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Arian Foster’s groin surgery is a big deal; the waves it sent through the fantasy community on Tuesday were legitimate and carry far-reaching statsheet implications. But those go beyond Foster himself, and the fantasy owners who have already invested a top-20 pick in him. Foster missing the first half of the season – and perhaps the second – should shove at least one more back into the fantasy spotlight, if only for one reason:
Volume. And lots and lots of it.
In his 2014 debut, head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien employed a “play to your strengths” mentality, identifying Foster and the ground game as his lynchpin and pounding the ball relentlessly. All told, the Texans notched a league-high 551 rushing attempts – 474 were reserved for running backs. And with the quarterback position now resembling a nasty dumpster fire, that usage doesn’t seem likely to change significantly. Simply put: it’s hard to overstate the volume potential in this offense, so its runners will (and should) be wholly relevant to fantasy football.
Obviously, much of the credit for the Texans’ mammoth rushing totals belongs to their explosive, diversely talented bellcow. Arguably the league’s best all-around back, Foster is not some interchangeable part who can be readily swapped for whatever is left in the bucket. It would be naïve to assume their ground approach won’t tweak, and that O’Brien will simply pile another 474 carries onto a much less talented 2015 backfield.
But it’s rare that a team drastically shifts its run:pass ratio from one season to another. Expect O’Brien’s preference for a balanced (and often run-dominant) offense to largely stick in his second year – because it’s even rarer to see a team flip its offensive script for the sake of quarterbacking like this.
A Passing Game only a mother could love
To put it nicely: In Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, the Texans carry one of the NFL’s least threatening quarterback situations into 2015. Hoyer, who’s thrown 630 career passes, will likely draw the Week 1 start as he joins his fourth team in seven seasons. He closed 2014 as the league’s worst passer down the stretch and inspires no confidence as a catalyst to a successful pass game. Mallett remains an unknown and looked overwhelmed in two 2014 starts. He’s enormous and cannon-armed, but a shaky proposition at best to jump-start a passing game. Neither option is as attractive as 2014 Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the passing game should take a noticeable step back from its moderately efficient showing of last year.
As the quarterbacking goes, of course, so (usually) goes the run game. Any Foster replacement would almost certainly struggle to produce much in a predictable, inefficient offense – especially one likely to trail more in 2015. But we’re not rifling through this backfield for a diamond in the rough; rather, we’re mining for more of a high-volume, low-excitement type that won’t draw much attention in the early rounds of drafts. If one of these options seizes the majority of work, he’ll immediately become a threat for 150 early-season touches – and sneaky RB2 appeal.
Bill O'Brien's Options
(Accompanying projections are for the entire season, based on the assumption that Foster misses the Texans’ first eight games and returns as the clear-cut starter.)
Alfred Blue
Blue, a career backup at LSU, won the role of Foster’s understudy early as a rookie, ultimately earning 169 rushes as a solid handcuff option down the stretch. That’s well and good, but Blue finished 2014 as one of the league’s least efficient backs. His 3.1 YPC was worst among all 32 backs with 150+ carries (Foster’s 4.8 was fifth-best), and only Chris Johnson ran for touchdowns at a lower touchdown rate.
It’s hard to envision Blue as the leader of an NFL running game. In school, he never topped 78 rushes or 539 yards in a season (losing most of one to an ACL tear) and caught just 16 passes across 41 games. In fact, Blue was all but phased from the gameplan late in his senior year. He’s built well at 6’2” and 232 pounds, but posted thoroughly mediocre athletic numbers at last year’s combine. Blue has all the makings of JAG (Just Another Guy) and simply doesn’t belong atop a depth chart.
