Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.
No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the results of two weekly measures:
DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of A.J. Green’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.
H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:
(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000
On to my Week 9 DraftKings plays:
Quarterback
Cash Considerations
Well, it appears he’s back – or at least the best fantasy aspects of him, anyway. The Packers offense has yet to fully regain its dominant form, but they’re playing efficient small ball and scoring points. As a result, Rodgers has been racking up gobs of volume – he carries the week’s highest attempt projection at 42.8 – and dominating near the goal line. You never want to chase touchdowns in your cash games, but with Rodgers facing what the Colts call a defense, they look like a near-certainty. That means his floor lines up nicely with his 23-point cash-value requirement, and it pairs with his clear and ever-present QB1 upside.
Prescott will carry a ton of chalk this week, meaning he should be squarely on your cash radar as it is. But deploy him with confidence – the Browns defense is flailing and unable to stop any passing game. With Dez Bryant healthy and sewn intricately into the offense, Prescott shouldn’t have much difficulty reaching 18 points. After all, every Browns opponent except for one (Ryan Fitzpatrick) has managed to.
GPP Options
Now that he’s allowed to run and just be generally awesome, Mariota is finally an efficiency winner and high-upside dual threat. Over the last three weeks he’s produced 9.47 yards per attempt and hit on 11 completions of 20+ yards, sixth-best on this slate. The Chargers secondary has played underrated football of late, but games involving either of these two teams almost always top 50 points, giving Mariota strong GPP appeal.
The Cheap Guys
This week, my projections just adore a handful of the low-cost, moderate-upside guys:
| Salary | DK Pt | Pt/$1K | H-Val | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 5000 | 20.47 | 4.09 | 74.17 |
| Case Keenum | 5000 | 19.26 | 3.85 | 66.77 |
| Blake Bortles | 5800 | 19.77 | 3.41 | 60.24 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5600 | 19.16 | 3.42 | 59.08 |
...at the expense of the traditional high-dollar options. These four all carry distinct appeal and should together make up around 25-30% of your GPP portfolio. Bortles looks to be imploding on the field, but carries a long and storied history of prolific garbage-time work. The idea of him taking downfield shots against a prevent defense that’s struggled against the pass is tasty, especially now that his salary has dipped. Taylor is always a GPP dream as a consistent running threat and big-play gunslinger, and his ownership will never be lower than in this trip to Seattle. Take advantage: he needs 20 points to bring value and has topped 18 in 3 of 4 games. Kaepernick gets to host the Saints, and he’s running like crazy (150 yards over 2 starts). He remains a truly bad quarterback, but there’s value in the matchup. Keenum probably won’t be on any of my rosters, but his second-place ranking here is worth noting. He projects to throw 40 passes against a defense that’s occasionally disemboweled in the passing game.
Running Back
Cash Considerations
I obviously don’t love his skyrocketing salary, but everything else is awfully sexy. Elliott owns the backfield, taking nearly 70% of rushes and targets, and has been as explosive and efficient as just about anyone. His matchup with the defensively-maligned Browns is so tasty, if it were in a movie, you wouldn’t believe it. Cleveland has allowed 6.03 yards per rush over its last 3 games, and 4 of its last 5 opponents have run for 137+ yards. (The last two went for 271 and 171, actually.) No breakdown required: Elliott deserves to be shoehorned into the top of your cash portfolio.
Spencer Ware will almost certainly sit out (concussion), making West this week’s Devontae Booker, if not as cheap. He’ll be so chalky and value-laden that 50% or more of your cash contests will roster him, and you may not want to be left holding the bag. West needs only 13 points to cash, and it would be hard to imagine him falling short as the lead Kansas City back. He won’t own the backfield overwhelmingly – Tyreek Hill sees change-of-pace work from the backfield – but his cash marker only calls for a strong lead-back day against a struggling defense. Kansas City runners have a penchant for high efficiency and passing game usage, so West carries both floor and ceiling into Sunday.
