Week 17 DFS Short Yardage Outlooks

A look into notable short-yardage (and touchdown) outlooks throughout the Week 17 DFS pool

Each week, I’ll be touring the league’s top dark zone outlooks – plays from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line – with DFS on my mind. I’m always looking for touchdowns (specifically multi-touchdown performances) to take down tournaments, so while the dark zone doesn’t outright decide my GPP lineups, it certainly informs them.

I use a simple but logical formula to project each player’s red zone outlook. I first develop a projection for the team’s overall dark zone snaps, both passing and rushing, by comparing their totals to those faced by their opponents over the last 3-5 weeks, then weighting it 60% in the offense’s favor. I then apply each player’s dark zone share to that projection, then apply that projected touch total to the player’s dark zone success rate. Ultimately, the process spits out an often conservative expectation for dark zone scores. And since these are the most common and predictable touchdowns, I come away with a strong expectation for each option’s ability to score touchdowns and tilt contests.

Please note of course that Week 17 fantasy football is, to speak scientifically, all higglety-pigglety. Only about a quarter of the league’s teams are playing to extend their seasons and/or improve their postseason outlooks, after all. The rest are merely treading water, so many are shutting down their crucial players via injured reserve or otherwise getting in another week of live action for untested youngsters. Whatever their courses of action, there is little certainty beyond about 8-10 teams, so cash play is due to suffer. Rostering safe, sanitized, volume-driven plays is less plausible this week, and the following touchdown-happy options could easily be your best bets to topple any contests.

Here’s a rundown of who catches my eye for Week 17:

Passing Game Notables

Jordy Nelson


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