This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two defensive backs. Therefore, about the middle of the DL2, LB2, and DB2 range are where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.
Defensive Line
Note: When I mention stats of the defensive linemen, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwised mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
NONE: I have mentioned before that there are a handful of weeks in which there is not a qualified prime cut sleeper and this is one of them. Many of the teams that are the best matchups for defensive linemen this week play against teams that run a 3-4 defense and not only do those teams have very few studs, they also do not have many prime cut sleepers. In addition, there are several teams that would have been good matchups on a bye this week. I cannot justify listing a prime cut sleeper this week because I don't see any. In fact, I don't even see anyone remotely close to being one. I'll go a step further and add that this week has fewer overall quality sleepers at defensive line than I have seen since I began writing this article.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Derrick Morgan, Tennessee Titans (at Oakland)
Season stats: 15/6/4
Last week: 2/1/1
Oakland sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.9/2nd
Oakland QB pressure allowed ranking: 9th
Morgan had a sack in each of his first two games, then did not have any more through and including week nine. But in the last two weeks Morgan has picked up his play, racking up 6 solos, 3 assists, and 2 sacks. Morgan has a great matchup this week against the Raiders, who have allowed the second most sacks per game in the league and are ninth in QB pressure allowed. The Raiders will be without their best wide receiver, Denarius Moore, and that is likely to cause rookie quarterback Matt McGloin to hesitate more often when delivering the ball. Expect Morgan to have several sack opportunities this week and that along with his improved play makes Morgan a solid upper-level sleeper this week. Morgan's modest overall numbers and inconsistent play prevented me from listing him as a prime cut sleeper.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Olivier Vernon, Miami Dolphins (vs. Carolina)
Season stats: 23/9/5.5
Last week: 5/1/1
Carolina sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.9/Tied for 8th
Carolina QB pressure allowed ranking: 22nd
Vernon is currently ranked in the mid-DB3 range and although he is not considered a great pass rusher, his sack totals are reasonable and his tackle numbers are solid. Vernon faces the Panthers this week and despite them only being ranked 22nd in QB pressure allowed, there are in the top ten in sacks allowed. Many of those sacks occur because Cam Newton often uses his exceptional athleticism to extend plays. Vernon should have a handful of sack opportunities and that along with his respectable tackle numbers makes him a decent low-end sleeper this week.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Antonio Smith, Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville)
Season stats: 17/5/4
Last week: 3/0/0
Jacksonville sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.4/6th
Jacksonville QB pressure allowed ranking: Tied for 9th
Smith has not had a great deal of favorable matchups this year, but in most of the above average ones he has managed to post respectable numbers. Smith has a solid matchup this week against the Jaguars, who are sixth in sacks allowed per game and in the top ten in QB pressure allowed. J.J. Watt is so dominant that he takes two and sometimes three offensive players to block and that frees up Smith and other defensive players to make plays. I am listing Smith as a deep sleeper because his tackle numbers are not all that high but in a week with very few respectable sleepers he may be in quite a few lineups this week.
Arthur Jones, Baltimore Ravens (vs. New York Jets)
Season stats: 17/13/4
Last week: 2/0/0
New York Jets sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.5/Tied for 4th
New York Jets QB pressure allowed ranking: 2nd
Jones has a great matchup against the Jets, who are second in QB pressure allowed and tied for fourth in sacks allowed per game. This is a similar situation to that of Antonio Smith, except that Jones plays with a pair of elite edge rushers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. The comments about why Smith is a deep sleeper are identical to that of Jones.
Star Lotulelei, Carolina Panthers (at Miami)
Season stats: 21/8/2
Last week: 4/1/1
Miami sacks allowed per game/ranking: 4.1/1st
Miami QB pressure allowed ranking: 8th
Lotulelei has a great matchup against the Dolphins, who are tops in the league in sacks allowed per game and eighth. The incident involving Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin took two starters from an already shaky offensive line and now they are likely to be without center Mike Pouncey, who is listed a doubtful on the injury report. Lotulelei is not a great pass rusher, but his tackle numbers are solid and in a week with very few quality sleepers at defensive line, Lotulelei is not all that bad of an option.
Linebackers
Note: When I mention stats of linebackers, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens (vs. New York Jets)
Season stats: 38/27/9
Last week: 1/0/0
New York Jets rushing attempts per game/ranking: 30.2/7th
New York Jets tackle opportunities allowed ranking: Tied for 17th
Along with being one of the best pass rushers in the league, Suggs has posted strong tackle numbers for a 3-4 outside linebacker. Suggs did throw up a clunker last week with just a single solo tackle, but his tackle numbers makes games like that few and far between. Suggs has a great matchup against the Jets, who are in the top ten in rushing attempts per game, second in sacks allowed per game, and fourth in QB pressure allowed. Suggs is an elite pass rusher and that along with his solid tackle numbers and great matchup makes him a strong prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers (at Washington)
Season stats: 14/4/3.5
Last week: 1/0/0
Washington rushing attempts per game/ranking: 30.7/5th
Washington tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 2nd
This will be Smith's third game back since missing five games and he should be rounding into form in terms of game conditioning and performance. Smith had a terrible matchup last week against the Saints, but this week's matchup against Washington is much better. Washington is second in tackle opportunities allowed, fifth in rushing attempts per game, and just outside the top ten in sacks allowed per game. Smith should have several sack opportunities and he has generally posted respectable enough tackle numbers and that makes him a solid upper-level sleeper this week.