These two look like strong chalk plays independently, or as a cross-stack, in that they’re both red-hot and the only things going consistently well for their offenses. If I don’t want to stack, I’m leaning toward Ajayi, strictly for chalk reasons. He’s a quality runner who probably won’t fall off the map, even if he has no chance at approaching 200 yards this week. Just 80-90 yards and a touchdown will meet value. Most importantly, though, he comes at a $500 discount and will carry more ownership. Forte has thoroughly vanquished Bilal Powell to change-of-pace duties, and while he’s not particularly efficient, the matchup couldn’t be sweeter. Miami has allowed a stunning 5.31 yards per rush over its last 3 games, so Forte’s floor grows noticeably along with his considerable ceiling.
He’s the bell cow, for better or worse – and lately it’s been better. Unsatisfied with their other options, the Lions have relied upon Riddick to both run and catch, and he’s responded with 82 and 133 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks. With his usage and dynamism, he’ll be a solid play this week at his sub-$5,000 salary. The Minnesota defense has shown cracks over the past few weeks; Riddick’s floor isn’t nearly as low as we’re used to, and he’s still a bit too cheap for that kind of usage. Another 5 catches and moderate yardage will bring home cash value even without a touchdown.
GPP Options
LeVeon Bell
These two face off and, like Ajayi and Forte, make for an intriguing cross-stack. Bell is Bell, the league’s most versatile and productive back. He’ll likely be an even stronger workhorse for an offense that could look to keep the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger and his knee. And we know, of course, that Bell is thoroughly matchup-proof, carrying the best floor and the best ceiling of just about any possible DFS slate. He’ll rarely fall below 15-18 points and is always a threat to reach 30. West could be the skeleton key, though: he’ll be relatively low-owned after a useless Week 7 start and a bye. Recency bias is a real thing. But regardless of his clunker against the Jets’ powerful run defense, West remains the Ravens’ unchallenged lead back and a clear threat to top 100 yards and score on a weak Steelers defense. They’ve allowed 5.29 yards per rush over their last 3 games and have been run on relentlessly near the goal line.
Mark Ingram
Let other DFSers panic over his fourth-quarter fumble-related benching. There’s little chance Sean Payton truly prefers Tim Hightower’s game to Ingram’s, so I’m projecting at least 16-18 rushes and 2-3 targets. And that’s really all any back needs to bring value against the 49ers’ laughable defense. Five of their last six opponents have managed 172+ rushing yards, and the last two totaled a near-impossible 562. If the Saints win comfortably as expected, Ingram and his backfield mates should combine to approach 200. Ingram’s plummeting salary (just $4,800) would all but guarantee 4x value if that holds.
Wide Receiver
Cash Considerations
Ty Montgomery
It appears he’ll play after getting in a near-full practice on Thursday, so be sure to shuffle him into your cash lineups. He needs to be an absolute staple. Montgomery, of course, serves as both a heavily targeted receiver (25 targets over his last 2 games) and a prominent ballcarrier (12 rushes) in a barren backfield. That creates ceiling, of course, but also a floor of opportunity that few elite wide receivers can touch. You’ll be getting it at a solid discount ($5,800), meaning he’ll cash even if his absurd receiving numbers are cut in half.
We know how great he is, and now we know Dak Prescott is willing to target him relentlessly. Cole Beasley and Jason Witten bring real skills to the table, but Bryant is a gamechanger who absolutely deserves the overwhelming dominance of the passing game. Over their last two full games together, Prescott has looked Bryant’s way 26 times among his 70 throws, a staggering 37.1% share that provides a much stronger floor than we saw last Sunday. Bryant will consistently catch the ball at better than a 29% clip, so if we can project him to another 14 targets, he shouldn’t have trouble registering 6-8 receptions. And few do more with 6-8 receptions than Bryant. Joe Haden’s presence is a bit of a concern, but it’s worth noting that the last two No. 1 outside receivers to face the Browns, Chris Hogan and Brandon Marshall, totaled 8 catches for 182 yards.
