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IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 7

Dave Larkin analyzes the key IDP matchups to exploit and avoid in Week 7.

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the Week 7 edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Aaron Rudnicki on a weekly basis.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

Above all else, I think the most useful attribute for any fantasy owner to possess is adaptability. Injuries are inevitable in a league predicated on knocking opponents’ heads off on a down by down basis. Being able to assess the impacts (from a fantasy perspective) separates the good owners from those who will be crying into their last-placed trophy at the end of the season.

We have a six-week sample size of data to trawl through, and with it we can more accurately target matchups. However, I would urge you to remain as nimble as possible when it comes to line-up decisions. A trend that was once viable and rooted in data can turn on its head in a moment.

Let’s do a deep dive on the tasty Week 7 slate of games.

Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit

Jacksonville pass rushers at Indianapolis

The Jaguars have been on a strange path of seesaw games this season; every odd week is a rousing success, while the even weeks have seen them fall, sometimes to inferior opponents. As this is an odd week, should we simply expect a bounce back? The short answer is yes, and it all comes down to the opponent. The Colts line has been a sieve this season and rank as the worst unit in terms of surrendering pressure. Jacoby Brissett can inject some life into the offense, but teams seem to figure the Colts out by the fourth quarter. The Jaguars have a key opportunity to parlay their revamped defense into a division win here. Trust them to deliver on this, an odd week.


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