Each week, I’ll be touring the league’s top dark zone outlooks – plays from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line – with DFS on my mind. I’m always looking for touchdowns (specifically multi-touchdown performances) to take down tournaments, so while the dark zone doesn’t outright decide my GPP lineups, it certainly informs them.
I use a simple but logical formula to project each player’s red zone outlook. I first develop a projection for the team’s overall dark zone snaps, both passing and rushing, by comparing their totals to those faced by their opponents over the last three weeks, then weighting it 60% in the offense’s favor. I then apply each player’s dark zone share to that projection, then apply that projected touch total to the player’s dark zone success rate. Ultimately, the process spits out an often conservative expectation for dark zone scores. And since these are the most common and predictable touchdowns, I come away with a strong expectation for each option’s ability to score touchdowns and tilt contests.
Here’s a rundown of who catches my eye for Week 7:
Passing Game Notables
He’s the NFL’s current dark zone king. When the Cardinals approach the goal line, short throws to the future Hall of Famer are second overall on the team’s agenda. Consider that they’re only throwing in the dark zone at a middle-of-the-pack rate, yet Fitzgerald leads the league with 8 looks from inside the 10. It’s hard to get too excited about a wideout facing Seattle, who just last Sunday gave up their first dark zone touchdown pass of the year. But Fitzgerald is unlikely to see much Richard Sherman attention from the slot, so beating a lesser cornerback for a short scoring fade is very much in play.
Allen Robinson
Robinson hasn’t approached the dark zone heights of his 2015, when he stunningly turned 10 of his 18 targets into touchdowns. But in 2016, he’s still pacing the team in attention from there – a team that threw a league-high 51 such passes from there last season. A catch-point dominator, Robinson carries great TD odds against a Raiders cornerback crew that’s been burned on every level of the field. They’ve been thrown against relentlessly in the dark zone, allowing five TDs through five games. This has the early-week feel of a 150-yard Robinson eruption, and his fair chance of finding the end zone makes him a solid play for a multi-score week.
Each week our Ryan Hester writes up a fantastic piece entitled Trendspotting, and one of its key features is determining what we should be learning from recent trends. Last week, Hester identified Pitta as a high-volume target whose lack of touchdown production is alarming, and that his short-yardage use could skyrocket with Steve Smith shelved. Hester was right on that trends like that tend to correct, and Pitta indeed drew his first 2 looks of the year from inside the 10. Assuming Smith doesn’t suit up Sunday, Pitta is in the driver’s seat for short passing touchdowns. Over his career, he’s a 50% TD producer in the dark zone.
Barnidge has been a solid cash-game skeleton key of late; he’s consistently underpriced yet has delivered at or insanely close to 3x value for 4 straight weeks. He’s done it without scoring touchdowns, though (none over his last eight games). The big-play threat will take on the Bengals this week, and they’ve been pitiful at defending the tight end spot. Rob Gronkowski erupted against them last week, but before that, they’d allowed scoring catches by the likes of Xavier Grimble and John Phillips.
No one is being scorched in the deep zone more than the Lions. Through 6 games, they’ve somehow allowed 10 of the 13 deep ball throws they’ve faced to end in touchdowns. And that hasn’t been some oddball stat, skewed by a three-TD eruption by some stud receiver. Of late, that mark has included two wideouts (Josh Huff and Kenny Britt) who had seen a combined one dark zone target on the year prior to facing Detroit. That looks like a legitimate trend, so it’s easy to project Cousins to find the end zone this weekend. It’ll be hard to find a great stack here if Jordan Reed sits, but the appeal is there in large-field tournaments. Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon have each seen more short-yardage looks than Reed – in fact, Crowder has already been targeted 3 times from inside the 4-yard line. That’s not to mention Vernon Davis, who saw a short target himself last week in Reed’s stead. Stacks or no stacks, though, Cousins is definitely intriguing in this matchup.
Few throw near the goal line more often than Luck, whose 19 attempts sit second in the league. His efficiency from there (five touchdowns) isn’t great, but could be due for progression, and the volume is top-notch. That’s why it makes sense to toss Luck and a teammate into a GPP lineup in hopes of multiple scores. The shrewdest stack partner is probably a tight end: Luck’s short-yardage love affair for the position dates back to his Stanford days, when he churned out big TD numbers alongside Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo. Allen is the strongest play, but Doyle makes for great differentiation to go into a chalk-filled GPP lineup. Together they’ll take on the Titans, who have been generally strong in the dark zone but allowed two short-yardage scores to Terrelle Pryor last week.