Floor (25% of Foster’s projected rushes): 72 rushes, 275 yards, 1 touchdown
Ceiling (75% of Foster’s projected rushes): 220 rushes, 835 yards, 4 touchdowns
Chris Polk
Polk was a mega-producer at the University of Washington, racking up 124 scrimmage yards per game over his final three years. He was surprisingly undrafted in 2012, though then-Eagles scout Daniel Jeremiah offered a reasonable explanation for his fall:
“@duke_dangler: Polk went undrafted for a reason.” > you're right. It was a medical reason. Most teams had 3rd/4th rd grades on him.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) August 6, 2013
Not a dazzling athlete, Polk’s calling card is his versatility, making him a sensible candidate for a three-down role. In Philadelphia, Polk received little offensive opportunity, topping out at 97 offensive snaps in 2014. But he’s been explosive enough on the NFL level to pick up 10+ yards on 10 of his 63 career touches – in addition to returning a kickoff 102 yards for a score last season.
Floor (25% of Foster’s projected rushes): 72 rushes, 318 yards, 2.5 touchdowns
Ceiling (75% of Foster’s projected rushes): 220 rushes, 966 yards, 6 touchdowns
An Outside Hire
Once Foster’s news broke, the Texans expressed immediate interest in adding outside help. But they declined to sign Pierre Thomas, arguably the gem of a weak remaining free agent crop, after an impromptu workout. It’s certainly possible another back comes aboard, forcing us all to re-evaluate Polk and Blue down the road. But the names still available are mostly camp body types, and it’s certainly possible the team’s best option is already on the roster. Adding a long-time veteran like Ray Rice or Steven Jackson means paying a higher salary for less return; former stars typically don’t accept minimum salaries nor contribute on special teams, traits teams desire in rotational running backs. And it doesn’t seem likely to expect some young, untested prospect like James Wilder, Jr. come to the rescue and definitively outplay both Polk and Blue in August.
Ultimately, we should be approaching our present drafts as though Polk and Blue are the frontrunners for the bulk of the early-season work. It’s a fluid situation, though, so we need to protect ourselves from overinvesting in either.
ADP Talks, Blue Walks
Through 1,210 drafts tabulated by Fantasy Football Calculator since Tuesday’s news, Blue’s ADP has skyrocketed as high as the back end of the third round in non-PPR leagues, making him a true mid-tier RB2 investment. But there’s little to Blue’s outlook – besides his volume potential, which is indeed ample – to suggest that kind of upside. To solidly reach RB2 status, Blue would likely need to thoroughly vanquish Polk and all other options squarely into reserves and improve mightily upon his plodding, uninspiring rookie play. That’s a tall order, and one of the riskier propositions among your RB2 options. Are you up for gambling on Blue’s volume just overwhelming the talents of Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and T.J. Yeldon?
Polk, on the other hand, projects to solid RB2 value should he seize the Texans’ heavy lifting – and great handcuff value if he fails to. And unlike Blue, he’s coming at a reasonable price tag. Since Tuesday, Polk has been taken between the 12th and 18th rounds, alongside dice rolls like Denard Robinson and Cameron Artis-Payne. That ADP will certainly shift over the next few weeks, but it is unlikely to overcome that of the incumbent Blue until the (hypothetical) day Polk wins the job publicly.
Ultimately, at the moment, both Blue and Polk are dice rolls themselves. But Blue is being priced at his peak projection, while Polk is tagged near his floor – despite a current 50/50 outlook. In fact, Polk’s current cost would be a decent investment even if he didn’t win the starting job. The projections may be muddy right now, but it seems clear where the value lies in this backfield.
The Takeaway
It looks fairly clear that there’s strong, strong volume to be had in this backfield. And based upon their limited resumes, Polk has a better chance than Blue to make an impact as a lead back.
Of course, it’s questionable as to what Polk’s tiny resume really means in his new digs. He may be a modest talent whose abilities were inflated by a small sample size in a RB-friendly system. And perhaps the Texans coaches will appreciate the fact that Blue has a year of experience within the scheme. But while Blue has (a little) familiarity on his side, he’s a wholly unimpressive back who doesn’t possess Polk’s upside.
A messy timeshare in Houston doesn’t help us much; this isn’t Atlanta and can’t support two weekly RB2/flex options. But if O’Brien wants to hand the keys to just one guy - the more versatile, dynamic, and efficient of the two - Polk is the strongest candidate and the one for you to pull for. He’s just more likely to threaten consistent RB2 value while Foster is sidelined – and at the moment, he’s significantly cheaper.