As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone, but the offseason will be here soon and now is the time to start planning ahead.
For the last few weeks, I have looked at the Buy Low / Sell High IDPs that we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now it's time to peerr into the future as best we can and see if there are some deals to be made.
Since I have already covered each position over the last few weeks, I am going to switch gears and discuss some important things to look for when deciding who is a good Buy Low or Sell High candidate.
Overachievers/Underachievers: This one is fairly obvious. Proven studs like Patrick Willis and Charles Johnson have had disappointing seasons. For various reasons there are usually several busts among the high-ranked players in any given year. It is our job to sort through them and separate the wheat from the chaff. Take advantage of some of the studs that you still like than were busts and make a move to get them from the owners who think their stud days are over or are simply down on them. Among the best values are players that were banged up enough to underachieve but played in every game. Everyone values players differently and the only way to determine which players an owner will trade is to ask. Conversely, there are always several marginal talents that register solid fantasy numbers and basically post statistics that outperform and are not really indicative of their true talent level. A player like Nick Roach best describes this. Roach is posting top-20 fantasy numbers but opportunity and a lack of surrounding talent are more of a reason for Roach's stats than Roach's talent. It only takes an opportunity for even the most marginal player to put up strong fantasy numbers. These are the players that should be sold during the season. You can still move a player like Roach during the offseason, but the peak value is when they are posting strong fantasy numbers during the season.
Coaching/Scheme Changes: This is something that often gets overlooked and you need not look beyond the history of Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma to see how important this is. In 2005, Vilma played middle linebacker in the 4-3 defense for the New York Jets and was the top fantasy scoring linebacker that season. Following the season, the Jets hired Eric Mangini as their head coach and he changed the 4-3 defense to a 3-4. Vilma does not have the skillset to play inside linebacker in the 3-4 defense that Mangini used and his fantasy numbers plummetted. Vilma eventually went to the Saints and played middle linebacker in their 4-3 defense again. He returned to being an elite fantasy linebacker. Scheme matters and even though Vilma's situation happened several years ago, I like to use it because it offers the best proof of any player that I can recall and involves multiple scheme changes. Another example and more recent is that of Bills defensive end Mario Williams. While playing 4-3 defensive end with the Texans, Williams was an elite fantasy defensive lineman. The Texans switched to a 3-4 defense and Williams was moved to outside linebacker, where he was at best a LB3/4 type. Williams left the Texans and signed with the Bills, moving back to defensive end and once again was an elite fantasy performer. Like Vilma, Williams' fantasy value changed drastically with the change in position and that was determined by the scheme change. Keep an eye on coaching changes, including defensive coordinators. Many of them will bring a different scheme with them and it can make a significant difference. Being ahead of the curve here can pay huge dividends.
Experience/Age: This is another fairly obvious thing to pay attention to, but as usual there are exceptions. In most cases, I like to buy low on underachieving rookies that I am high on, especially those that do not play a lot and fall under the radar. When I use the word underachieving, I generally mean with respect to their talent level. Many of them are stuck behind established or more experienced players and have to earn their way. I especially like to buy low on rookie defensive ends because they tend to take longer to develop than players at other positions, largely because pass rushing technique is difficult to learn. With older and more experienced players, it works both ways, depending on the type of team you have. If you are rebuilding, you need to move the older players to contenders and add picks or younger players with upside. However, don't just trade them to trade them. That is a mistake many owners make and eventually figure out. On the other side of the coin, if you are a contender, you can often acquire older players for pennies on the dollar. A lot of fantasy owners tend to undervalue older players and many may be older but are not too old to contribute. The reason I know this is because I fell into this trap in the past, namely selling too low on London Fletcher about four years ago. I'm sure everyone can see how that turned out. By the way, I REALLY believe Fletcher is retiring this year. My main point is don't sell simply because of age.
Free Agency: This is very important and has a huge bearing on your offseason strategy, including the rookie draft. You must know what is happening around the league, especially with players that are not entrenched as starters and backups that may start if the current starter departs via free agency (or trade). Knowing the potential free agents will impact you going forward, not only with the free agents themselves, but the backups that may compete for the newly vacated starting position. Buying low on those backups is an excellent strategy.
Staying On Top of the Offseason News: For the serious IDP dynasty player and even redraft players who like to stay ahead of the curve, please join the year-round discussion in the IDP Forum at Footballguys.com. We talk about everything above and then some and in great detail. Remember, there is no offseason there; only a non-playing season.