Williams is an interesting case. The 6’4” rising semi-star has seen 6 looks from inside the 10 – tied for third in the league – but has yet to turn one into touchdowns. It’s flawed thinking to assume we know positive progression will happen, but it’s often shrewd to invest a little into it against the grain. The rest of the Chargers are converting dark zone targets at a fine rate, so we know there’s not a systemic problem. I’m confident that the talented Williams will find a nonzero connection with Philip Rivers at some point soon. And I’ll be throwing him into a few Week 7 GPP lineups in the hopes of a multi-TD line against a Falcons secondary that’s already allowed 8 dark zone scores.
A marginally athletic blocking tight end, James has carved out a disproportionately massive dark zone role. In fact, SteelersTEs in generalhave drawn sky-high usage from in close. James sits tied with Travis Kelce for the league’s TE lead in dark zone targets (five), and Ben Roethlisberger has also given some attention to Xavier Grimble. Usage like that strikes me as scheme-based, so I expect Landry Jones to look James’ way if he manages to stumble-shove the Steelers into the dark zone. Steelers ownership rates will plummet this week, so James could be 1%-owned gold with a short scoring flip.
Running Game Notables
The passing-game dynamo is officially a do-it-all back. Johnson is the Cardinals’ engine inside the 10, where he’s taken a league-high 18 carries and scored 6 times. Don’t overthink Johnson as being dependent upon game flow; when the Cardinals offense hums and scores copiously, it’s usually because of him. Seattle presents a difficult roadblock, of course, but Johnson has proven his floor plenty palatable considering his weekly overall upside.
This duo takes on the Saints, a pitiful defense that allowed the Panthers to run for three short touchdowns in Sunday’s fourth quarter. As a result, they demand our GPP attention. Ware was the Week 6 workhorse, which makes it even more glaring that Charles saw more usage – 4 looks to Ware’s 2 – against the Raiders. (Both ceded a one-yard score to Dontari Poe, but that was a gadget play that obviously shouldn’t be factored in here.) It’s interesting, as Charles’ short-yardage volume has been subpar in recent years. That’s why I expect this to tilt back Ware’s way, if only a bit. The power back has a strong, if small-sample, career resume from inside the 10 (7 scores on 17 rushes), and the team may want to limit Charles’ high-contact workload. Ware’s proven workload speaks to a solid floor, and his scoring potential against such a paper-thin opponent makes him one of the stronger tournament plays this week.
Beyond the Saints, few run defenses have been more brutalized in the dark zone more than the Chargers’. Through 6 games, they’ve allowed 8 of their opponents’ 16 rushes to score. That’s included multi-touchdown lines for John Kuhn and the Colts’ stable of backs. Atlanta’s short-yardage distribution is up for weekly discussion, as Freeman boasts the volume (nine carries) but Coleman the efficiency (three TDs among his five). Obviously, the cash-game lean is toward Freeman, who isn’t quite dominating the backfield but presents the clearest opportunity. Still, this game carries the high-scoring look of a game that could usher Falcons backs into the end zone more than once, so both are squarely in play for tournaments.
Hyde was a lynchpin of my rosters last week, thanks to his combination of salary relief and scoring potential. It didn’t pan out, as the 49ers abandoned the run early and struggled to move into the dark zone. But I’m back on board for Week 7, as Hyde is again underpriced across the industry. He’s scored in four of six games thus far, including two multi-touchdown games, and the Buccaneers have allowed a dark zone TD in four of their five. And Hyde’s salary dictates that a multi-score game would all but guarantee GPP value.
Overall, though, no one has been brutalized more consistently on dark zone runs than Washington. They’ve somehow allowed 7 of 8 rushes from inside the 10-yard line to score, which automatically gives GPP appeal to the Lions’ backs. That’s a crowded backfield, and nailing down week-to-week opportunity is tricky. But in tournament play, that’s fine and dandy – their healthy backs are cheap, and none will be obvious enough to draw much ownership. Zenner looked great Sunday, and his collegiate background (58 touchdowns across 41 starts) is one of a bona fide touchdown guy. He’s likely to lose some work to Forsett, and the team’s top two backs could return this week, so the situation must be monitored. But he’ll probably carry the team’s strongest chance to continue punishing Washington up close.