Britt isn’t much of an upside play. Case Keenum is a limited quarterback, and his Week 7 represents the absolute zenith for Rams passing volume. But Britt has been something of a cash-game machine, producing consistent weekly totals between 12 and 15 points while DraftKings’ pricing system has remained skeptical. He’s actually reached 3x value in 4 of his 7 games, coming up a point shy in another and reaching 10x in Week 6. And his matchup with Carolina is somewhat tantalizing. Over their last four games, the worst line posted by an opposing No. 1 wideout was Larry Fitzgerald’s 10-catch performance last week. Scattered throughout that span were Julio Jones’ 300-yard eruption and a 173-yard, 1-touchdown showcase from Brandin Cooks. Britt, of course, doesn’t even need to approach those lofty marks to bring cash value. A line around 5 catches for 80 yards will reach his marker, so he’s a fine play for salary relief as you stock up elsewhere.
DraftKings is finally pricing him better, but still closer to his floor than his ceiling. His $5,500 salary means Thomas only needs about 16 points to cash, and given his dark zone usage, we can feel relatively comfortable about his touchdown odds. And catching a TD would leave him in need of just 4-5 catches to land value. Yes, cash contests are far more about floor than about ceiling, but Thomas boasts a fine one of those as well. Over the last four games, Thomas has drawn the Saints’ highest target share (19.6%) – a big deal in an offense that’s weekly capable of throwing 40+ balls.
GPP Options
I don’t get it either, but it’s happening. One of the league’s least efficient wideouts for his first 2+ seasons, Adams has absolutely dominated the Packers passing game over the last two weeks. He’s somehow drawn 30 targets over that span – and 16 came in Week 7, when both Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery are healthy. Adams’ volume and production are supremely likely to fall off at some point, especially since both teammates seem likely to suit up Sunday. But his salary, while it’s inflated this week, still doesn’t capture his Week 9 outlook for usage. Consider that, over that two-game span, Adams has produced 1.89 DraftKings points per target. Even if we adjust that down to, say, 1.5, he’d still reach his cash-value marker on 10-12 targets. He’s not the safest stab at 23 points, but he’ll still carry quite a bit of chalk – 25-30% at a minimum – to help atone for a dip.
Moncrief’s value is somewhat tied to T.Y. Hilton’s (hamstring) health, but not overwhelmingly so. Moncrief boasts a near-20% target share in 2 games alongside Hilton, and he’s acquitted himself well with a touchdown in each game and an average of 16.3 DraftKings points. Obviously, though, we won’t know his true value as a play until we know more about Hilton’s availability. He’s practicing, but hamstring injuries are notoriously dicey and Hilton was useless while trying to play through the injury Sunday. If he sits, Moncrief is in line to serve as a clear-cut top-five value option and set up with fine odds to hit his 23-point cash marker. But with his talent and consistent offensive stake, he’ll remain a shrewd GPP option either way.
It appears Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) will play, so Coleman loses a bit of his early-week luster. But he’s still a strong tournament play, as Pryor’s presence will scare off more than a few DFSers that loathe rostering a Brown. But they fail to see the upside of dynamic deep threats like Coleman (and Pryor, of course) in this offense. Regardless of the quarterback, the relative lack of receiving options in Cleveland should funnel more of the volume toward Pryor but more of the chunk-play potential to Coleman. The blazing rookie was lethal in two games before his injury, gathering 13.3 yards and a stunning 2.79 DraftKings points per target. If we can plug him into that early-season volume and project him to 7-8 targets, it’s a shrewd bet that he can strike downfield at least once and meet value, all while carrying real 25-point upside.
Allen Robinson
I’ll keep beating this drum until it finally happens – and it will. Robinson is among the league’s premier playmakers on all levels of the field, and he’s still boasting dominant, if inefficient, usage. The Jaguars are a mess, which extends all the way to quarterback Blake Bortles, but they’re always in position to be garbage-time dynamos. That boosts Robinson’s floor – I always expect the Jacksonville passing game to see strong second-half volume – and his ceiling remains elite. Kansas City’s suspect cornerback play, which has been scorched on-and-off by opposing wideouts, and Robinson’s deflating salary make this one look tasty.