Donta Hightower, New England Patriots (vs. Denver)
Season stats: 29/26/1
Last week: 3/1/0
Denver rushing attempts per game/ranking: 29.2/Tied for 9th
Denver tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 1st
Hightower has a great matchup against the Broncos, who are tops in the league by a wide margin in tackle opportunities allowed and just inside the top ten in rushing attempts per game. The Broncos run a fast-paced offense and tend to run a high number of plays and that bodes well for Hightower. I expect a high number of tackle opportunities for Hightower this week and only a lack of big plays prevented me from listing him as a prime cut sleeper,
Solid Reach (Backup, situational player with upside)
Geno Hayes, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston)
Season stats: 47/15/0
Last week: 2/1/0
Houston rushing attempts per game/ranking: 27.3/18th
Houston tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 6th
Hayes has a solid matchup against the Texans, who, despite only ranking 18th in rushing attempts per game, are sixth in the league in tackle opportunities allowed. The Texans are annually near the top in tackle opportunities allowed and figure to win the time of possession battle against the Jaguars. Hayes has decent tackle numbers and generally plays every down and should have enough tackle opportunities to be a solid low-grade sleeper this week.
Perry Riley, Washington (vs. San Francisco)
Season stats: 51/24/2
Last week: 5/0/0
San Francisco rushing attempts per game/ranking: 31.6/3rd
San Francisco tackle opportunities allowed: 26th
Riley has only had a couple of bad statistical games this year and has only had two games with fewer than five total tackles all season. Riley faces the 49ers this week and they are third in the league in rushing attempts per game. The 49ers are only 26th in tackle opportunities allowed but inside linebackers have posted strong numbers against them this season and that long with Riley rarely having bad numbers is enough to list him as a low-end sleeper with upside this week.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Adam Hayward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Detroit)
Season stats: 5/2/0
Last week: 3/1/0
Detroit rushing attempts per game/ranking: 25.9/Tied for 21st
Detroit tackle opportunities allowed ranking: Tied for 14th
Hayward is expected to start in place of the injured Mason Foster and in the past he has posted respectable numbers when forced into more playing time, such as four total tackles while playing a little more than half the snaps last week. Hayward faces the Lions this week and although they are in the middle of the pack in tackle opportunities allowed, they are likely to win the time of possession battle and run a high number of plays. That is enough to consider Hayward as a deep sleeper if you are badly in need at linebacker this week. The good news is Hayward is likely on the waiver wire in the vast majority of leagues.
Defensive Backs
Note: When I mention stats of defensive backs, the format will be solos/assists/interceptions/passes defended unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Duke Ihenacho, Denver Broncos (at New England)
Season stats: 45/8/0/8
Last week: 3/0/0/0
New England passing attempts per game/ranking: 38.0/9th
New England passes defended allowed ranking: 32nd
New England tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 8th
Ihenacho has a great matchup against the Patriots, who are in the top ten in tackle opportunities allowed and both attempted rushes and attempted passes per game. Ihenacho is not great in coverage but should see a high number of tackle opportunities between run defense and passes in the short zones to the New England slot receivers and that makes him a solid prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Johnthan Banks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Detroit)
Season stats: 31/3/1/3
Last week: 6/0/0/1
Detroit passing attempts per game/ranking: 41.9/2nd
Detroit passes defended allowed ranking: Tied for 4th
Detroit tackle opportunities allowed ranking: Tied for 14th
Banks has 11 solos and a pass defended in the last two weeks and in general sees more passes thrown in his direction due to Darrelle Revis being on the other side of the field. Banks has a great matchup against the Lions, who are second in attempted passes per game and fourth in passes defended allowed. Expect the Lions to attack Banks right from the start and that makes Banks a strong upper-level sleeper this week. With the Lions likely to dominate time of possession, Banks has enough upside to be a borderline prime cut sleeper, but I listed him a tier lower due to below average coverage numbers.
Dwayne Gratz, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston)
Season stats: 15/1/1/1
Last week: 2/0/0/0
Houston passing attempts per game/ranking: 40.6/5th
Houston passes defended allowed ranking: 6th
Houston tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 6th
Gratz, who missed more than a month earlier in the season because of an injury, has 11 solos, a pass defended, and an interception in his last three games. Gratz has a great matchup against the Texans, who are fifth in attempted passes per game. The fact that the Texans ranks sixth in both tackle opportunities allowed and passes defended allowed is favorable for cornerbacks in terms of fantasy points and that makes Gratz a solid upper-end sleeper this week.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Brandon Carr, Dallas Cowboys (at New York Giants)
Season stats: 43/4/2/9
Last week: 4/1/0/0
New York Giants passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.8/14th
New York Giants passes defended allowed ranking: 3rd
New York Giants tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 29th
Carr has a solid matchup this week against the Giants, who are third in passes defended allowed. Although they are near the bottom in tackle opportunities allowed, the high number of passes defended allowed is favorable enough for cornerbacks to consider Carr a respectable low-end sleeper this week.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Johnnathan Joseph, Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville)
Season stats: 24/2/1/11
Last week: 3/1/0/2
Jacksonville passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.9/13th
Jacksonville passes defended allowed ranking: 1st
Jacksonville tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 30th
Joseph has a situation similar to that of Brandon Carr, but Carr has posted much better numbers this year than Joseph. The Jaguars are tops in the league in passes defended allowed and tend to throw the ball quite a bit in garbage time. That is a favorable situation for cornerbacks to make plays in coverage and if you are in desperate need of a deep sleeper at cornerback this week, you could do a lot worse than Joseph.
