Each week, I’ll be touring the league’s top dark zone outlooks – plays from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line – with DFS on my mind. I’m always looking for touchdowns (specifically multi-touchdown performances) to take down tournaments, so while the dark zone doesn’t outright decide my GPP lineups, it certainly informs them.
I use a simple but logical formula to project each player’s red zone outlook. I first develop a projection for the team’s overall dark zone snaps, both passing and rushing, by comparing their totals to those faced by their opponents over the last three weeks, then weighting it 60% in the offense’s favor. I then apply each player’s dark zone share to that projection, then apply that projected touch total to the player’s dark zone success rate. Ultimately, the process spits out an often conservative expectation for dark zone scores. And since these are the most common and predictable touchdowns, I come away with a strong expectation for each option’s ability to score touchdowns and tilt contests.
Here’s a rundown of who catches my eye for Week 15:
Passing Game Notables
The good news is that he’s still a bit underpriced for his ceiling. The really good news is that my projections call for him to find the end zone with near-certainty this week. Sweetening that outlook even more is the fact that Nelson carries as strong a shot as anyone to score more than once. He leads the league in dark zone targets (14) and touchdowns (8), both by healthy margins, and the Packers’ receiving corps has largely squared itself out. Nelson remains the apple of Aaron Rodgers’ efficient eye, particularly near the goal line, where other Packers options are typically overlooked. There’s volume, there’s consistency, and there’s real dynamism at play. Nelson will come highly owned, but he’ll also come as the safest bet among wideouts to erupt touchdown-wise and reach tournament value.