Tate seems to have seized at least a tenuous advantage over Marvin Jones for targets, but at the moment, there’s not a lot of consistency when compared to other targets. The returns of Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron have probably pigeonholed Tate as a solid-floor guy who just doesn’t boast the GPP-tilting volume we’ve seen in the past. Still, at this tiny salary ($4,700), you have to include him in your portfolio and hope for the best. That’s because Tate’s best is pretty explosive – he often flirts with high efficiency and short stretches packed with chunk plays. He absolutely boasts a realistic path to 18+ points.
Tight End
Cash Considerations
I’m not one to react sharply to one game, like Ebron’s Week 8 semi-breakout (7 catches on 10 targets). But the DFS community tends to – especially when a guy like Ebron remains dirt cheap. Ebron only needs 4-5 catches to reach cash value, and he seems likely to be the week’s chalkiest play. He brings both a near-lock for value and real salary relief, so it’s best not to overthink him.
Impressive rookie Hunter Henry took a knee injury last week and may be limited or miss Week 9, which would make Gates cash game gold. In fact, Henry has been limited in the offense ever since Gates has gotten healthy. Over their last 3 games together, Gates has won the target battle 25-15, even as he’s lost the yardage battle. If Henry can’t go, Gates will be a must-play, but either way he’ll carry an extremely prominent role that belies his meager $3,000 salary. He almost couldn’t help stumbling into the 4-5 catches he’d need for cash value.
GPP Options
Walker may no longer be a true target dominator in this offense, as Marcus Mariota is maturing and spreading the ball around more. Walker has seen just 17.6% of targets over the last 3 games, a solid mark but a far cry from his 2015 and early-2016 levels. As a result, he hasn’t posted the studly totals that will draw ownership at a position packed with cheap value. Use that to your advantage, in at least 10% of your GPP lineups. Walker remains a fine player and prominent cog in the offense, and we know he carries the weekly upside for 7-8 catches. If he can do that and/or catch a touchdown, he’ll easily reach his 18-point tournament marker. Just keep an eye on his availability, as he was limited in practice this week with groin tightness.
Rudolph started the Sam Bradford Era red-hot, but is now largely forgotten after a major cooling-off period. He’s still a shrewd Week 9 play, though, based on his Over the last 3 games he’s played with a healthy Stefon Diggs, Rudolph has drawn 21.1% of Bradford’s looks – second-highest among tight ends over that same span – as well as 2 of his 3 dark zone throws. His salary ($4,000) is higher than I’d like, as his floor is indeed in the 3-5 point range. But in GPP contests, I’m all over guys of his target share and touchdown potential.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Considerations
Kansas City
Over their last five games, they’ve notched 35, -2, 10, 11, and 11 points – good for both a floor and ceiling that are off the charts. They face the Jaguars, who can score but also hemorrhage sacks and giveaways. They cost at least $500 than they probably should, and they’ll be the chalk leaders at the position in every cash contest this Sunday. Follow the herd.
Carolina
Case Keenum and the Rams have flashed the ability to keep up in shootouts, but it’s a generally subpar offense that can’t stay out of its own way. They turn the ball over a lot (eight over their last three games), and their ace in the hole – a potentially dominant run game headlined by Todd Gurley – is neutralized by their poor offensive line. The Panthers defense has been hit-or-miss, but again, this is not a strong week to identify low-cost value at D/ST. Accept the talented defense that faces a turnover-prone Keenum, and enjoy the modest discount.
GPP Options
Denver
Oakland’s offense is humming along, so the Broncos don’t make for a very trendy pick. But remember, please, that finding the right DFS defense is about finding the splash plays, not chasing scoring numbers. And while the Raiders don’t allow many sacks or cough up many turnovers, few defensive units create those quite like these Broncos. Taking a stab here in 5-10% of your GPP lineups is a shrewd yet limited bet on a defense we know is explosive simply showing up Sunday explosive.
Detroit
It’s counter-intuitive to roll out a six-point road underdog. But the Vikings have been slipping, posting just 10 points in each of their last 2 games. And as Sam Bradford predictably shows himself to be an inefficient, limited passer, it’s hard to expect sudden improvement. The Lions aren’t a sexy pick, but when it’s all said and done, they could be a sexy play. They’ve registered multiple sacks in seven of their eight games, and they’ve forced six turnovers over their last four. You could do worse for this kind of salary relief.
