold him over other possible talents. The same can be said for Justin Hunter, who also attended Tennessee University. They must not be teaching route running there.
CASE PENDING
This is where we look at select players who are on the verge of an upgrade or downgrade.
Donte Moncrief (WR, Indy) – Moncrief is 6’2”, 221 pounds, ran a 4.4 forty, has a 39.5” vertical and 132 broad jump. This pre-season, Greg Cosell compared him to Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas. This past week he went 3/134/2 and played on 55% of the Colts plays while Hakeem Nicks only played on 31%. The problem is that Reggie Wayne is still a starter and Coby Fleener has been soaking up targets the past two weeks. So while Moncrief is the future, he is still a risky play for the rest of this year unless they make the switch. He’s a must own at this point, and offers insane upside, but he also comes with big weekly risk to get you a big zero.
Kendall Wright (WR, Tenn) - Wright is a supremely talented wide receiver stuck on a team with very inconsistent and rudimentary quarterback play. However, he is the team’s main receiver, especially with Justin Hunter sidelined for the rest of the season. This past week Wright went 9/132/1 and Tennessee has a very easy schedule for the Fantasy playoffs with home games against the Giants and Jets and then an away game against the lowly Jags. His schedule can’t get any easier, but it all depends on his QB play. After Zach Mettenberger went out with a shoulder injury, Jake Locker came in and threw 3 picks. The good news is that Mettenberger said after Sunday's loss to Houston that he plans to play in Week 14 against the Giants. This is something to watch, but particularly PPR leagues, Wright just may be the WR3 to win you your championship.
Coby Fleener & Dwayne Allen (TE, Indy) – Fleener has been a beast on the box score for the past two weeks, helping a number of Fantasy teams make the playoffs. Unfortunately Colts Coach, Chuck Pagano, said that Dwayne Allen would return this week. The Colts also waived TE Wesley Saunders on Tuesday; so it looks like that actually may be the case. If so, Fleener’s value takes a major hit, but Allen’s shoots way up.
CASE DISMISSED
This is where we highlight players that are looking particularly good.
Kenny Stills (WR, NO) – Stills has emerged as Drew Brees’ top receiver after Brandin Cooks went out for the season with injury. This week he went 5/162/1 and looked good doing it, working all over the field. In fact, no other Saints receiver had over 20 yards. While Jimmy Graham won’t be held without a catch again (more on that below), Stills’ is a high WR3 with high WR2 upside for the playoffs, especially considering the Saints easy schedule: Car, @Chi, Atl.
Keenan Allen (WR, SD) and Julio Jones (WR, ATL) – Both of these players were drafted in the first two rounds of most Fantasy drafts and both have killed Fantasy owners for a good part of the season. In fact, if you drafted them and are still in contention, you should be thrilled. If you drafted them and your are out of the playoffs, don’t blame yourself, it happens.
Allen just had his best game of the season going 11/121/2 this past week. He has also caught more passes this season (72) then he did all of last season (71) and has been a top-10 fantasy WR since Week 8. He is also the 7th most targets receiver in the NFL. So Allen is rolling and Rivers is feeding him, however (yes there is always a however), San Diego plays the Patriots, the Broncos and the 49ers over the next three weeks. That is as tough a schedule as it comes, so while he is very tough to bench at the moment, keep your expectations slightly in check and nobody would blame you for going with another solid option, such as Kenny Stills.
Julio on the other hand has now scored on back-to-back weeks and just beasted for 10/189/2 this past week on a very tough Arizona secondary. And unlike Allen, he has a decent playoff schedule with Green Bay, Pittsburgh and New Orleans on tap. It’s go big or go home time, so keep starting Julio.
THOUGHTS FROM THE BENCH
Here is where we highlight situations or strategies that are worth monitoring.
Jimmy Graham (TE, NO) – Jimmy Graham absolutely killed teams this week by posting a goose egg. Not one catch. In fact, he didn’t even have a target. But don’t worry; Jimmy Graham is too talented and too dominant of a player to be kept down for more than a random game here and there. Case in point, last season Graham destroyed teams in Week 15 by going 2/25, but he followed that up the next two weeks going 5/73/1 and 5/71/1. What’s more, he has a very easy schedule down the stretch with Car, Chi, ATL, TB on tap. So if you were lucky to survive the destruction, feel good about him going forward.
Final Stretch – Here are some running and passing teams that are looking good for the final run:
RUNNING
New Orleans Saints – Car, @Chi, and Atl is a great final stretch run for Mark Ingram.
Cleveland Browns – Ind, Cin, and @Car. Isaiah Crowell could lead you to a championship.
Carolina Panthers – It’s hard to trust anyone on this team, but @NO, TB, and Cle is a good schedule if you need Jonathan Stewart.
Pittsburgh Steelers – LeVeon Bell should be more than fine against @Cin, @Atl, and vs. KC.
Detroit Lions – The only buzz kill here is a potential RBBC if Reggie Bush returns. Otherwise TB, Min, and @Chi is a great schedule for this running game.
PASSING
Atlanta Falcons – @GB, Pit, and @NO. Once again, start Julio Jones, maybe even Harry Douglas if Roddy White remains out.
Jacksonville Jaguars – If you need to reach for a WR like Marqise Lee or even Allen Hurns, they have Hou, @Bal, and Ten, which isn’t horrible.
Dallas Cowboys –They have @Chi, @Phi, and Ind, so looking pretty good.
New York Giants – Great matchup’s the next two weeks @Ten and vs. Was.
St. Louis Rams – Great matchup this week @Was, and a solid one in Week Sixteen vs. NYG. Arizona in week 15 could be tough, but AZ did just lose Tyrann Mathieu.
Detroit Lions – vs. TB, Min, and @Chi. Now healthy, this passing game should be rolling.
Tennessee Titans – If Zach Mettenberger plays, there is some hope with NYG, NYJ, and @Jac on tap.
Miami Dolphins – Bal this week and Minn week 16 are great. You’ll want to avoid this passing attack if you can week 15 @NE.
New Orleans Saints – are looking great matchup-wise vs.Car, @Chi, and Atl, so Graham and Stills should be good to go. Pierre Thomas could also be a decent play if you are really hurting.
Philadelphia Eagles – After a tough game this week against Sea, they have vs.Dal and @Was.
SONG OF THE WEEK
This week I present, of Verona, an amazing indie act based in Los Angeles who are really starting to blow up right now. You can check out their song ‘Dark In My Imagination’ below:
I Invite You To Follow Me on Twitter: @FFesq
